The Life Course,Cohort Dynamics,and International Differences in Aging Trajectories

In recent years, population health research has focused on understanding the determinants of later-life health. Two strands of that work have focused on (1) international comparisons of later-life health and (2) assessing the early-life origins of disease and disability and the importance of life course processes. However, the less frequently examined intersection of these approaches remains an important frontier. The present study contributes to the integration of these approaches. We use the Health and Retirement Study family of data sets and a cohort dynamic approach to compare functional health trajectories across 12 high-income countries and to examine the role of life course processes and cohort dynamics in contributing to variation in those trajectories. We find substantial international variation in functional health trajectories and an important role of cohort dynamics in generating that variation, with younger cohorts often less healthy at comparable ages than the older cohorts they are replacing. We further find evidence of heterogeneous effects of life course processes on health trajectories. The results have important implications for future trends in morbidity and mortality as well as public policy.     

Public Response to the Tokai Nuclear Accident

This article discusses the influence of the September 30, 1999 nuclear accident in Tokai village (Japan) on the public's attitudes toward nuclear power in Japan. The data used in this report were taken from the results of two surveys conducted mainly to measure the attitudes of the Japanese public with regard to the use of nuclear power in Japan. The first survey was done before the accident in District 23 in Tokyo and also in Osaka and Nagoya. The second survey, which took place after the accident in District 23 in Tokyo and in Osaka and Nagoya, also included residents in a number of other cities of various sizes throughout Japan. The results of the two surveys showed that (1) acceptability of and trust in nuclear power operation had decreased, (2) perceived accident likelihood and public interest had significantly increased, and (3) there had been neither significant nor even a small change in the public's self-rated knowledge about nuclear power or their distrust of the government. The results also showed that the ratio of nuclear power generation opponents to total respondents had considerably increased (7% to 23%) whereas nuclear power generation supporters had moderately decreased (1% to 12%).     

Gerrymandering in a hierarchical legislature

Theory and Decision - We build a multiple hierarchical model of a representative democracy in which citizens elect ward representatives, ward representatives elect county representatives, county...     

The Russian Economy and the Oil Price: A Co-integrated VAR Approach

Using a co-integrated VAR model, this paper analyzes the dynamic effects of oil price and interest rate shocks on the Russian economy for the period 1995:Q1-2008:Q2. The co-integration analysis leads to the finding that a 1% increase in oil prices contributes to real GDP growth by 0.8%, suggesting an increase four times that reported by Rautava (2002), in the long run. Furthermore, the impulse response analysis suggests that the impacts of the shock on inflation and real GDP are positive over the next eight quarters (short run), whereas the tightening of monetary policy through interest rate channel is immediately associated with a decline in inflation as predicted by theory, but with an increase in real GDP over the preceding quarters.      

Regional disparities in bonding and bridging social capital: An empirical study of rural and urban Japan

This article investigates regional social capital development by focusing on disparities in bonding and bridging social capital among rural and urban areas of Japan. Rural–urban differences in social capital in Western contexts have been discussed by many studies. Their main finding is that bonding social capital is richer in rural areas and bridging social capital is richer in urban areas. However, the empirical evidence presented in this article suggests that in Japan both bridging and bonding social capital are richer in rural than urban areas, diverging from traditional thinking about these two types of social capital. This finding suggests that urbanization and depopulation in rural areas of Japan have led to changes in people's behavior and their demand for social networks, promoting the development of bridging social capital in rural areas.     

The Reform of Mutual Aid Associations in Japan: Civil Service Employee Pension Reform in 2012

Civil service employee pension reform began by removing non‐clerical work from the main body of the Mutual Aid Association (MAA) pension system. Further changes were based on administrative reform and pension jealousy. In particular, the Nakasone cabinet's administrative reform privatized the non‐clerical sector. Before the 1979 reform, the pensionable age was 55 for the MAA and 60 for the Employee Pension Insurance (EPI) scheme. The MAA pension benefit formula adopted the final salary system, which was larger than the average lifetime salary calculation used for EPI benefits. The final salary system was abolished during the 1986 reform. Public employee criticism over “Amakudari” led to further civil service employee remuneration reform in 2005. In 2007, the Social Insurance Agency pension record scandal led to a change of government by 2009. The biggest reform of the MAA pension system was the abolishment of the occupational portion of the pension, a compromise between the government and unions. We project that this compromise will cost 22 trillion yen over 90 years old. After 2055, the newly established MAA pension scheme will be abolished; thus the public pension may finally be sustainable.     

The Impact of Oil Price Hike on the Belarusian Economy

This paper attempts to empirically examine the impact of oil price hike on the macro-economic activities in the Republic of Belarus. In order to capture both short-run and long-run dynamic effects, we use a co-integrated vector auto-regression (VAR) model with the data from the first quarter of 1996 to the second quarter of 2008. The analysis leads to the finding that a 1% increase in oil prices contributes to real GDP growth by 0.3% in the long run, whereas it has almost no effect in the short run (12 quarters). Additionally, it was found that exports and inflation rate are, respectively, positively and negatively related to the oil shock in the preceding period. In particular, the latter is significant.