Socio-political forecasting and management information systems

This paper is an attempt to place the forecasting of socio-political variables in the context of actual information needs of industrial companies. Initially discussion is of the effect of socio-political variables upon companies with a review of this significance for decision makers and decision takers. An attempt is then made to categorise existing forecasting techniques in the context of socio-political data whilst regard is paid to the possible effects of socio-political variables on companies. Discussion is then broadened to a consideration of current practice both in the UK and in the USA. Problems implicit in current practice are commented upon and the paper ends with the conclusion that socio-political forecasting is currently significant to many companies and that there is a major potential role for management scientists to play in the development and implementation of appropriate techniques.     

Cross-state variation in Medicaid programs and female labor supply

Using a pooled cross-section data set from the 1980 through 1993 Current Population Survey March Supplements, we test if different Medicaid benefit levels across states impact the labor supply behavior of female heads of households. The ordinary least square (OLS) results support the prediction that Medicaid expenditures reduce labor supply. Controlling for state fixed or random effects alters the effect of both AFDC and Medicaid on the decision to participate as well as the number of hours worked. We also find that while the effects of program generosity are sensitive to the inclusion of state effects those of variation in eligibility thresholds are not.     

Navigating rough waters: an overview of psychological aspects of surrogacy

This article provides an overview of the social and psychological aspects surrounding the surrogacy process including attitudes about surrogacy, perceptions and problems of surrogate mothers and intended/social parents, and questions concerning children resulting from contractual parenting. Review of the literature on contractual parenting reveals a wealth of discussion about the ethical, moral, legal, and psychological implications, but limited empirical data on the psychological and social aspects. Future research can provide empirical evidence as a foundation for counseling at all phases of the surrogacy process .     

Teaching and research in quantitative methods in university management schools

Much has been written and said about the education and development of operational researchers and management scientists from a specialist departmental viewpoint. Considerably less attention has been devoted to the role of management schools in this process and, more importantly, in their provision of a general education in quantitative methods for all their postgraduate taught course students. This paper aims to make a contribution towards rectifying this relative neglect. Moreover, it specifically contrasts the two sets of activities and argues that they are largely fulfilling different purposes and satisfying in the main different job markets. The paper also addresses some of the problems of management science researchers within a management school milieu.     

Modelling and measurement in retailing practice

The retailing sector has traditionally attracted the attention of economists and marketing specialists but only comparatively recently, at least in the UK, have management scientists become involved. Yet there is much of a measurement and modelling character in retailing to which the management scientist can contribute most usefully. This paper examines two areas of major practical importance to retailers: labour productivity, store location and size. Basic measurement and the establishment of standards can lead to considerable performance improvements in the first area. The second problem area is strategic rather than operational in essence and lends itself to either mathematical modelling or empirical techniques or to a combination of the two approaches.     

The chief executive and his information system

The authors examine the attitudes of British chief executives towards their information systems using recent survey evidence. They discuss the chief executive's individual computation needs and the extent to which he satisfies these personally, his attitudes towards computer-based information and corporate models, and his general informational and analytical requirements. Of particular interest, is the relative contribution as judged by chief executives of intuitive judgement, computer-based analysis and manual analysis respectively to strategic decision-taking; comparative valuations of formal and informal information systems are also ascertained. On the evidence provided by the chief executives, future prospects for computer systems and modelling techniques at strategic level are generally sound although it is difficult to see them achieving the dominance at top managerial level once envisaged by the more optimistic and imaginative management scientists and cyberneticians.     

Risk-Taking,Delay Discounting,and Time Perspective in Adolescent Gamblers: An Experimental Study

Previous research has demonstrated that adult pathological gamblers (compared to controls) show risk-proneness, foreshortened time horizon, and preference for immediate rewards. No study has ever examined the interplay of these factors in adolescent gambling. A total of 104 adolescents took part in the research. Two equal-number groups of adolescent non-problem and problem gamblers, defined using the South Oaks Gambling Screen-Revised for Adolescents, were administered the Balloon Analogue Risk Task (BART), the Consideration of Future Consequences (CFC-14) scale, and the Monetary Choice Questionnaire (MCQ). Adolescent problem gamblers were found to be more risk-prone, more oriented to the present, and to discount delay rewards more steeply than adolescent non-problem gamblers. Results of logistic regression analysis revealed that BART, MCQ, and CFC scores predicted gambling severity. These novel finding provides the first evidence of an association among problematic gambling, high risk-taking proneness, steep delay discounting, and foreshortened time horizon among adolescents. It may be that excessive gambling induces shortsighted behaviors that, in turn, facilitate gambling involvement.