Religious Nongovernmental Organizations: An Exploratory Analysis

This paper represents the first systematic attempt at an analysis of religious nongovernmental organizations (RNGOs). Largely ignored as an organizational field, RNGOs constitute a new breed of religious actors shaping global policy–an organizational hybrid of religious beliefs and social activism at local, national, and international levels. This paper proposes a definition of RNGOs, traces the emergence of RNGOs from an historical perspective, and situates them in their current religious and sociopolitical contexts. Drawing on interviews and documentary data from a sample of 263 United Nations-affiliated RNGOs, the author proposes an analytical framework to examine the religious, organizational, strategic, and service dimensions of these organizations. Religious nongovernmental organizations' unique contributions to the redefinition of a just society as well as the sociopolitical challenges arising from their religious identity are discussed.     

Modelling human immunodeficiency virus ribonucleic acid levels with finite mixtures for censored longitudinal data

The measurement of human immunodeficiency virus ribonucleic acid levels over time leads to censored longitudinal data. Suitable models for dynamic modelling of these levels need to take this data characteristic into account. If groups of patients with different developments of the levels over time are suspected the model class of finite mixtures of mixed effects models with censored data is required. We describe the model specification and derive the estimation with a suitable expectation-maximization algorithm. We propose a convenient implementation using closed form formulae for the expected mean and variance of the truncated multivariate distribution. Only efficient evaluation of the cumulative multivariate normal distribution function is required. Model selection as well as methods for inference are discussed. The application is demonstrated on the clinical trial ACTG 315 data.     

Wearing corset,losing shape: The euro's effect on trade imbalances

When does trade become a one-way relationship? We study bilateral trade balances for a sample of 18 European countries over the period from 1948 through 2008. We find that, with the introduction of the euro, trade imbalances among euro area members widened considerably, even after allowing for permanent asymmetries in trade competitiveness within pairs of countries or in the overall trade competitiveness of individual countries. This is consistent with indications that pair-wise trade tends to be more balanced when nominal exchange rates are flexible. Intra-euro area imbalances also seem to have become more persistent with the introduction of the euro, some of which is linked to labor market inflexibility. Reviewing the direction of imbalances, we find that bilateral trade surpluses are decreasing in the real exchange rate, decreasing in growth differentials, and increasing in the relative volatility of national business cycles. Finally, countries with relatively higher fiscal deficits and less flexible labor and product markets exhibit systematically lower trade surpluses than others.     

Empirical Likelihood Inference for the Rao‐Hartley‐Cochran Sampling Design

The Hartley‐Rao‐Cochran sampling design is an unequal probability sampling design which can be used to select samples from finite populations. We propose to adjust the empirical likelihood approach for the Hartley‐Rao‐Cochran sampling design. The approach proposed intrinsically incorporates sampling weights, auxiliary information and allows for large sampling fractions. It can be used to construct confidence intervals. In a simulation study, we show that the coverage may be better for the empirical likelihood confidence interval than for standard confidence intervals based on variance estimates. The approach proposed is simple to implement and less computer intensive than bootstrap. The confidence interval proposed does not rely on re‐sampling, linearization, variance estimation, design‐effects or joint inclusion probabilities.     

What Cruising Infants Understand about Support for Locomotion

“Cruising” infants can only walk using external support to augment their balance. We examined cruisers' understanding of support for upright locomotion under four conditions: cruising over a wooden handrail at chest height, a large gap in the handrail, a wobbly unstable handrail, and an ill‐positioned low handrail. Infants distinguished among the support properties of the handrails with differential attempts to cruise and handrail‐specific forms of haptic exploration and gait modifications. They consistently attempted the wood handrail, rarely attempted the gap, and occasionally attempted the low and wobbly handrails. On the wood and gap handrails, attempt rates matched the probability of cruising successfully, but on the low and wobbly handrails, attempt rates under‐ and overestimated the probability of success, respectively. Haptic exploration was most frequent and varied on the wobbly handrail, and gait modifications—including previously undocumented “knee cruising”—were most frequent and effective on the low handrail. Results are discussed in terms of developmental changes in the meaning of support.     

Consumption Dynamics During Recessions

Are there times when durable spending is less responsive to economic stimulus? We argue that aggregate durable expenditures respond more sluggishly to economic shocks during recessions because microeconomic frictions lead to declines in the frequency of households' durable adjustment. We show this by first using indirect inference to estimate a heterogeneous agent incomplete markets model with fixed costs of durable adjustment to match consumption dynamics in PSID microdata. We then show that aggregating this model delivers an extremely procyclical Impulse Response Function (IRF) of durable spending to aggregate shocks. For example, the response of durable spending to an income shock in 1999 is estimated to be almost twice as large as if it occurred in 2009. This procyclical IRF holds in response to standard business cycle shocks as well as in response to various policy shocks, and it is robust to general equilibrium. After estimating this robust theoretical implication of micro frictions, we provide additional direct empirical evidence for its importance using both cross‐sectional and time‐series data.     

A Learning Curve Analysis of Expert System Use*

In this article, we study how an expert system affects novice problem solving in a financial risk analysis domain. We demonstrate that novice performance is improved after exposure to an expert system. Further, we show that novice performance continues to improve when the system is withdrawn. By comparing learning curves for people with exposure to those without, we can assess how much the system has benefitted its users. We demonstrate a quantitative methodology to measure the increment of learning due to the use of an information technology. We also explore the issue of how expertise is transferred from the system to the user.     

Being Poor and Feeling Rich or Vice Versa? The Determinants of Unequal Income Positions in Old Age Across Europe

Individual prosperity and welfare can be measured using both objective and subjective criteria. Although theory and previous research suggest that these two methods can produce corresponding results, the measurements can also be inconsistent. Against this background, the current paper investigates the relationship between the objective income position of older Europeans (aged 50?+?years) and their perception of their financial situation, using the seventh wave of the Survey of Health, Aging, and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) conducted in 2017. The main research questions include (1) how is objective income distributed in old age across Europe?, (2) how do elderly Europeans evaluate their income situation subjectively?, (3) is there a discrepancy between the objective prosperity position and their subjective perception observable?, (4) are there country-specific differences that are observable?, and (5) how can such discrepancies be explained?

The results show that objective income positions can be congruent with subjective self-perceptions, both good (well-being) and bad (deprivation), of one’s income situation. However, this is not always the case, and country-specific variations do exist. In analyzing the causes of the 2 forms of nonconformance—namely, adaptation (satisfaction paradox) and dissonance (dissatisfaction dilemma)—this paper concludes that sociodemographic and socioeconomic determinants alone cannot account for discrepancies. The consideration of certain social-psychological influences or personality traits and especially social comparison processes (namely, with one’s past) is essential in explaining both the satisfaction paradox and the dissatisfaction dilemma.

     

Parenting in the Context of Deportation Risk

Nearly 5.1 million children younger than age 18 live with at least one undocumented parent, about 7% of the U.S. child population. Between 2010 and 2013, an estimated 300,000 parents of U.S. citizen children were deported. Raising children in the context of deportation risk increases overall parenting stress for undocumented Latino parents. To investigate this and understand the experience of undocumented parenting, the authors interviewed 70 undocumented parents in two Southwest cities from 2012 to 2013. The authors frame their analysis using the lens of the problem of “illegality.” There are three domains of stressors associated with parenting in the context of deportation risk: trapped parenting, threat of family separation, and altered family processes. The authors discuss these findings in the context of the literature on undocumented families and parenting stress and connect these findings to the current sociopolitical context experienced by Latino families in the United States .