Demography and housing demand—what can we learn from residential construction data?

There are obvious reasons why residential construction should depend on the population’s age structure. We estimate this relation on Swedish time series data and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development panel data. Large groups of young adults are associated with higher rates of residential construction, but there is also a significant negative effect from those above 75. Age effects on residential investment are robust and forecast well out-of-sample in contrast to the corresponding house price results. This may explain why the debate around house prices and demography has been rather inconclusive. Rapidly aging populations in the industrialized world makes the future look bleak for the construction industry.

Age structure effects and growth in the OECD, 1950–1990

Economic growth depends on human resources and human needs. The demographic age structure shapes both of these factors. We study five-year data from the OECD countries 1950–1990 in the framework of an age structure augmented neoclassical growth model with gradual technical adjustment. The model performs well in both pooled and panel estimations. The growth patterns of GDP per worker (labor productivity) in the OECD countries are to a large extent explained by age structure changes. The 50–64 age group has a positive influence, and the group above 65 contributes negatively, while younger age groups have ambiguous effects. However, the mechanism behind these age effects is not yet resolved. Received: 16 January 1997/Accepted: 2 July 1998     

Low Fertility and Long-Run Growth in an Economy with a Large Public Sector

Recently it has been suggested that low fertility countries may be caught in a trap that is hard to get out of. One important mechanism in such a trap would be social interaction and its effect on the ideal family size. Such social interaction mechanisms are hard to capture in formal models, therefore we use an agent-based simulation model to investigate the issue. In our experimental setup a stable growth and population path is calibrated to Swedish data using the Swedish social policy setup. The model is provoked into a fertility trap by increasing relative child costs linked to positive growth. Even rather large increases in child benefits are then insufficient to get out of the trap. However, the small number of children temporarily enables the economy to grow faster for several decades. Removing the adaptation of social norms turns out to disarm the trap.     

Angle of regard: The effect of vertical viewing angle on the perception of facial expressions

Two studies were conducted using video records of real faces and three-dimensional schematic faces to investigate the perceptual distortions introduced by viewing faces at a vertical angle and their influence on the attribution of emotional expressions and attitudes. The results indicate that faces seen from below were perceived as morepositive and lessnegative, while faces seen from above appeared morenegative and lesspositive. This effect seems to be moderated by interindividual differences in facial morphology, and perhaps by differences in dynamic aspects of expressions. The second study investigated the respective contribution of the upper half and the lower half of the face to the perceptual distortion found. In general, judges based their attributions of emotional state more on cues from the upper half of the face.     

A Novel Approach to Chemical Mixture Risk Assessment—Linking Data from Population‐Based Epidemiology and Experimental Animal Tests

Humans are continuously exposed to chemicals with suspected or proven endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs). Risk management of EDCs presents a major unmet challenge because the available data for adverse health effects are generated by examining one compound at a time, whereas real‐life exposures are to mixtures of chemicals. In this work, we integrate epidemiological and experimental evidence toward a whole mixture strategy for risk assessment. To illustrate, we conduct the following four steps in a case study: (1) identification of single EDCs (“bad actors”)—measured in prenatal blood/urine in the SELMA study—that are associated with a shorter anogenital distance (AGD) in baby boys; (2) definition and construction of a “typical” mixture consisting of the “bad actors” identified in Step 1; (3) experimentally testing this mixture in an in vivo animal model to estimate a dose–response relationship and determine a point of departure (i.e., reference dose [RfD]) associated with an adverse health outcome; and (4) use a statistical measure of “sufficient similarity” to compare the experimental RfD (from Step 3) to the exposure measured in the human population and generate a “similar mixture risk indicator” (SMRI). The objective of this exercise is to generate a proof of concept for the systematic integration of epidemiological and experimental evidence with mixture risk assessment strategies. Using a whole mixture approach, we could find a higher rate of pregnant women under risk (13%) when comparing with the data from more traditional models of additivity (3%), or a compound‐by‐compound strategy (1.6%).     

