Distribution of exotic monk parakeets across an urban landscape

Monk parakeets (Myiopsitta monachus) are the most abundant and widely distributed of the naturalized parrots in the United States. Their presence is simultaneously encouraged by some humans (through use of bird feeders) and discouraged by others (through removal of their nests) and, as a result, they show an interesting spatial distribution across urban areas. We used an online public survey and field surveys to examine the influence of human activities and land use on the distribution of this exotic species around Chicago, IL (USA). These efforts resulted in detection of 249 nesting structures and approximately 778 birds across the region. A CART analysis successfully separated nesting sites from random sites and correctly classified 90?% of the nesting sites. The most important factor in the model was land use, with nests typically found in areas with less than 84?% residential zoning. We found nests on a wide variety of substrates including trees, cell phone towers, and stadium lights. Spatial point pattern analysis indicated that nests in trees and nests in built substrates were significantly dissociated with each other at all scales. Nests on built substrates were closer to railroads and highways or in areas with lower human population density, suggesting either a difference in substrate availability or human tolerance between these settings. While humans may have a positive effect on distribution of monk parakeets at large spatial scales, at the scale of this study we see a potentially negative effect of too many humans on the distribution of monk parakeet nests.     

Social work and hospitality: An oral history of Edith Stolzenberg

ABSTRACT

Edith Richman Stolzenberg (1913–2004) was the first woman to be hired as a social worker in Hartford Public High School in Hartford, Connecticut. In a career that spanned 60 years and much of 20th-century social welfare history, she was motivated by the social justice tradition of her Jewish upbringing and the religious value of hospitality to advocate for children and families. As we enter a harsh new era for social services, this oral history explores the radical possibilities for integrating social work goals and religious values.     

Risk Factors for Infant Mortality in Nineteenth-Century Sweden

This study examines risk factors for infant mortality using individual-level data from a sample of parishes in northern Sweden in the nineteenth century. Sweden is of particular interest because of its unusually regular pattern of infant mortality decline during the century. We follow a sample of women longitudinally through their successive pregnancies and observe the mortality experience of each child. Exploratory and multivariate logistic regression analyses reveal an important intra-familial dimension to infant mortality that appears from the early stages of a woman's reproductive career. In addition, multivariate analyses by birth-order group suggest that ignoring intra-familial correlations of infant mortality may result in incorrect inferences. Siblings' shared probabilities of dying as infants suggest that high-birth-order children were not necessarily disadvantaged in any systematic way.     

Assessing Placebo Response Using Bayesian Hierarchical Survival Models

The National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH) Collaborative Study of Long-Term Maintenance Drug Therapy in Recurrent Affective Illness was a multicenter randomized controlled clinical trial designed to determine the efficacy of a pharmacotherapy for the prevention of the recurrence of unipolar affective disorders. The outcome of interest in this study was the time until the recurrence of a depressive episode. The data show much heterogeneity between centers for the placebo group. The aim of this paper is to use Bayesian hierarchical survival models to investigate the heterogeneity of placebo effects among centers in the NIMH study. This heterogeneity is explored in terms of the marginal posterior distributions of parameters of interest and predictive distributions of future observations. The Gibbs sampling algorithm is used to approximate posterior and predictive distributions. Sensitivity of results to the assumption of a constant hazard survival distribution at the first stage of the hierarchy is examined by comparing results derived from a two component exponential mixture and a two component exponential changepoint model to the results derived from an exponential model. The second component of the mixture and changepoint models is assumed to be a surviving fraction. For each of these first stage parametric models sensitivity of results to second stage prior distributions is also examined. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

电影制作和发行过程中的安全漏洞分析

电影产业主要关心的一个问题是非法的（即未经授权的）电影复制行为。尽管非法的电影拷贝已经借助便携式物理媒介而得到传播，但低成本的高速宽带连接和P2P文件共享网络则能提供极其高效的传播媒介。本文对电影的制作和发行过程进行了简要分析，并指出了一些潜在的安全漏洞，这些漏洞使得非法电影拷贝能够被那些试图再次传播之的人所获取。     

Integrating emotion-focused therapy with the Satir model

The experiential humanistic family systems approach of Virginia Satir lacks a theoretical structure and is thus vulnerable to losing its experiential nature and being reduced to a mere collection of creative techniques. A way to effectively keep Satir's transformative presence alive is to integrate her approach with a model that is solidly grounded in explicit theory, relationship principles, and therapeutic skills and processes. The model proposed as appropriate to this effect is Emotion-Focused Therapy (EFT). Satir's approach, when integrated with EFT, becomes a model for creating change in individual and family systems that is indeed greater than the sum of its parts.     

Antibiotics

Abstract

This study of a college population showed that group A streptococcal pharyngitis accounted for 0.6%–2.5% of total visits to the student health service for the academic years 1977–78, 1978–79, and 1979–80. Streptococcal pharyngitis accounted for 4.0%–13.6% of all throat cultures performed. The prevalence of reported acute rheumatic fever (ARF) in this population was virtually nonexistent.

Review of medical records for 346 cases of streptococcal pharyngitis for academic year 1979–80 revealed that 253 (73%) were treated with oral penicillin V potassium. Nine (4.8%) repeat positive cultures occurred in 188 persons presenting for reculture after completing their course of therapy. All of the repeat positive cases had been treated with oral antibiotics, and almost all responded to a second course of oral treatment. It appeared that oral penicillin was adequate as primary prevention of ARF in this population.

Despite pitfalls of the bacitracin disc method, results of negative cultures prevented unnecessary antibiotic treatment in a population at low risk for ARF. The incidence of penicillin allergy approached 1%, supporting other studies that the risk of penicillin allergy is greater than the risk of ARF.     

On Teaching Statistical Practice: From Novice to Expert

This article introduces principles of learning based on research in cognitive science that help explain how learning works. We adapt these principles to the teaching of statistical practice and illustrate the application of these principles to the curricular design of a new master's degree program in applied statistics. We emphasize how these principles can be used not only to improve instruction at the course level but also at the program level.