Determinants of Contraceptive Use in Egypt: A Multilevel Approach

The increasing use of family planning methods seems to be the intermediate determinant which mostly influences the fertility decline in developing countries, and in particular in those countries which are in an advanced phase of demographic transition such as Egypt. Moreover large countries, like Egypt, are characterized by very different geographical realities and even by strong regional heterogeneities. The aim of this study is the analysis of the determinants of contraceptive use in Egypt, with particular reference to the differentials due to the socio-economic context and to the area of residence. To estimate each individual and regional factors’ effect on contraceptive use, a logistic two-level random intercept model is fitted to EDHS 2000 data; the use of a multilevel analysis is suggested by the two-level data structure: the first level units are the women, the second level units are their regions of residence.     

Zero variance Markov chain Monte Carlo for Bayesian estimators

Interest is in evaluating, by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation, the expected value of a function with respect to a, possibly unnormalized, probability distribution. A general purpose variance reduction technique for the MCMC estimator, based on the zero-variance principle introduced in the physics literature, is proposed. Conditions for asymptotic unbiasedness of the zero-variance estimator are derived. A central limit theorem is also proved under regularity conditions. The potential of the idea is illustrated with real applications to probit, logit and GARCH Bayesian models. For all these models, a central limit theorem and unbiasedness for the zero-variance estimator are proved (see the supplementary material available on-line).     

Art, Nationalism and War: Political Futurism in Italy (1909–1944)

Futurism was launched as a revolutionary, iconoclastic movement encompassing the arts, politics and society. It rejected all ties with the past and preached with missionary zeal the advent of a new man and the total reconstruction of society. Despite its powerful impact on Italian politics, the importance of Futurism has scarcely been addressed in the social sciences. Yet, it continues to attract the interest of historians, literary critics and art historians. In fact, the major methodological hindrance for a more articulated research remains the latter's unchallenged hegemony, with their selective propensity to eulogistic accounts. The result is the neglect of Futurism's political dimension as a fully fledged nationalist movement. Aiming to redress this imbalance, the article analyzes Futurist politics through the movement's actions, proclaims and manifestos. It distinguishes early Futurism's anti-establishment ultra-nationalism (1909–1915) from the more institutionalized 'muscular' patriotism adopted after its merger with Fascism (1924–1944). In a global context of mounting nationalist state-building and spiralling inter-state rivalries, Italy's unitary, homogenizing nationalism provided a congenial matrix for the advent of war-mongering patriotism and irredentism. Here, Futurism found an ideal structure of political opportunities, in which it could articulate its unique repertoire of action. The futurists' peculiar talent in 'manufacturing consent' through the media was put to test in their marketing of war as adventurous boundary-building enterprise, a vision subsequently appropriated by Fascism.     

Individual and Contextual Correlates of Economic Difficulties in Old Age in Europe

With data drawn from the second public release version of the “Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe” (SHARE), we scrutinize individual and contextual (regional) correlates of economic difficulties among older Europeans, aged 65 or more. A logistic multi-level regression model with random intercept shows that the risk of being relatively poor varies considerably among the aged. We verified that the factors affecting poverty in each area are not merely the weighted sum of the effect of the more disadvantaged people within the same area, which also exists: poverty appears also significantly influenced by the specific context of residence.     

Does innovation lead to global orientation? Empirical evidence from a sample of Italian firms

This paper analyses the relationship between innovation at firm and industry level, and the global vs regional strategy of multinational enterprises (MNEs). Based on data from a sample of large Italian manufacturing firms, the analysis shows that technological assets affect a firm’s ability to overcome the liability of (regional) foreignness: the extent to which MNEs can exploit their firm-specific technological advantages is greater within their home region, but they also exploit them outside it. Furthermore, the results show that a firm’s foreign (outside the home country) and global sales (outside the home region) are higher, the greater the technology intensity of the industry in which they operate. These findings suggest that, although MNEs tend to operate regionally rather than globally, their strategic orientation is contingent upon firm- and industry-specific factors. Managers need to take the potential for globally exploiting R&D investments into account, even if it may not be equally successful within and outside the home region, and may be constrained by a number of inter-regional barriers.     