Temporal Aspects of Facial Displays in Person and Expression Perception: The Effects of Smile Dynamics,Head-tilt,and Gender

Recent work suggests that temporal aspects of facial displays influence the perception of the perceived authenticity of a smile. In the present research, the impact of temporal aspects of smiles on person and expression perception was explored in combination with head-tilt and gender. One hundred participants were shown different types of smiles (slow versus fast onset) in combination with three forms of head-tilt (none, left, or right) exhibited by six computer-generated male and female encoders. The encoders were rated for perceived attractiveness, trustworthiness, dominance, and the smiles were rated for flirtatiousness and authenticity. Slow onset smiles led to more positive evaluations of the encoder and the smiles. Judgments were also significantly influenced by head-tilt and participant and encoder gender, demonstrating the combined effect of all three variables on expression and person perception.

An analysis of the encoding and decoding of spontaneous and posed smiles: The use of facial electromyography

Twenty subjects judged 80 video segments containing brief episodes of smiling behavior for expression intensity and happiness of the stimulus person. The video records were produced under instructions to (a) pose, (b) experience a happy feeling or (c) to both experience and show a happy feeling. An analysis of the integrated facial electromyogram (EMG), recorded over four muscle regions (zygomaticus major, depressor anguli oris, corrugator supercilii, andmasseter), showed that judgments of happiness and of intensity of expression could be predicted in a multiple regression analysis (multipleR = .64 for perceived happiness and .79 for perceived expression intensity). The perception of happiness was affected by EMG activity in regions other thanzygomaticus major. The use of parameters other than the mean of the integrated EMG, namely variance, skewness, kurtosis and properties of the amplitude distributions across time, provided accurate classification of the elicitation conditions (pose happiness versus experience happiness) in a discriminant analysis. For the discrimination of posed and felt smiles variables describing aspects of facial activity in the temporal domain were more useful than any of the other measures. It is suggested that facial EMG can be a useful tool in the analysis of both the encoding and decoding of expressive behavior. The results indicate the advantage of using multiple-site EMG recordings as well as of using amplitude and temporal characteristics of the facial EMG measures.The research was supported in part by funds associated with the John Sloan Dickey Third Century Professorship (Kleck) and in part by grant BNS-8507600 from the National Science Foundation (Lanzetta). Ursula Hess and Arvid Kappas were supported by stipends from the Deutscher Akademischer Austauschdienst (German Academic Exchange Service).     

Immigrants in the Old‐Age Pension System: The Case of Sweden

The article investigates incomes and especially state pensions 2008 among elderly immigrants who arrived in Sweden before 1970. At age 70 and above, the level of state old‐age pension for immigrant men was nearly the same and for immigrant women somewhat higher than for natives with similar characteristics. At age 65–66 the state pension was lower for immigrants than for their native counterparts. The differences in pensions for immigrants of different ages are probably due to changed rules in the Swedish state old‐age pension system from 2003. The new rules have hit different age groups in different ways. The gaps are partially levelled out when other incomes are included. The extent to which levelling occurs varies greatly between different immigrant groups. For immigrants who have arrived during the last decades, the future state old‐age pension outcomes are expected to be worse.

Policy Implications

• The Swedish Pensions Agency should set up a register of pensions from abroad. This will tell us to what extent old‐age pensions from the home country compensate for low old‐age pensions from the Swedish system.
• Better integration on the labour market is a powerful measure for reducing the risk of future low pensions among immigrants. This is a challenge for Swedish integration policy.
• To what extent can other parts of the Swedish welfare system in the future compensate individuals with low old‐age pensions?

     

Visual Narrative and Temporal Relevance: Segueing Instant Replay into Live Broadcast TV

Professional production of live TV combines real‐time and recorded video into a single broadcast stream. In “live” TV, non‐live “instant replay” footage can help viewers to make sense of what has just happened. This article shows how multi‐person TV production teams assemble timely and relevant instant replays that can be seamlessly combined with real‐time footage during live broadcasts. Detailed interaction analysis demonstrates how this work is dependent on coordinated practices, and how team members achieve this by orienting to narrative concerns across multiple temporalities to produce topically useful instant replays, displaying clip relevance, and help segueing transitions between the ongoing action and replay. We conclude by examining the interrelationships between the sequential flow of visual content, the role of talk in mediating time‐shifted visual alignments, and how members make their work visible and accountable to one another and to their intended audience.