SELECTING PARAMETERS FOR SHORT-TERM FORECASTING TECHNIQUES

The objective of this paper is to discover which of three forecasting modes used to select parameters for four short-term forecasting techniques minimizes errors. The study also examines whether the amount of historical data used to find parameters contributes to forecasting success. The results show the traditional one-ahead search routine works well in some, but not all, forecasting situations. Also, forecasting errors appear to decline when more historical data are included in the parameter search.     

$7.8 Billion for Everglades Restoration: Why Do Environmentalists Look So Worried?

The Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan, enacted in 2000, is a $7.8 billion federal/state investment in restoring the Florida Everglades ecosystem. The plan is a negotiated compromise between divergent interests in south Florida and promises to provide water and flood control for urban and agricultural users while maintaining a priority commitment to the natural system when allocating water produced by the 30-year project. The environmental community calls for independent scientific review of un-tested technologies, early and substantial hydrologic benefits to the remaining Everglades, including Everglades National Park, and strong programmatic regulations of the federal project to ensure that ecological restoration remains its primary purpose in spite of inherently conflicting interests at the state and local level.     

A Rapid Review of Sexual Wellbeing Definitions and Measures: Should We Now Include Sexual Wellbeing Freedom?

An increasing number of studies refer to sexual wellbeing and/or seek to measure it, and the term appears across various policy documents, including sexual health frameworks in the UK. We conducted a rapid review to determine how sexual wellbeing has been defined, qualitatively explored and quantitatively measured. Eligible studies selected for inclusion from OVID Medline, PsychInfo, PubMed, Embase, CINAHL were: in English language, published after 2007, were peer-reviewed full articles, focused on sexual wellbeing (or proxies for, e.g. satisfaction, function), and quantitatively or qualitatively assessed sexual wellbeing. We included studies with participants aged 16–65. Given study heterogeneity, our synthesis and findings are reported using a narrative approach. We identified 162 papers, of which 10 offered a definition of sexual wellbeing. Drawing upon a socio-ecological model, we categorised the 59 dimensions we identified from studies under three main domains: cognitive-affect (31 dimensions); inter-personal (22 dimensions); and socio-cultural (6 dimensions). Only 11 papers were categorised under the socio-cultural domain, commonly focusing on gender inequalities or stigma. We discuss the importance of conceptualising sexual wellbeing as individually experienced but socially and structurally influenced, including assessing sexual wellbeing freedom: a person’s freedom to achieve sexual wellbeing, or their real opportunities and liberties.     

#Engagement: use of Twitter chats to construct nominal participatory spaces during health crises

Although Twitter chats and other forms of social media engagement events are idealized in the literature as opportunities for dialogic communication between organizations and individuals, less is known about how engagement is operationalized within these spaces. Using textual and content analysis, we conducted two studies to explore how health organizations engage with the public via Twitter chats during the Ebola and Zika outbreaks. In official records of Ebola chats, the organization addressed both hostile and neutral public questions that pressed for specification of disease characteristics and protocol. However, in a content analysis of all public tweets sent during a later Zika chat, we found that questions were privileged, and other tweet forms and themes were excluded from the participatory space. Specifically, public comments demonstrating expertise or extending the topic of the chat were not addressed by the organization. Our analysis provides insight into the implicit rules governing how organizations engage with the public online during a rapidly evolving health crisis. We argue that the question–response dyad is a form of ideal communication that suggests engagement but maintains organizational expertise.     

Fertility and nuptiality changes in Spain from the late 18th to the early 20th century

Abstract 3.1. A regional approach often reveals features of population trends not evident in national data. We have already pointed out that the 1768 census followed the ecclesiastical sub-divisions of the country; therefore its territorial data are not comparable with those derived from later enumerations. The 1787 and 1797 censuses, on the other hand, were based on civil sub-divisions, which can be compared, when aggregated, with later censuses of the modern statistical era.     

Professional Advocacy as a Force for Resistance in Child Welfare

Correspondence to Jane Dalrymple, University of the West of England, Glenside Campus, Blackberry Hill, Stapleton, Bristol BS16 1DD, UK Summary The development of child and youth advocacy is a relativelyrecent phenomenon, increasingly recognized by both practitionersand politicians as a way of establishing communication spacesfor young people who are looked after in state care. Literatureto date has focused on the development and underpinning principlesof child and youth advocacy, which is a necessary starting pointfor establishing good practice. However, while policy and legislationpromote the view that young people are actively involved indecision making, their advocates can be placed in a passiveposition, effectively denying young people a position as socialactors. This paper argues that the problemitizing of independentadvocacy as unprofessional can serve to further marginalizeyoung people and render advocates impotent. It suggests thatwhile it is structurally necessary for adults to take on theadvocacy role, this must be undertaken in a way that activelyresists the oppression of young people. Through considerationof accounts of advocacy activity, by way of illustration, thepaper takes the debate beyond the principles of participation,empowerment and rights to a consideration of strategies thattake into account the complexities of advocacy practice in childwelfare.     

Effect of Seminar on Compassion on student self-compassion,mindfulness and well-being: A randomized controlled trial

ABSTRACT

Objective: Mindfulness-based interventions have been shown to have psychological benefits in college students. We explored the effects of an academic Seminar on Compassion on student psychological health. Participants: Forty-one participants (14 male, 27 female, mean age 19.8 ± 1.4 years) were assessed pre- and post- spring semesters 2013 and 2014. Methods: Students were randomized to the Seminar on Compassion or a wait-list control group. Participants completed self-report measures on anxiety, depression, perceived stress, self-compassion, compassion and mindfulness. Salivary alpha-amylase was also assessed. Results: At baseline, self-compassion and mindfulness were negatively correlated with depression, anxiety, and perceived stress. There were significant changes between the intervention and control group from Time 1 to Time 2 in mindfulness, self-compassion, compassion, and salivary alpha-amylase; however, there were no significant changes in depression, anxiety, and perceived stress. Conclusions: The course was effective in increasing mindfulness, self-compassion and compassion, and decreasing a salivary marker of stress.     

Constructions of child and youth advocacy: emerging issues in advocacy practice

The development of child and youth advocacy has been informed by varying theoretical perspectives and in the last decade has been increasingly incorporated into policy and legislation for young people in receipt of welfare services. Through examining the varying perspectives of young people, advocates and commissioners of advocacy services it can be seen that although there is some consensus about how advocacy should be provided, the construction of advocacy by adults may have a significant impact on how it is experienced by young people. This paper draws on material from five advocacy projects to examine how advocacy is constructed by those involved in the provision and receipt of services. It argues that there is a danger that the construction of advocacy in an adult proceduralised way is likely to compromise its potential to challenge the structures that deny young people opportunities to participate in decision making about their lives.     

Let's do it! Advocacy,young people and social work education

This paper evaluates a pilot project that aimed to promote the participation of young people in the education and training of social care professionals. An accredited training programme for young people was developed and delivered. The young people involved then participated as educators in a Diploma in Social Work programme. The paper draws on the experiences of project staff, the young people and the social work students, and locates its analysis within the literature on citizenship, children's rights, advocacy and empowerment.