Increased risk of emergency department presentations for bronchiolitis in infants exposed to air pollution

Air pollution has been linked to an increased risk of several respiratory diseases in children, especially respiratory tract infections. The present study aims to evaluate the association between pediatric emergency department (PED) presentations for bronchiolitis and air pollution. PED presentations due to bronchiolitis in children aged less than 1 year were retrospectively collected from 2007 to 2018 in Padova, Italy, together with daily environmental data. A conditional logistic regression based on a time-stratified case-crossover design was performed to evaluate the association between PED presentations and exposure to NO₂, PM2.5, and PM10. Models were adjusted for temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, and public holidays. Delayed effects in time were evaluated using distributed lag non-linear models. Odds ratio for lagged exposure from 0 to 14 days were obtained. Overall, 2251 children presented to the PED for bronchiolitis. Infants’ exposure to higher concentrations of PM10 and PM2.5 in the 5 days before the presentation to the PED increased the risk of accessing the PED by more than 10%, whereas high concentrations of NO₂ between 2 and 12 days before the PED presentation were associated with an increased risk of up to 30%. The association between pollutants and infants who required hospitalization was even greater. A cumulative effect of NO₂ among the 2 weeks preceding the presentation was also observed. In summary, PM and NO₂ concentrations are associated with PED presentations and hospitalizations for bronchiolitis. Exposure of infants to air pollution could damage the respiratory tract mucosa, facilitating viral infections and exacerbating symptoms.     

Adapting by calibration the sample size of a phase III trial on the basis of phase II data

The problem of estimating the sample size for a phase III trial on the basis of existing phase II data is considered, where data from phase II cannot be combined with those of the new phase III trial. Focus is on the test for comparing the means of two independent samples. A launching criterion is adopted in order to evaluate the relevance of phase II results: phase III is run if the effect size estimate is higher than a threshold of clinical importance. The variability in sample size estimation is taken into consideration. Then, the frequentist conservative strategies with a fixed amount of conservativeness and Bayesian strategies are compared. A new conservative strategy is introduced and is based on the calibration of the optimal amount of conservativeness – calibrated optimal strategy (COS). To evaluate the results we compute the Overall Power (OP) of the different strategies, as well as the mean and the MSE of sample size estimators. Bayesian strategies have poor characteristics since they show a very high mean and/or MSE of sample size estimators. COS clearly performs better than the other conservative strategies. Indeed, the OP of COS is, on average, the closest to the desired level; it is also the highest. COS sample size is also the closest to the ideal phase III sample size M_I, showing averages and MSEs lower than those of the other strategies. Costs and experimental times are therefore considerably reduced and standardized. However, if the ideal sample size M_I is to be estimated the phase II sample size n should be around the ideal phase III sample size, i.e. n?2M_I/3. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Gender Equality and Fertility: Which Equality Matters?

Does gender equality matter for fertility? Demographic findings on this issue are rather inconclusive. We argue that one reason for this is that the complexity of the concept of gender equality has received insufficient attention. Gender equality needs to be conceptualized in a manner that goes beyond perceiving it as mere “sameness of distribution”. It needs to include notions of gender equity and thus to allow for distinguishing between gender difference and gender inequality. We sketch three dimensions of gender equality related to employment, financial resources, and family work, which incorporate this understanding: (1) the ability to maintain a household; (2) agency and the capability to choose; and (3) gender equity in household and care work. We explore their impact on childbearing intentions of women and men using the European Generations and Gender Surveys. Our results confirm the need for a more nuanced notion of gender equality in studies on the relationship between gender equality on fertility. They show that there is no uniform effect of gender equality on childbearing intentions, but that the impact varies by gender and by parity.     

The diverse nature of living apart together relationships: an Italy–France comparison

This paper contributes to the ongoing debate on the nature of living apart together (LAT) relationships by focusing on two contrasting family settings: France and Italy. First, we corroborate the view that being “single” in residential terms does not mean being “without a partner” in relationship terms. To assume otherwise would be an erroneous characterisation of more than one quarter of the individuals in both countries. Second, our findings cannot be reconciled with any notion of a simple, uniform, and uni-directional view of LAT relationships. In Italy, LAT relationships are popular in the early phases of the life course, when young adults must often face difficult economic situations as well as social pressure to marry. In France, LAT relationships are more the result of a conscious choice, especially in later phases of the life course. We discuss these results in light of the second demographic transition narrative.     

Internet Poker Websites and Pathological Gambling Prevention Policy

Despite the widespread increase in online poker playing and the risk related to excessive poker playing, research on online poker websites is still lacking with regard to pathological gambling prevention strategies offered by the websites. The aim of the present study was to assess the pathological gambling-related prevention strategies of online poker websites. Two keywords (“poker” and “poker help”) were entered into two popular World Wide Web search engines. The first 20 links related to French and English online poker websites were assessed. Seventy-four websites were assessed with a standardized tool designed to rate sites on the basis of accountability, interactivity, prevention strategies, marketing, and messages related to poker strategies. Prevention strategies appeared to be lacking. Whereas a substantial proportion of the websites offered incitation to gambling such as betting “tips,” few sites offered strategies to prevent or address problem gambling. Furthermore, strategies related to poker, such as probability estimation, were mostly reported without acknowledging their limitations. Results of this study suggest that more adequate prevention strategies for risky gambling should be developed for online poker.