Invariant U-statistics

For a class of distributions which are invariant under a group of transformations, we propose an estimator ot an estimable parameter. The estimator, which we call the invariant U-statistic, is the uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator of the corresponding estimable parameter for the class of all continuous distributions which are invariant under the group of transformations.     

Asymptotic expansions in non-linear renewal theory

We obtain first order asymptotic expansions for the distribution of the excess of a standard normal random walk over a curved boundary and the error probabilities of some repeated significance tests. The key step in the analysis is an asymptotic expansion for the conditional probability that the random walk has not crossed the boundary before the N step, given that it is near the boundary after the n^th step.     

Nonparametric bayes estimates of estimable parameters with a dirichlet invarant process and inveriant u-statistics

Tne Bayes estimates of estimable parameters of arbitrary degree in the one sample case are obtained against a Dirichlet invariant. process prior and the squared error loss. We also oive the limits of Bayes estimates, which are related to the in- a- variant U-statistics. For a fixed distribution, the limits of Bayes estimates have the asymptotic normal distribution under certain conditjons.     

A model for the coordination of recovery policies in the OECD region

The paper presents a world econometric model of the LINK type, which is then applied to the study of the recovery prospects of the OECD economies. Specifically, several policy packages coordinated at the international level are assessed for the period 1978–1980.The model includes country specific macroeconomic structures for eight developed economies, and different type structures for five additional developing countries. The obvious policy and behavioral differences that exist between these two groups of countries are highlighted through the specification, in one case, of demand-oriented Keynessian models able to capture short-term cyclical phenomena. The supply orientation with several resource gaps (savings, foreign exchange, etc.) prevails for the developing economies. The two sections after the introduction review broadly the main modeling features of the project, including the international comparison of structural parameters. In the following sections several policy experiments are attempted. The underlying behavioral assumptions stress the community of interest that prevails among OECD economies. These experiments consider the case of stimulative policies adopted in (1) the United States alone, (2) three engine countries (United States, Federal Republic of Germany, and Japan), and (3) several developed countries that are part of the OECD system. Other experiments assume additional policy packages to correct present current account imbalances. The general conclusion of the study is that the prospects for economic recovery in the OECD area depend to a crucial extent on the ability of the member countries to agree on policies able to make the major economic indicators of each economy converge toward levels that are domestically manageable and mutually supporting.     

Bayes estimates of estimable parameters with a direchlet invariant process

The Bayes estimates of estimable parameters of degree 2 are obtained against a Dirichlet invariant process prior and the squared error loss. Some examples are given with the limits of the Bayes estimates.     

A generalization of the donnelly-tavare-griffiths formula

We give a generalization of the one form of the Donnelly-Tavaré-Griffiths(DTG) formula. It contains not only this DTG formula but also the conditional distribution of the formula given the some first components. We can construct it using a simple urn model. For the generalization of the DTG formula, its probability distributions including marginal and conditional distributions, the related statistics and their asymptotic properties are discussed.     

Quantitative Risk Assessment of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Finfish: A Model of Raw Horse Mackerel Consumption in Japan

The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of implemented control measures to reduce illness induced by Vibrio parahaemolyticus (V. parahaemolyticus) in horse mackerel (Trachurus japonicus), seafood that is commonly consumed raw in Japan. On the basis of currently available experimental and survey data, we constructed a quantitative risk model of V. parahaemolyticus in horse mackerel from harvest to consumption. In particular, the following factors were evaluated: bacterial growth at all stages, effects of washing the fish body and storage water, and bacterial transfer from the fish surface, gills, and intestine to fillets during preparation. New parameters of the beta‐Poisson dose‐response model were determined from all human feeding trials, some of which have been used for risk assessment by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (USFDA). The probability of illness caused by V. parahaemolyticus was estimated using both the USFDA dose‐response parameters and our parameters for each selected pathway of scenario alternatives: washing whole fish at landing, storage in contaminated water, high temperature during transportation, and washing fish during preparation. The last scenario (washing fish during preparation) was the most effective for reducing the risk of illness by about a factor of 10 compared to no washing at this stage. Risk of illness increased by 50% by exposure to increased temperature during transportation, according to our assumptions of duration and temperature. The other two scenarios did not significantly affect risk. The choice of dose‐response parameters was not critical for evaluation of control measures.     

Nonpaternalistic altruism and functional interdependence of social preferences

Utility functions embodying nonpaternalistic altruism can be regarded as being generated through social interactions among altruistic individuals. As such, they show an important interdependence. Assuming linear altruism, the paper obtains the following results. First, nonpaternalistic altruism has a tendency to unify utility functions. Second, by linearly extrapolating a given structure of altruistic interactions, one can ascertain the extent to which the unification can proceed and its direction. Third, the unification implies narrowing down of the range of conflicting choices but the direction of unification lacks ethical principles. Fourth, the conditions utilitarianism imposes on the structure of altruistic interactions are characterized. The author would like to thank Marc Fleurbaey and three anonymous referees for insightful comments.