Risk Analysis: Celebrating the Accomplishments and Embracing Ongoing Challenges

As part of the celebration of the 40th anniversary of the Society for Risk Analysis and Risk Analysis: An International Journal, this essay reviews the 10 most important accomplishments of risk analysis from 1980 to 2010, outlines major accomplishments in three major categories from 2011 to 2019, discusses how editors circulate authors’ accomplishments, and proposes 10 major risk-related challenges for 2020–2030. Authors conclude that the next decade will severely test the field of risk analysis.     

The quality of sustainability: Agroecological partnerships and the geographic branding of California winegrapes

Quality and sustainability are both socially constructed, ambiguous terms, but they have not been heretofore linked in the rural studies literature. The “quality turn” has received particular attention from researchers for its potential to organize linkages among various forces in agrofood systems, providing more income to producers by appealing to affluent, reflexive consumers. A distinct line of rural research has attended to the challenge of agro-environmental pollution and regulation, but this research trajectory has been subsumed under the broader paradigm of sustainability. This article seeks to contribute to discussions about quality in the agrofood sector by analyzing the potential of fusing rural resource protection practices with place-based marketing of enhanced quality, drawing from an empirical study of the California winegrape industry. In several California commodities, agroecological partnerships are becoming the chief vehicle for extending sustainable agricultural practices. California's winegrape farmers have undertaken more partnerships to greater effect than those of any other US crop, and they are now discursively linking their sustainable farming practices, environmental quality, and wine quality. This marks a new linkage of two heretofore discrete social imaginaries. This article argues that “quality” is a term that can conceptually link increasing consumer demand for differentiated product taste with increasing regulatory pressure for environmental protection. Synergistic benefits from such a linkage have the potential to strengthen rural development initiatives. Making progress toward sustainability requires collective action on the part of producers, and in some commodities, may mesh well with efforts to enhance foodstuff quality.     

Four‐Month Attentional Regulation and Its Prediction of Three‐Year Compliance

The extent to which 4‐month attentional regulation during an infant‐mother still‐face situation and 12‐month attachment security during the Strange Situation predicted rates of compliance and noncompliance during a cleanup task at 36 months was examined longitudinally in 70 infant‐mother dyads. Hierarchical multiple regression analyses indicated that infants who showed more attentional regulation during the still‐face situation with mothers later showed a higher rate of committed compliance and a lower rate of situational compliance during cleanup with mothers. Furthermore, lower levels of attentional regulation were later associated with higher rates of assertive behavior, but only for infants in an insecure attachment relationship.     

宗教社会学范式及理论的新进展

20世纪90年代以后,宗教社会学领域出现了新的理论范式。新范式是理解美国宗教的框架,旧范式则来源于欧洲的宗教传统。新范式的内容包括理性选择理论、似真性理论和仪式理论。目前,新范式开始运用于中国、印度等国家的宗教研究,似乎要成为普世性的理论模式。     

American High School Students’ Perceptions of Determinants of Life Satisfaction

Life satisfaction can be assessed either globally or with regard to satisfaction with specific domains of life. The latter multidimensional approach presumes science has delineated with confidence the specific domains most relevant to evaluating whether the criteria for a good life have been met. This paper shares results of a qualitative study of the perceived determinants of life satisfaction among 30 high school students who were diverse in terms of mental health; 6–10 participants were classified as complete mental health, vulnerable, symptomatic but content, or troubled at two time points separated by a year. Thematic analyses of transcribed individual interviews suggested eight themes that capture the domains of life adolescents perceive influence their happiness. These themes are compared and contrasted to domains included in existing multi-dimensional measures of youth life satisfaction. The factors likely to be particularly salient to students with different levels of mental health are noted.

     

Inheritance,poverty, and disability

Inheritance is a significant means of transferring wealth from one generation to the next, and therefore increasingly attracts attention from researchers and policy-makers working on intergenerational and multidimensional poverty. However, until now disabled persons have been overlooked in these discussions. This oversight is particularly unfortunate because, as a group, the estimated one billion people with disabilities (some 15% of the world’s population) are among the poorest and most marginalized of the global population. Over the past decade, a small but growing literature has examined the recursive connections between poverty and disability throughout the developing world. In this paper, we argue that disabled individuals are routinely denied inheritance rights in many low-income and middle-income countries, and that this is a significant and largely unrecognized contributor to their indigence. The denial of inheritance is both a social justice issue and a practice that can no longer be overlooked if disabled persons are to be brought into the development mainstream.     

Perceptions of transition-related health and mental health services among transgender adults

The opportunity to live authentically is critical for the well-being of transgender individuals. For many this requires accessing transition-related services. Current knowledge of transition-related care is limited. This study aims to elucidate experiences and needs of transgender individuals (N = 65) related to (a) therapeutic support, (b) medical care, and (c) aspects of living authentically in order to inform the development and delivery of trans-affirmative services. Findings reveal challenges accessing health care providers with trans-specific competency; gaps between critical aspects of transition-related care and receipt of services; and heterogeneity of experiences and needs. Recommendations for improving transgender-affirmative services are provided.     

Exploring the role of the Senate Majority Leader's political public relations efforts

Grounded in first- and second-level agenda building, this study explored the role of the U.S. Senate Majority Leader in shaping the salience of issues and issue attributes in news media coverage and policymaking in 2011. A total of 358 public relations messages, 164 newspaper articles, and 83 policymaking documents were analyzed. Significant correlations were found supporting agenda-building linkages at both levels. Different types of information subsidies were explored, including press releases, blog posts, Facebook posts, and Twitter messages.     

Keep Your Friends Close? Supply Chain Design and Disruption Risk

In this article, we evaluate the relationship between supply chain design decisions and supply chain disruption risk. We explore two supply chain design strategies: (i) the dispersion of supply chain partners to reduce supply chain disruption risk versus (ii) the co‐location of supply chain partners to reduce supply chain disruption risk. In addition, we assess supply chain disruption risk from three perspectives: the inbound material flow from the supplier (supply side), the internal production processes (internal), and the outbound material flow to the customer (customer side) as a disruption can occur at any of these locations. We measure disruption risk in terms of stoppages in flows, reductions in flow, close calls (disruptions that were prevented at the last minute), disruption duration (time until normal operation flow was restored), and the spread of disruptions all the way through the supply chain. We use seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) to analyze our data, finding that lead times, especially supply side lead times, are significantly associated with higher levels of supply chain disruption risk. We find co‐location with suppliers appears to have beneficial effects to the reduction of disruption duration, and, overall supply side factors have a higher impact when it comes to supply chain disruption risk than comparable customer side factors.