Analysis of Regional Scale Risk of Whirling Disease in Populations of Colorado and Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout Using a Bayesian Belief Network Model

Introduction and spread of the parasite Myxobolus cerebralis, the causative agent of whirling disease, has contributed to the collapse of wild trout populations throughout the intermountain west. Of concern is the risk the disease may have on conservation and recovery of native cutthroat trout. We employed a Bayesian belief network to assess probability of whirling disease in Colorado River and Rio Grande cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii pleuriticus and Oncorhynchus clarkii virginalis, respectively) within their current ranges in the southwest United States. Available habitat (as defined by gradient and elevation) for intermediate oligochaete worm host, Tubifex tubifex, exerted the greatest influence on the likelihood of infection, yet prevalence of stream barriers also affected the risk outcome. Management areas that had the highest likelihood of infected Colorado River cutthroat trout were in the eastern portion of their range, although the probability of infection was highest for populations in the southern, San Juan subbasin. Rio Grande cutthroat trout had a relatively low likelihood of infection, with populations in the southernmost Pecos management area predicted to be at greatest risk. The Bayesian risk assessment model predicted the likelihood of whirling disease infection from its principal transmission vector, fish movement, and suggested that barriers may be effective in reducing risk of exposure to native trout populations. Data gaps, especially with regard to location of spawning, highlighted the importance in developing monitoring plans that support future risk assessments and adaptive management for subspecies of cutthroat trout.     

Child Protection and the Media: Lessons from the Last Three Decades

Summary During the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, sensationalist coverage ofa series of celebrated child abuse scandals in England and Walesresulted in the repeated vilification in the mass media of thosechild welfare agencies deemed culpable for the deaths of thechildren involved. This paper explores the contribution of themedia to the creation of the climate of fear, blame and mistrustwhich seems to have become endemic within the field of childprotection. It suggests that damaging distortions have beenintroduced into the child protection system as a result of thedefensive responses of the relevant authorities at both nationaland local level to the media onslaught. A more strategic approachto understanding and managing media coverage of this difficultfield is outlined.     

Perturbed robust linear estimating equations for confidentiality protection in remote analysis

National statistical agencies and other data custodians collect and hold a vast amount of survey and census data, containing information vital for research and policy analysis. However, the problem of allowing analysis of these data, while protecting respondent confidentiality, has proved challenging to address. In this paper we will focus on the remote analysis approach, under which a confidential dataset is held in a secure environment under the direct control of the data custodian agency. A computer system within the secure environment accepts a query from an analyst, runs it on the data, then returns the results to the analyst. In particular, the analyst does not have direct access to the data at all, and cannot view any microdata records. We further focus on the fitting of linear regression models to confidential data in the presence of outliers and influential points, such as are often present in business data. We propose a new method for protecting confidentiality in linear regression via a remote analysis system, that provides additional confidentiality protection for outliers and influential points in the data. The method we describe in this paper was designed for the prototype DataAnalyser system developed by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, however the method would be suitable for similar remote analysis systems.     

Significant harm: making professional judgements

Judging whether a child is suffering or is likely to suffer significant harm has become a critical task for professionals working with children and their families in England and Wales. Yet little guidance is available about what the phrase means in its entirety and how it should be applied in practice. This study set out to examine how the phrase was used in practice by a selected sample of experienced health and social work staff. The evidence collected suggests flaws in the general approach adopted by professionals to identification and assessment in child protection cases. The data indicate a heavy concentration of attention on the weaknesses of families being assessed rather than their strengths and on parents rather than children. Problems are identified in responding effectively to long-term, chronic abuse such as emotional abuse and neglect. The study recommends changes in practice based on these findings which have been implemented by a wide range of practice agencies within the study area. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Young people and prostitution: an end to the beginning?

Since the mid‐1970s, we have developed in England and Wales a complex and sophisticated inter‐agency system dedicated to protecting children from abuse. However, we have failed to apply it effectively to the protection of young people sexually abused through involvement in prostitution. This paper examines some of the reasons for this failure and identifies a number of characteristics of the child protection system which seem to fit it poorly for work with these young people. It is argued that lasting improvement in their well‐being depends on the creation of truly ‘joined‐up’, integrated, interdisciplinary services addressing the whole range of their needs. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.