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This article outlines a formal model-based approach for inferring interregional age-specific migration streams in settings where such data are incomplete, inadequate, or unavailable. The estimation approach relies heavily on log-linear models, using them to impose some of the regularities exhibited by past age and spatial structures or to combine and borrow information drawn from other sources. The approach is illustrated using data from the 1990 and 2000 U.S. and Mexico censuses. 相似文献
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Andrei Rogers 《Mathematical Population Studies》2013,20(3):321-325
Modeling Multigroup Populations. Robert Schoen. New York: Plenum Press, 1988. 308 pp. $29.50. 相似文献
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Forecasting Mortality: A Parameterized Time Series Approach 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
This article links parameterized model mortality schedules with time series methods to develop forecasts of U.S. mortality to the year 2000. The use of model mortality schedules permits a relatively concise representation of the history of mortality by age and sex from 1900 to 1985, and the use of modern time series methods to extend this history forward to the end of this century allows for a flexible modeling of trend and the accommodation of changes in long-run mortality patterns. This pilot study demonstrates that the proposed procedure produces medium-range forecasts of mortality that meet the standard tests of accuracy in forecast evaluation and that are sensible when evaluated against the comparable forecasts produced by the Social Security Administration. 相似文献
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ABSTRACTIn the article, the complete convergence and complete moment convergence for weighted sums of sequences of random variables satisfying a maximal Rosenthal type inequality are studied. As an application, the Marcinkiewicz–Zygmund type strong law of large numbers is obtained. Our partial results generalize and improve the corresponding ones of Shen (2013). 相似文献
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American newspaper and magazine readers have often sought advice on personal and family problems by submitting questions to these publications. Soviet parents, similarly concerned with the proper rearing of their children, also seek expert advice. These questions and answers, taken from a journal published by the Academy of Pedagogical Sciences of the RSFSR, reveal the character traits which Soviet educators strive to have parents instill in their children. ("Answers to Parents' Questions," Semia i Shkola, 1960, No. 3.) 相似文献
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Age patterns of elderly migration: An international comparison 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Andrei Rogers 《Demography》1988,25(3):355-370
Age-specific rates of migration exhibit remarkably persistent regularities in age profile. These regularities seem to hold all over the world and across time. This article identifies some of the principal antecedents of such regularities, focusing especially on the age patterns of migration exhibited by the elderly. It examines the differentials introduced by gender, distance, and marital status. 相似文献
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Andrei Rogers 《Demography》1973,10(2):277-287
A principal feature of current methods of estimating demographic measures from incomplete data is the use of model life tables that approximate the mortality of a region for which reliable mortality data are unavailable. Observed decennial rates of survivorship may be used to identify out of a set of such model life tables one that best matches the observed data. This paper introduces the concept of a modelmultiregional life table and outlines a procedure for selecting an appropriate one using place-of-birth-by-residence data. 相似文献
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We develop a game‐theoretical framework to examine the implications of the introduction of a nonprofit “public option” in the U.S. health insurance market. In this model, heterogeneous consumers have to choose between two competing insurance plans. One plan is offered by a profit‐maximizing private insurer; the other by social‐welfare‐maximizing public option. In equilibrium, the distinct objectives of the two insurers induce adverse selection in consumer choice: the public option covers the less healthy consumers, yielding the more profitable segment of market to the private insurer. However, our empirical results suggest that both insurers will capture significant parts of the health insurance market. (JEL I11, L10, L21, L32) 相似文献