Empirical likelihood confidence intervals for the mean of a population containing many zero values

If a population contains many zero values and the sample size is not very large, the traditional normal approximation‐based confidence intervals for the population mean may have poor coverage probabilities. This problem is substantially reduced by constructing parametric likelihood ratio intervals when an appropriate mixture model can be found. In the context of survey sampling, however, there is a general preference for making minimal assumptions about the population under study. The authors have therefore investigated the coverage properties of nonparametric empirical likelihood confidence intervals for the population mean. They show that under a variety of hypothetical populations, these intervals often outperformed parametric likelihood intervals by having more balanced coverage rates and larger lower bounds. The authors illustrate their methodology using data from the Canadian Labour Force Survey for the year 2000.     

小额信贷之违约概率模型:特别考虑异质性

在新巴塞尔资本协议(New Basel Capital Accord)对金融全球化的冲击及金融机构改善资产质量及合并政策的影响下,我国台湾地区金融业进入激烈合并竞争的时代.许多银行颇受降低逾放比率及增加净值报酬率与资产报酬率两难之困扰.消费性信用贷款产品利差大、风险分散,是金融机构授信经营极重要的产品.实证结果显示,采用世代研究(cohort study)建立之模型对样本数据之拟合程度较个案对照研究法(case-control study)的解释变异量为佳,且较符合新巴塞尔资本协议规定及科学程序.虽然Logistic 回归模型在建立逾期概率模型上广泛地被使用,但要求存在于同构型的变异数Var=np(1-p)假设上,且在数据分析上常因为出现变异数之异质性问题,故可采用调整变异数异质性之方法.     

俄罗斯东正教的社会整合与道德教化作用研究

俄罗斯是一个有着深刻宗教情结的民族.东正教作为文化现象和意识形态,深深根植于俄罗斯民众的意识里,浓浓地融入俄罗斯民族的精神中,深刻地影响着俄国的历史与现实.为实现国家统一并加强皇权,以君权神授为宗旨的基督教作为最有力的思想武器被罗斯统治者"请入"罗斯.至此,无论是在鞑靼蒙古人入侵时期,还是在第一、二次卫国战争等俄苏历史的紧要关头,俄罗斯东正教均发挥了其社会整合与道德教化作用,并在促进国家统一、弘扬爱国主义传统、凝聚民族精神、规范民众道德和维护社会稳定等方面做出了积极而重要的历史贡献.     

WTO与行政复议

行政复议是WTO法律框架中有关法律救济机制的重要组成部分。从总体上看 ,我国的行政复议制度与WTO规则是相适应的 ,但在具体制度设计上它与WTO的要求尚存在一定的差距。为确保WTO规则在国内统一、公正、合理的实施 ,我们应该进一步增强行政复议机关的独立性 ,树立行政复议的公正形象 ,同时修改《行政复议法》 ,赋予相对人对行政终局裁决的司法审查请求权。     

数学教学中渗透创造性思维训练的尝试

通过对联想思维、求异思维、逆向思维、求通求变思维训练的分析,阐述了培养创造性思维的具体方法.     

Parameterized integer programming models for multifactors representatives apportionment

This paper develops parameterized integer programming models for the problem of multifactors representatives apportionment. In the light of the idea of the optimal uniform approximation theory, we formulate such apportionment problem as three mathematical models. In all of the models, the total number of representatives is regarded as an adaptable parameter, the unfair degree of apportionment is evaluated using the norm-∞ of the vector, and the social characteristics of the different “units” are described by introducing the concept of the factor level matrix. In addition, we also attempt to describe some natural properties of each member in our models.     

从交流和传播的视角解读越文化

本组讨论以越文化研究为例,探索地域文化研究的方法与视角。朱文斌一文检讨了当前越文化研究范式的局限,提出了范式转换的问题;陈越、梁涌两文分别从空间与时间的存在与发展上对越文化作了动态描述。其中,陈文从文化模式的角度,把越文化概括为“剑—书”文化;梁文则从交流与传播的角度,揭示了越文化的形成与发展。     

心中的牵挂

午后,沿着熟悉的小路,我慢慢走着。走进了这座城镇,便走进了我心中的牵挂……路两旁仍然是那一排排高高的梧桐树,树干那么直,那么粗,树冠那么大,它的叶子像一个个大手掌,它的果实像一粒粒小青豆。在夏季,梧桐树枝繁叶茂,张开着“大手掌”为我遮挡炎炎烈日。我喜欢行走在这些树荫里,微笑着看人们安静或嘈杂地从我身边走过。有如轻风吹过时,心神一爽。现在,两旁的梧桐树叶已变黄,秋天即至。眼前景色一片灿然。阳光从树中透出,细细碎碎的洒满一路,晃着人的眼睛。很美,但无可奈何地透着说不出的凄凉。一阵风吹过,凉凉地夹杂着几片梧桐树叶,…