A Probabilistic Framework for Risk Analysis of Widespread Flood Events: A Proof‐of‐Concept Study

This article presents a flood risk analysis model that considers the spatially heterogeneous nature of flood events. The basic concept of this approach is to generate a large sample of flood events that can be regarded as temporal extrapolation of flood events. These are combined with cumulative flood impact indicators, such as building damages, to finally derive time series of damages for risk estimation. Therefore, a multivariate modeling procedure that is able to take into account the spatial characteristics of flooding, the regionalization method top‐kriging, and three different impact indicators are combined in a model chain. Eventually, the expected annual flood impact (e.g., expected annual damages) and the flood impact associated with a low probability of occurrence are determined for a study area. The risk model has the potential to augment the understanding of flood risk in a region and thereby contribute to enhanced risk management of, for example, risk analysts and policymakers or insurance companies. The modeling framework was successfully applied in a proof‐of‐concept exercise in Vorarlberg (Austria). The results of the case study show that risk analysis has to be based on spatially heterogeneous flood events in order to estimate flood risk adequately.     

伸展构造背景下倾角资料的构造解释

系统总结了在伸展构造背景下，导致反映构造特征的地层倾角模式复杂化的多种因素。沉积相的不同、岩性变化、井眼状况和测井作业时间等多种因素都可能使地层倾角资料复杂化。进一步指出在拉张盆地中，进行倾角资料的构造解释，必须了解其构造样式的多样性和复杂性，解释存在的多解性。重点解剖了铲式断层在横剖面情况下，对于不同构造位置下的倾角模式。详细分析了一个倾角模式对应多种构造样式的倾角构造解释实例。倾角资料的构造解释应是综合解释，既要综合井筒的相关地质资料，又要综合测井与地质知识，还必须考虑综合地震资料。     

论创新思维的基础

创新是人类的本质特征 ,在人类创新的实践中 ,创新思维具有基础性和先导性的作用 ,是理论创新、科技创新、体制创新的基础和前提。创新思维是唯物辩证法的基本原理与规律在思维过程中的具体运用和体现 ,是多种思维要素相互协调作用的结果 ,它有着坚实的物质基础、心理基础和方法论基础     

化学教学的“设疑—研讨”模式

提出了“设疑—研讨”教学模式 ,并运用于中学化学教学中 ,通过设疑、讨论、总结和评价四步教学法 ,培养了学生思维能力和创新能力     

明代金湜、张珹出使朝鲜与《甲申皇华集》述论

天顺八年，金湜、张城作为正、副使赴朝鲜颁明宪宗登极诏。在朝鲜期间，他们充分发挥自己的才艺，与朝鲜文臣赓酬唱和，留下了许多诗文。朝鲜为了表示事大之诚，更为了显示本国的文雅之关，将这些诗文辑录刻印，即《甲中皇华集》。学界关于这一问题，尚未展开探讨，文章探讨了《甲中皇华集》的成因，内容方面的特色及双方唱和的竞争意识、使臣形象的差异问题，以求对研究中朝文学关系有所裨益。     

印蒂与浮士德:一对超越时空的精神孪生儿——论《无名书》与《浮士德》的精神联系

作为一名潜隐达半个世纪的中国现代作家,无名氏与歌德之间存在着难以掩盖的距离.然而,对比《无名书》中的印蒂与《浮士德》中的同名主人公,我们却能清晰地触摸到二者在对人生终极意义的追寻与探索上的深层的精神联系.     

TERRITORIAL RESTRICTIONS IN FRANCHISE CONTRACTS

Efficient contracts set incentives through the assignment of rights and profit shares., Although efficient contracts have been used to explain the nature of the firm, the use of contractual rights in specific business contracts is relatively unexplored. We analyze contractual rights in franchise systems, in particular the right to add franchisees. An exclusive territory assigned to an initial franchisee is not an immutable guarantee, but rather a starting point for subsequent renegotiation in the franchise relationship. Exclusivity is therefore profitable when franchisee efforts are critical to the venture. A sample of franchise contracts reveals evidence consistent with the model's prediction.     

论现代企业经营思想

企业行为受其经营思想的支配,企业的经营思想取决于企业所处的客观环境。在市场经济与现代企业制度的约束下,企业普遍应树立的经营思想有:守法观念、效益观念、用户观念、创新观念、竞争观念和战略观念。各种观念应当互为配合,形成一个有机的整体。     

要着力加快统计方法制度改革

改革开放以来,我国的统计工作得到了长足发展,统计事业蒸蒸日上。尽管如此,相对于国际国内形势的发展变化,我国的统计方法制度改革仍显滞后,致使统计工作在很多方面不适应形势发展要求,统计事业的进一步发展面临着更为严峻的挑战,统计方法制度改革工作任重道远。一、统计工作面     

Dose-Response and Risk Assessment of Airborne Hexavalent Chromium and Lung Cancer Mortality

This study evaluates the dose-response relationship for inhalation exposure to hexavalent chromium [Cr(VI)] and lung cancer mortality for workers of a chromate production facility, and provides estimates of the carcinogenic potency. The data were analyzed using relative risk and additive risk dose-response models implemented with both Poisson and Cox regression. Potential confounding by birth cohort and smoking prevalence were also assessed. Lifetime cumulative exposure and highest monthly exposure were the dose metrics evaluated. The estimated lifetime additional risk of lung cancer mortality associated with 45 years of occupational exposure to 1 microg/m3 Cr(VI) (occupational exposure unit risk) was 0.00205 (90%CI: 0.00134, 0.00291) for the relative risk model and 0.00216 (90%CI: 0.00143, 0.00302) for the additive risk model assuming a linear dose response for cumulative exposure with a five-year lag. Extrapolating these findings to a continuous (e.g., environmental) exposure scenario yielded an environmental unit risk of 0.00978 (90%CI: 0.00640, 0.0138) for the relative risk model [e.g., a cancer slope factor of 34 (mg/kg-day)-1] and 0.0125 (90%CI: 0.00833, 0.0175) for the additive risk model. The relative risk model is preferred because it is more consistent with the expected trend for lung cancer risk with age. Based on statistical tests for exposure-related trend, there was no statistically significant increased lung cancer risk below lifetime cumulative occupational exposures of 1.0 mg-yr/m3, and no excess risk for workers whose highest average monthly exposure did not exceed the current Permissible Exposure Limit (52 microg/m3). It is acknowledged that this study had limited power to detect increases at these low exposure levels. These cancer potency estimates are comparable to those developed by U.S. regulatory agencies and should be useful for assessing the potential cancer hazard associated with inhaled Cr(VI).