全文获取类型
收费全文 | 1098篇 |
免费 | 35篇 |
专业分类
管理学 | 139篇 |
民族学 | 7篇 |
人才学 | 3篇 |
人口学 | 79篇 |
丛书文集 | 7篇 |
理论方法论 | 112篇 |
综合类 | 8篇 |
社会学 | 652篇 |
统计学 | 126篇 |
出版年
2023年 | 4篇 |
2022年 | 8篇 |
2021年 | 10篇 |
2020年 | 19篇 |
2019年 | 25篇 |
2018年 | 31篇 |
2017年 | 32篇 |
2016年 | 29篇 |
2015年 | 28篇 |
2014年 | 34篇 |
2013年 | 178篇 |
2012年 | 49篇 |
2011年 | 43篇 |
2010年 | 38篇 |
2009年 | 31篇 |
2008年 | 42篇 |
2007年 | 48篇 |
2006年 | 37篇 |
2005年 | 28篇 |
2004年 | 36篇 |
2003年 | 19篇 |
2002年 | 33篇 |
2001年 | 22篇 |
2000年 | 22篇 |
1999年 | 26篇 |
1998年 | 26篇 |
1997年 | 9篇 |
1996年 | 18篇 |
1995年 | 15篇 |
1994年 | 11篇 |
1993年 | 19篇 |
1992年 | 23篇 |
1991年 | 18篇 |
1990年 | 11篇 |
1989年 | 10篇 |
1988年 | 9篇 |
1987年 | 10篇 |
1986年 | 6篇 |
1985年 | 5篇 |
1984年 | 7篇 |
1983年 | 9篇 |
1982年 | 9篇 |
1981年 | 13篇 |
1980年 | 5篇 |
1979年 | 4篇 |
1978年 | 4篇 |
1977年 | 3篇 |
1976年 | 3篇 |
1975年 | 3篇 |
1970年 | 2篇 |
排序方式: 共有1133条查询结果,搜索用时 9 毫秒
1.
2.
Stephanie M. Pickle Timothy J. Robinson Jeffrey B. Birch Christine M. Anderson-Cook 《Journal of statistical planning and inference》2008
Parameter design or robust parameter design (RPD) is an engineering methodology intended as a cost-effective approach for improving the quality of products and processes. The goal of parameter design is to choose the levels of the control variables that optimize a defined quality characteristic. An essential component of RPD involves the assumption of well estimated models for the process mean and variance. Traditionally, the modeling of the mean and variance has been done parametrically. It is often the case, particularly when modeling the variance, that nonparametric techniques are more appropriate due to the nature of the curvature in the underlying function. Most response surface experiments involve sparse data. In sparse data situations with unusual curvature in the underlying function, nonparametric techniques often result in estimates with problematic variation whereas their parametric counterparts may result in estimates with problematic bias. We propose the use of semi-parametric modeling within the robust design setting, combining parametric and nonparametric functions to improve the quality of both mean and variance model estimation. The proposed method will be illustrated with an example and simulations. 相似文献
3.
Jeffrey C. Shuman 《Long Range Planning》1985,18(6):48-53
The research reported in this article is based on a study of the strategic planning practices of the 500 fastest growing privately held smaller companies in the United States ranked according to percentage of sales increases from 1978 to 1982.p1 Based on the information provided, a clear picture emerges regarding the actual role of strategic planning in rapid growth companies. 相似文献
4.
Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation and inference in dynamic models with time-varying covariances 总被引:48,自引:0,他引:48
We study the properties of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) and related test statistics in dynamic models that jointly parameterize conditional means and conditional covariances, when a normal log-likelihood os maximized but the assumption of normality is violated. Because the score of the normal log-likelihood has the martingale difference property when the forst two conditional moments are correctly specified, the QMLE is generally Consistent and has a limiting normal destribution. We provide easily computable formulas for asymptotic standard errors that are valid under nonnormality. Further, we show how robust LM tests for the adequacy of the jointly parameterized mean and variance can be computed from simple auxiliary regressions. An appealing feature of these robyst inference procedures is that only first derivatives of the conditional mean and variance functions are needed. A monte Carlo study indicates that the asymptotic results carry over to finite samples. Estimation of several AR and AR-GARCH time series models reveals that in most sotuations the robust test statistics compare favorably to the two standard (nonrobust) formulations of the Wald and IM tests. Also, for the GARCH models and the sample sizes analyzed here, the bias in the QMLE appears to be relatively small. An empirical application to stock return volatility illustrates the potential imprtance of computing robust statistics in practice. 相似文献
5.
Christian P. Robert Xiao-Li Meng Jesper Møller Jeffrey S Rosenthal C Jennison M. A Hurn F Al-Awadhi Peter McCullagh Christophe Andrieu Arnaud Doucet Petros Dellaportas Ioulia Papageorgiou Ricardo S Ehlers Elena A Erosheva Stephen E Fienberg Jonathan J Forster Roger C Gill Nial Friel Peter Green David Hastie R King Hans R Künsch N. A. Lazar C Osinski 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B, Statistical methodology》2003,65(1):39-55
6.
We show that Bayesian ex post aggregation is unstable with respect to refinements. Suppose a group of Bayesians use ex post
aggregation. Since it is a joint problem, each agent's problem is captured by the same model, but probabilities and utilities
may vary. If they analyze the same situation in more detail, their refined analysis should preserve their preferences among
acts. However, ex post aggregation could bring about a preference reversal on the group level. Ex post aggregation thus depends
on how much information is used and may keep oscillating (“flipping”) as one keeps adding more information.
Received: 16 April 2002/Accepted: 27 May 2002 相似文献
7.
Buying a Dream: Alternative Models of Demand for Lotto 总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5
Existing lotto demand models utilize effective price, computed as the face value of a ticket minus the expected value of prize money per ticket, as their primary explanatory variable. By contrast, this article proposes a key role for consumption benefit or "fun" in the demand for gambling in general and lotto demand in particular. It develops an alternative model of lotto demand that focuses on the maximum possible prize. When this is tested against the traditional model using data from the U.K. National Lottery, we find that jackpot considerations exert an influence over and above that of variations in effective price. 相似文献
8.
9.
The multiple self-referent model (Brown-Collins & Sussewell, 1986) provides a comprehensive framework for understanding the personal, social, and historical aspects of self-concept formation in African American women and has important implications for understanding the complexity of career development issues for Black women. Excerpts from recorded interviews and autobiographical writings of four well-known African American women provide examples of the basic components of this model. Suggested interventions for career counseling with Black female clients are discussed. 相似文献
10.
Terrorist actions are aimed at maximizing harm (health, psychological, economical, and political) through the combined physical impacts of the act and fear. Immediate and effective response to a terrorist act is critical to limit human and environmental harm, effectively restore facility function, and maintain public confidence. Though there have been terrorist attacks in public facilities that we have learned from, overall our experiences in restoration of public facilities following a terrorist attack are limited. Restoration of public facilities following a release of a hazardous material is inherently far more complex than in industrial settings and has many unique technical, economic, social, and political challenges. For example, there may be a great need to quickly restore the facility to full operation and allow public access even though it was not designed for easy or rapid restoration, and critical information is needed for quantitative risk assessment and effective restoration must be anticipated to be incomplete and uncertain. Whereas present planning documents have substantial linearity in their organization, the “adaptive management” paradigm provides a constructive parallel paradigm for restoration of public facilities that anticipates and plans for uncertainty, inefficiencies, and stakeholder participation. Adaptive management grew out of the need to manage and restore natural resources in highly complex and changing environments with limited knowledge about causal relationships and responses to restoration actions. Similarities between natural resource management and restoration of a public facility after a terrorist attack suggest that integration of adaptive management principles explicitly into restoration processes will result in substantially enhanced and flexible responses necessary to meet the uncertainties of potential terrorist attacks. 相似文献