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1.
The hypothesis that irritability and contingency detection are negatively correlated was examined in thirty‐one 6‐month‐old infants. Observation and maternal report‐based assessments of irritability were correlated with both a criterion score and a continuous score of contingency detection. Results indicated that greater irritability in infants was associated with lower contingency detection scores. Discussion focuses on identifying processes by which the 2 constructs may be associated. 相似文献
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3.
Kaatje Bollaerts Marc Aerts Christel Faes Koen Grijspeerdt Jeroen Dewulf Koen Mintiens 《Risk analysis》2008,28(2):427-440
The quantification of the relationship between the amount of microbial organisms ingested and a specific outcome such as infection, illness, or mortality is a key aspect of quantitative risk assessment. A main problem in determining such dose-response models is the availability of appropriate data. Human feeding trials have been criticized because only young healthy volunteers are selected to participate and low doses, as often occurring in real life, are typically not considered. Epidemiological outbreak data are considered to be more valuable, but are more subject to data uncertainty. In this article, we model the dose-illness relationship based on data of 20 Salmonella outbreaks, as discussed by the World Health Organization. In particular, we model the dose-illness relationship using generalized linear mixed models and fractional polynomials of dose. The fractional polynomial models are modified to satisfy the properties of different types of dose-illness models as proposed by Teunis et al . Within these models, differences in host susceptibility (susceptible versus normal population) are modeled as fixed effects whereas differences in serovar type and food matrix are modeled as random effects. In addition, two bootstrap procedures are presented. A first procedure accounts for stochastic variability whereas a second procedure accounts for both stochastic variability and data uncertainty. The analyses indicate that the susceptible population has a higher probability of illness at low dose levels when the combination pathogen-food matrix is extremely virulent and at high dose levels when the combination is less virulent. Furthermore, the analyses suggest that immunity exists in the normal population but not in the susceptible population. 相似文献
4.
The 2003 Heat Wave in France: Dangerous Climate Change Here and Now 总被引:14,自引:0,他引:14
In an analysis of the French episode of heat wave in 2003, this article highlights how heat wave dangers result from the intricate association of natural and social factors. Unusually high temperatures, as well as socioeconomic vulnerability, along with social attenuation of hazards, in a general context where the anthropogenic contribution to climate change is becoming more plausible, led to an excess of 14,947 deaths in France, between August 4 and 18, 2003. The greatest increase in mortality was due to causes directly attributable to heat: dehydration, hyperthermia, heat stroke. In addition to age and gender, combinatorial factors included preexisting disease, medication, urban residence, isolation, poverty, and, probably, air pollution. Although diversely impacted or reported, many parts of Europe suffered human and other losses, such as farming and forestry through drought and fires. Summer 2003 was the hottest in Europe since 1500, very likely due in part to anthropogenic climate change. The French experience confirms research establishing that heat waves are a major mortal risk, number one among so-called natural hazards in postindustrial societies. Yet France had no policy in place, as if dangerous climate were restricted to a distant or uncertain future of climate change, or to preindustrial countries. We analyze the heat wave's profile as a strongly attenuated risk in the French context, as well as the causes and the effects of its sudden shift into amplification. Research and preparedness needs are highlighted. 相似文献
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Explaining the demand for structured financial products: survey and field experiment evidence 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
In many countries structured investment products are popular among retail investors. We explain the demand for these products
using unique field data where we let subjects freely design their “favorite” structured product. Results suggest that the
supply with capital protected products (guarantee certificates) might indeed be demand-driven. This does not seem to be the
case for other product categories where marketing and sales practices might play a more important role. In a survey among
financial practitioners we find furthermore that a demand for capital protected products can be explained by loss aversion
and saving motifs, e.g. for buying a house. 相似文献
7.
Dennis Wagenaar Tiaravanni Hermawan Marc J. C. van den Homberg Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts Heidi Kreibich Hans de Moel Laurens M. Bouwer 《Risk analysis》2021,41(1):37-55
Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer. 相似文献
8.
Papers in this special issue focus on sustainable corporate governance measures in the aftermath of the financial crisis, and a background environment of increased scepticism over executive pay and corporate behaviour more generally. The authors provide an overview of recent corporate governance reforms, including ‘say‐on‐pay’ and gender‐pay‐gap transparency, and explain how the research papers in the special issue contribute to understanding of corporate governance research and practice in the areas of boards of directors, corporate governance reform and corporate culture and risk‐taking. 相似文献
9.
In the homogeneous case of one-dimensional objects, we show that any relation that is positive and homothetic can be represented
by a ratio-scale and a unique and constant biasing factor. This factor may favor or disfavor the preference for an object
over another. In the first case, preferences are complete but not transitive and an object may be preferred even when its
value is lower. In the second case, preferences are asymmetric and transitive but not negatively transitive and it may not
be sufficient for an object to have a greater value to be preferred. In this manner, the biasing factor reflects the extent
to which preferences may depart from a maximization process. 相似文献
10.
Cronce JM Corbin WR Steinberg MA Potenza MN 《Journal of gambling studies / co-sponsored by the National Council on Problem Gambling and Institute for the Study of Gambling and Commercial Gaming》2007,23(4):363-375
The relative influence of perceived familial addictive behaviors and personal gambling behaviors on adolescents' self-perceptions of gambling problems was examined. Students from five high schools in Connecticut (N = 3,886) were surveyed. Of those between the ages of 14 and 17 who scored two or more on the South Oaks Gambling Screen--Revised for Adolescents (n = 532; 72% male; 43% Caucasian), 14.3% reported having a current or past problem with gambling. Wagering larger amounts in a single day, gambling on a daily basis, and perceived presence of a family member with a gambling problem were associated with increased odds of self-perception of a gambling problem. Thus, adolescents who may be less likely to be identified for prevention efforts (due to lack of engagement in high stakes gambling or the real/perceived absence of a problematic gambler in the home) appear less likely to perceive a gambling problem. To advance prevention and treatment strategies, the apparent discrepancy between adolescents' self-perceptions and objective reports of problem gambling behaviors warrants further investigation. 相似文献