WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY YOUR VOTE WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE?

One of the motivations for voting is that one vote can make a difference. In a presidential election, the probability that your vote is decisive is equal to the probability that your state is necessary for an electoral college win, times the probability the vote in your state is tied in that event. We computed these probabilities a week before the 2008 presidential election, using state‐by‐state election forecasts based on the latest polls. The states where a single vote was most likely to matter are New Mexico, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Colorado, where your vote had an approximate 1 in 10 million chance of determining the national election outcome. On average, a voter in America had a 1 in 60 million chance of being decisive in the presidential election. (JEL H0)     

On the captivity of the will: Sympathy, caring, and a moral sense of the human

We are concerned in this paper with the question of what more there is to human nature than cognition, with what it is to be a person (or animal) in the sense of something that would justify our sympathy. We examine pain, emotion, and the abrogation of values as sources of our sympathy for one another. We further argue that our sympathy over each of these unfortunate events is connected with our sense that they are beyond a person' s (or an animal' s) will. Computers, we suggest, ought not to engage our sympathy not because of their limited cognitive capacity, and not because they lack intent, but because their wills are too free.     

THE EFFECTS OF THE RACE OF THE INTERVIEWER ON RACE-RELATED ATTITUDES OF BLACK RESPONDENTS IN SRC/CPS NATIONAL ELECTION STUDIES

Previous research found substantial effects of the race of theinterviewer on measures of civic attitudes and electoral participationof blacks in NES surveys from 1964, 1976, 1978, 1980, and 1984.This study extends the previous analysis in two ways: it usesdata from two additional NES surveys, 1982 and 1986; and itfocuses on the effects of the race of the interviewer on race-relatedattitudes. Blacks interviewed by whites were much more likelyto express warmth and closeness toward whites than were blacksinterviewed by blacks. But whereas there is no race-of-interviewereffect on blacks' expressions of warmth toward blacks, thereis a clear race-of-interviewer effect on blacks' expressionsof closeness toward blacks. The pattern of responses to thecloseness items appears to result from the format of the question.The observed trend of decreasing expressed closeness of blackstoward blacks in NES surveys between 1976 and 1984 is an artifactof changes in the racial composition of the interviewer staff.     

ON THE EQUIVALENCE OF TWO VERSIONS OF THE PRESENT VALUE PROCEDURE

The central issue in equipment investment analysis is the selection of the best of two or more alternatives. A common procedure is to first assume that for each alternative there is an infinite stream of identical pieces of equipment. The present value of the associated infinite stream of revenues and costs is calculated. Then the alternative having the highest present value (where revenues are positive and costs are negative) is selected. The assumption of the infinite stream, though computationally desirable, is not very palatable to the decision maker. In this paper we show that the above procedure is equivalent to using a criterion which is definitely more appealing. The author has found this “equivalence” result to be helpful in teaching the basic concepts of the present value procedure. Also the result should be of interest to practitioners involved in equipment investment decision making.