CENTRAL BANKING AS A POLITICAL PRINCIPAL-AGENT PROBLEM

Due to their ties with elected leaders, central bankers may pursue policies that are not in society's best interests. Consequently, the relationship between the public and the central bank can be characterized as a principal-agent problem. An inflation and stabilization bias arise as a result of this agency problem and the magnitudes of these biases depend on the political environment. Various institutional proposals for eliminating these biases are examined, and we find that central bank independence and performance contracts work best. However, we argue that central bank independence is preferable for resolving the agency problem.     

Approximation of the Distribution of the Location Parameter in the Growth Curve Model

Abstract.  In this paper an Edgeworth-type approximation of order O(n ⁻² ) to the density of the estimator of the location parameter in the growth curve model has been derived. The approximation is a mixture of a normal and a Kotz-type distribution, thus being an elliptical distribution. A condition for unimodality of the mixture was found and marginal distribution of a subvector of the mixture distribution was derived. Finally, a small example was given to demonstrate an application of the approximation.     

INFLATION DYNAMICS AND SUBJECTIVE EXPECTATIONS IN THE UNITED STATES

We estimate a forward‐looking New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) for the United States using data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters as proxy for expected inflation. We obtain significant and plausible estimates for the structural parameters independently of whether we use the output gap or unit labor costs as a measure of marginal costs. Moreover, when estimating a Phillips curve where lagged inflation enters due to price indexation by nonreoptimizing firms, we obtain significant parameter estimates of the sign predicted by theory independently of the marginal cost measure used. (JEL E31)     

Model‐Based Non‐parametric Variance Estimation for Systematic Sampling

Abstract. Systematic sampling is frequently used in surveys, because of its ease of implementation and its design efficiency. An important drawback of systematic sampling, however, is that no direct estimator of the design variance is available. We describe a new estimator of the model‐based expectation of the design variance, under a non‐parametric model for the population. The non‐parametric model is sufficiently flexible that it can be expected to hold at least approximately in many situations with continuous auxiliary variables observed at the population level. We prove the model consistency of the estimator for both the anticipated variance and the design variance under a non‐parametric model with a univariate covariate. The broad applicability of the approach is demonstrated on a dataset from a forestry survey.     

‘The distance between us’: a comparative examination of the technical,spatial and temporal dimensions of the transnational social relationships of highly skilled migrants

In this article, through comparing two highly skilled migrant groups in London, we explore how new types of information and communication technologies (ICTs) shape the form and content of transnational practices through time and space. In so doing, we aim to contribute to several debates in the field of migration studies. First, our findings highlight enduring practical constraints emanating from everyday routines and responsibilities, thus questioning the extent to which ICTs may be shrinking the globe and freeing people, even highly skilled ones, from spatial and temporal fixity. Second, we challenge assumptions about the ease of transnationalism by exploring the range and complexity of long‐distance interpersonal relationships and their dynamics over time. Third, by focusing on a comparison of relatively affluent, highly skilled migrants, we question the usefulness of the category of ‘middling migrants’. Our findings illustrate that, within this general and wide ranging category, there are diverse experiences, expectations and opportunities of maintaining contact with friends and family at home.