Risk Analysis: Celebrating the Accomplishments and Embracing Ongoing Challenges

As part of the celebration of the 40th anniversary of the Society for Risk Analysis and Risk Analysis: An International Journal, this essay reviews the 10 most important accomplishments of risk analysis from 1980 to 2010, outlines major accomplishments in three major categories from 2011 to 2019, discusses how editors circulate authors’ accomplishments, and proposes 10 major risk-related challenges for 2020–2030. Authors conclude that the next decade will severely test the field of risk analysis.     

Sibling Conflict and Ineffective Parenting as Predictors of Adolescent Boys' Antisocial Behavior and Peer Difficulties: Additive and Interactional Effects

Extensive sibling conflict is predictive of multiple poor adjustment outcomes during adolescence and early adulthood, but the frequency and developmental impact of such conflict may be conditional on ineffective parenting. Thus, sibling conflict may add to or amplify the negative effects of ineffective parenting on adolescent boys' adjustment. Hypotheses in this study were that: (a) multiple informant measures of problematic parent–child relationships and of sibling conflict would form distinct constructs rather than a single negative family process construct, and (b) ineffective parenting, sibling conflict, and their interaction measured at ages 10 to 12 would predict boys' concurrent status and developmental trajectories for antisocial behavior and peer adjustment across a 4‐year span from ages 12 to 16. Confirmatory factor and latent growth modeling analyses were consistent with these hypotheses, demonstrating the important developmental impact of sibling conflict.     

Sampling Returns for Realized Variance Calculations: Tick Time or Transaction Time?

This article introduces a new model for transaction prices in the presence of market microstructure noise in order to study the properties of the price process on two different time scales, namely, transaction time where prices are sampled with every transaction and tick time where prices are sampled with every price change. Both sampling schemes have been used in the literature on realized variance, but a formal investigation into their properties has been lacking. Our empirical and theoretical results indicate that the return dynamics in transaction time are very different from those in tick time and the choice of sampling scheme can therefore have an important impact on the properties of realized variance. For RV we find that tick time sampling is superior to transaction time sampling in terms of mean-squared-error, especially when the level of noise, number of ticks, or the arrival frequency of efficient price moves is low. Importantly, we show that while the microstructure noise may appear close to IID in transaction time, in tick time it is highly dependent. As a result, bias correction procedures that rely on the noise being independent, can fail in tick time and are better implemented in transaction time.     

A circular-cone test for testing homogeneity against a simple tree order

Several methods exist for the problem of testing the equality of several treatments against the one-sided alternative that the treatments are better than the control. These methods include Dunnett's test, Bartholomew's likelihood-ratio test, the Abelson-Tukey-Schaafsma-Smid optimal-contrast test, and the multiple-contrast test of Mukerjee, Robertson, and Wright. A new test is proposed based on an approximation of the likelihood-ratio test of Bartholomew. This test involves using a circular cone in place of the alternative-hypothesis cone. The circular-cone test has excellent power characteristics similar to those of Bartholomew's test. Moreover, it has the advantages of being simpler to compute and may be used with unequal sample sizes.     

Working children: the health and safety issue

Recent evidence has emerged that in Britain, like the US, many children below the official minimum school leaving age, are working. In many cases, the work is illegal. Research in the US suggests that many working children risk accidents and other hazards to health. Evidence from Britain on the health and safety aspects of child labour is of a more fragmentary nature, but enough exists to suggest a need for greater vigilance.     

Beyond mere information transfer: The importance of a relational approach to market-related internal communication

Despite the significance of relationship management in any information provision or exchange, public relations scholarship has typically focused on examining the underlying internal communication processes from a transactional perspective. These processes are frequently associated with organizational information dissemination, overlooking other critical contents to make strategic decisions. This study draws market information processing into the debate about internal communication, providing a greater understanding of how a relational approach can improve market intelligence dissemination. Results show that an effective management of market knowledge requires the use of such an approach, which in turn, cultivates the shared interpretation of market information and innovation performance. The findings stimulate fresh discussion about the nature and development of internal communication knowledge and practice.     

Corporate collective action and the market cycle of the cloth industry in Nieuwkerke,Flanders, 1300–1600

This article addresses the connections between corporate collective action and economic development in the pre-industrial Low Countries. It focuses on a micro-historic case study: the textile industry of the village of Nieuwkerke in the county of Flanders. This rural cloth centre witnessed an exceptional industrial expansion between the fourteenth and sixteenth centuries. Following the recent proposition by Bas van Bavel that market economies follow a fixed pattern of development, the chronology of the evolution of Nieuwkerke’s cloth industry can be discussed in terms of three phases. This article argues that the first phase of development (1358–c.1500) was characterized by limited success because of pressure from the city of Ypres. The second phase (c.1500–c.1550) was marked by an industrial boom, predicated upon successful corporate collective action intertwined with the perception of social equality among the village’s cloth entrepreneurs. The third and final phase (from c.1550) was one of stagnation and decline, caused by the breaking down of the collective and concomitant social polarization. The case study thereby closely conforms to van Bavel’s theory about market cycles. Yet, the correlation between economic decline and social polarization should in this case be understood in terms of changing perceptions of inequality, rather than increasingly unequal opportunities.     

Discussion of “Nonparametric Bayesian Inference in Applications”: Bayesian nonparametric methods in econometrics

The use of Bayesian nonparametrics models has increased rapidly over the last few decades driven by increasing computational power and the development of efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms. We review some applications of these models in economic applications including: volatility modelling (using both stochastic volatility models and GARCH-type models) with Dirichlet process mixture models, uses in portfolio allocation problems, long memory models with flexible forms of time-dependence, flexible extension of the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model for interest rate yields and multivariate time series models used in macroeconometrics.     

Public intellectuals,political satire and the birth of activist public relations: The case of Attic Comedy

The purpose of this article is to explore the origins of dissent public relations and to establish its emergence in the context of the ancient Greek comedy represented by Aristophanes. Indeed, Attic Comedy (also known as Old Comedy) was the first great example of today’s mass communication, in which political satire was used to dissent and protest against political and social circumstances in fifth-century BC Athens. This situation was conditioned by the Peloponnesian War and its political, economic and social consequences. From this perspective, this article also constitutes an investigation into the intellectual history of public relations, of which Aristophanes can be considered to be one of the first practitioners.