乡—城移民聚居空间实践及其文化调适

在我国城市化进程中,大量外来农村移民进入城市的城中村、城乡结合部等多种非正规空间聚居,形成移民主体性的生活实践场域。在与城市文化互动过程中,外来农村移民如何在聚居生活中进行调适,已是检视其城市融入成败的关键场域。通过分析空间疏离、退守到空间重构的三种空间实践过程,表明主体性居住空间实践具有重要的文化调适功能,相关政策应重视他们聚居的多样性与渐进性,尊重其生活空间权益,才能破解当前的融入困境。     

Migration Planning Among Female Prospective Labour Migrants from Nepal: A Comparison of First‐Time and Repeat‐Migrants

As international female labour migration has increased, so too have efforts to prevent the exploitation of labour migrants. However, evidence to underpin prevention efforts remains limited, with little known about labour migrants’ migration planning processes. Using data from a survey of female prospective labour migrants from Nepal, this article compares socio‐demographics and migration‐planning processes between first‐time and repeat‐migrants. We identified several factors which might increase repeat‐migrants’ vulnerability to exploitation during the migration process, or obstruct their engagement in pre‐migration interventions: more rapid migration planning than first‐time migrants; lower involvement in community groups; and a perception that they already have the knowledge they need. Only one‐third of repeat‐migrants planned to go to the same destination and 42 per cent to work in the same sector as previously. With repeat‐migration a common livelihoods strategy, it is crucial that interventions are guided by evidence on the needs of both first‐time‐ and repeat‐migrants.     

Computational Forecasting of Wavelet-converted Monthly Sunspot Numbers

Monthly average sunspot numbers follow irregular cycles with complex nonlinear dynamics. Statistical linear models constructed to forecast them are therefore inappropriate, while nonlinear models produce solutions sensitive to initial conditions. Two computational techniques - neural networks and genetic programming - that have their advantages are applied instead to the monthly numbers and their wavelet-transformed and wavelet-denoised series. The objective is to determine if modeling wavelet-conversions produces better forecasts than those from modeling series' observed values. Because sunspot numbers are indicators of geomagnetic activity their forecast is important. Geomagnetic storms endanger satellites and disrupt communications and power systems on Earth.     

Monte Carlo Approximations of the Quantiles of a Sample Statistic

We consider in this article the problem of numerically approximating the quantiles of a sample statistic for a given population, a problem of interest in many applications, such as bootstrap confidence intervals. The proposed Monte Carlo method can be routinely applied to handle complex problems that lack analytical results. Furthermore, the method yields estimates of the quantiles of a sample statistic of any sample size though Monte Carlo simulations for only two optimally selected sample sizes are needed. An analysis of the Monte Carlo design is performed to obtain the optimal choices of these two sample sizes and the number of simulated samples required for each sample size. Theoretical results are presented for the bias and variance of the numerical method proposed. The results developed are illustrated via simulation studies for the classical problem of estimating a bivariate linear structural relationship. It is seen that the size of the simulated samples used in the Monte Carlo method does not have to be very large and the method provides a better approximation to quantiles than those based on an asymptotic normal theory for skewed sampling distributions.     

Jordan's Public Policy Response to COVID-19 Pandemic: Insight and Policy Analysis

The aim of this study was to gain an understanding of how the Jordanian government has responded and continues to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic. It utilizes the interpretive policy analysis approach through document analysis. The analysis showed that Jordan created social protection policies to assist people who lost their jobs or whose work was suspended due to the coronavirus. The economic policies build solidarity and facilitate the private sector’s recovery. The health care measures firmly applied included lockdown, wearing masks, and restrictions on gatherings and public events. Jordan uses hard power and imposes sanctions on any violation that threatens the lives of others.

     

句法角色与话题性对实体突显性的影响

句法角色与话题性都会影响语篇实体的突显性程度。采用汉语续写实验,将实验句置于语境之中,在句法角色恒定条件下操控话题性和指称形式等变量,可探察实体作为语篇话题和非话题在续写时的表征趋势,即重述形式。实验发现,在续写初期,话题性不能影响实体的重述,它与句法角色之间无交互作用|在续写后期,话题性确实对实体重述起到一定作用。此外,目标句给定指称形式虽然不影响实体重述,但在一定条件下会影响被试对重述形式的选择。     

基于DEA模型的中国电信业技术效率实证研究

为了对中国电信业最新的效率水平有一个深入的了解,运用数据包络分析（DEA）静态分析、分布分析及聚类分析等方法,从整体和区域两个维度,以2005—2008年为样本区间,针对DEA有效性、技术有效性、规模有效性三个方面对全国31个省市的电信业技术效率进行了实证研究。研究表明,我国电信业整体技术效率较低,纯技术效率低下是造成整体技术效率低下的主要原因;区域间电信业发展水平参差不齐,但追赶效应比较明显;有效整合资源,因地制宜,注重规模经济效应可以有效促进我国电信业的发展。     

Heteroscedastic Regression Models and Applications to Off-line Quality Control

We discuss in the present paper the analysis of heteroscedastic regression models and their applications to off-line quality control problems. It is well known that the method of pseudo-likelihood is usually preferred to full maximum likelihood since estimators of the parameters in the regression function obtained are more robust to misspecification of the variance function. Despite its popularity, however, existing theoretical results are difficult to apply and are of limited use in many applications. Using more recent results in estimating equations, we obtain an efficient algorithm for computing the pseudo-likelihood estimator with desirable convergence properties and also derive simple, explicit and easy to apply asymptotic results. These results are used to look in detail at variance minimization in off-line quality control, yielding techniques of inferences for the optimized design parameter. In application of some existing approaches to off-line quality control, such as the dual response methodology, rigorous statistical inference techniques are scarce and difficult to obtain. An example of off-line quality control is presented to discuss the practical aspects involved in the application of the results obtained and to address issues such as data transformation, model building and the optimization of design parameters. The analysis shows very encouraging results, and is seen to be able to unveil some important information not found in previous analyses.     

Estimation in the presence of incidental parameters

This paper considers the estimation of “structural” parameters when the number of unknown parameters increases with the sample size. Neyman and Scott (1948) had demonstrated that maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) of structural parameters may be inconsistent in this case. Patefield (1977) further observed that the asymptotic covariance matrix of the MLE is not equal to the inverse of the information matrix. In this paper we establish asymptotic properties of estimators (which include in particular the MLE) obtained via the usual likelihood approach when the incidental parameters are first replaced by their estimates (which are allowed to depend on the structural parameters). Conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality together with a proper formula for the asymptotic covariance matrix are given. The results are illustrated and applied to the problem of estimating linear functional relationships, and mild conditions on the incidental parameters for the MLE (or an adjusted MLE) to be consistent and asymptotically normal are obtained. These conditions are weaker than those imposed by previous authors.     

从普利兹克建筑奖看世界建筑发展趋向

源于对建筑本体的探求 ,建筑史上出现了风格、流派之争 ,普利兹克建筑奖被誉为“建筑界的诺贝尔奖”,从其历届获奖者的建筑主张不难发现 ,现代建筑本体的价值取向始终在感性和理性之间徘徊 ,反现代主义的流派所作的某些尝试也扩大了建筑哲学范畴 ,而探求建筑本体的过程极富有意义 ,通过它可把握建筑学的未来