Relations Between Measures of Irritability and Contingency Detection at 6 Months

The hypothesis that irritability and contingency detection are negatively correlated was examined in thirty‐one 6‐month‐old infants. Observation and maternal report‐based assessments of irritability were correlated with both a criterion score and a continuous score of contingency detection. Results indicated that greater irritability in infants was associated with lower contingency detection scores. Discussion focuses on identifying processes by which the 2 constructs may be associated.     

Human Salmonellosis: Estimation of Dose-Illness from Outbreak Data

The quantification of the relationship between the amount of microbial organisms ingested and a specific outcome such as infection, illness, or mortality is a key aspect of quantitative risk assessment. A main problem in determining such dose-response models is the availability of appropriate data. Human feeding trials have been criticized because only young healthy volunteers are selected to participate and low doses, as often occurring in real life, are typically not considered. Epidemiological outbreak data are considered to be more valuable, but are more subject to data uncertainty. In this article, we model the dose-illness relationship based on data of 20 Salmonella outbreaks, as discussed by the World Health Organization. In particular, we model the dose-illness relationship using generalized linear mixed models and fractional polynomials of dose. The fractional polynomial models are modified to satisfy the properties of different types of dose-illness models as proposed by Teunis et al . Within these models, differences in host susceptibility (susceptible versus normal population) are modeled as fixed effects whereas differences in serovar type and food matrix are modeled as random effects. In addition, two bootstrap procedures are presented. A first procedure accounts for stochastic variability whereas a second procedure accounts for both stochastic variability and data uncertainty. The analyses indicate that the susceptible population has a higher probability of illness at low dose levels when the combination pathogen-food matrix is extremely virulent and at high dose levels when the combination is less virulent. Furthermore, the analyses suggest that immunity exists in the normal population but not in the susceptible population.     

The 2003 Heat Wave in France: Dangerous Climate Change Here and Now

In an analysis of the French episode of heat wave in 2003, this article highlights how heat wave dangers result from the intricate association of natural and social factors. Unusually high temperatures, as well as socioeconomic vulnerability, along with social attenuation of hazards, in a general context where the anthropogenic contribution to climate change is becoming more plausible, led to an excess of 14,947 deaths in France, between August 4 and 18, 2003. The greatest increase in mortality was due to causes directly attributable to heat: dehydration, hyperthermia, heat stroke. In addition to age and gender, combinatorial factors included preexisting disease, medication, urban residence, isolation, poverty, and, probably, air pollution. Although diversely impacted or reported, many parts of Europe suffered human and other losses, such as farming and forestry through drought and fires. Summer 2003 was the hottest in Europe since 1500, very likely due in part to anthropogenic climate change. The French experience confirms research establishing that heat waves are a major mortal risk, number one among so-called natural hazards in postindustrial societies. Yet France had no policy in place, as if dangerous climate were restricted to a distant or uncertain future of climate change, or to preindustrial countries. We analyze the heat wave's profile as a strongly attenuated risk in the French context, as well as the causes and the effects of its sudden shift into amplification. Research and preparedness needs are highlighted.     

Explaining the demand for structured financial products: survey and field experiment evidence

In many countries structured investment products are popular among retail investors. We explain the demand for these products using unique field data where we let subjects freely design their “favorite” structured product. Results suggest that the supply with capital protected products (guarantee certificates) might indeed be demand-driven. This does not seem to be the case for other product categories where marketing and sales practices might play a more important role. In a survey among financial practitioners we find furthermore that a demand for capital protected products can be explained by loss aversion and saving motifs, e.g. for buying a house.     

Self-perception of Gambling Problems among Adolescents Identified as At-risk or Problem Gamblers

The relative influence of perceived familial addictive behaviors and personal gambling behaviors on adolescents' self-perceptions of gambling problems was examined. Students from five high schools in Connecticut (N = 3,886) were surveyed. Of those between the ages of 14 and 17 who scored two or more on the South Oaks Gambling Screen--Revised for Adolescents (n = 532; 72% male; 43% Caucasian), 14.3% reported having a current or past problem with gambling. Wagering larger amounts in a single day, gambling on a daily basis, and perceived presence of a family member with a gambling problem were associated with increased odds of self-perception of a gambling problem. Thus, adolescents who may be less likely to be identified for prevention efforts (due to lack of engagement in high stakes gambling or the real/perceived absence of a problematic gambler in the home) appear less likely to perceive a gambling problem. To advance prevention and treatment strategies, the apparent discrepancy between adolescents' self-perceptions and objective reports of problem gambling behaviors warrants further investigation.     

RACE AND EMPLOYMENT OUTCOMES: EVIDENCE FROM NBA COACHES

We study the impact of management diversity on employment outcomes using data on NBA head coaches that includes information on the race of each coach and his supervisor. We find that a supervisor is more likely to hire a coach of his own race. We also find that black coaches are less likely to be rehired to a second job within three years than their white counterparts, and that a head coach's race affects the quality of the opportunities he is offered. These findings are stronger for first-time coaches than experienced coaches, suggesting that observable information on performance mitigates bias. (JEL J0, J4, J7)     

A history of the mid-south sociological association

Abstract

Prior to his death in 2018, Marc Matre, Archivist and the longest serving Secretary-Treasurer of the Mid-South Sociological Association (MSSA), submitted a paper to the journal on the history of the MSSA. Reviewers wanted revisions that Marc was unable to complete because of his infirmity, and his last professional wish was that the journal and members of the association finish the work he had started. The following is that revision. It is the combined work of many who contributed to the project as noted in the acknowledgments. Biographical information about Marc follows the list of the principal founders of the association.     

Time‐change models for asymmetric processes

Many records in environmental sciences exhibit asymmetric trajectories. The physical mechanisms behind these records may lead for example to sample paths with different characteristics at high and low levels (up–down asymmetries) or in the ascending and descending phases leading to time irreversibility (front–back asymmetries). Such features are important for many applications, and there is a need for simple and tractable models that can reproduce them. In this paper, we explore original time‐change models where the clock is a stochastic process that depends on the observed trajectory. The ergodicity of the proposed model is established under general conditions, and this result is used to develop nonparametric estimation procedures based on the joint distribution of the process and its derivative. The methodology is illustrated on meteorological and oceanographic data sets. We show that, combined with a marginal transformation, the proposed methodology is able to reproduce important characteristics of the data set such as marginal distributions, up‐crossing intensity, and up–down and front–back asymmetries.