Public pensions in transition

The main purpose of this paper is to analyze problems of financing an old-age insurance when birth rates are low and population declines or fertility fluctuates with time. A government then searches for optimal policies to cope with such problems. A first criterion could be seen in the Pareto principle. But we all know that there is no way out of PAYG unless at least one generation has to pay for the transition. Therefore an optimal policy is concerned with intergenerational redistribution and optimal growth.In the absence of public pensions the economy will in the long run converge to a steady state which is not optimal in the sense of a golden rule. This dynamic in-efficiency results from the decentralized decision making by the consumers and the firms. If the PAYG system influences the savings ratio of the economy, public pensions can be seen as an instrument to implement a modified golden rule.Paper presented at the ISPE-conference on The Fiscal Implications of an Ageing Population, Vaalsbroek, The Netherlands, May 30–June 1, 1990. I am obliged to Dieter Bös, Friedrich Breyer, Christian Keuschnigg, Wolfgang Kitterer, and an anonymous referee for helpful comments on an earlier draft of this paper. Financial support through Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft, SFB 303 is gratefully acknowledged.     

The Determinants of Trust and Credibility in Environmental Risk Communication: An Empirical Study

This study examines a key component of environmental risk communication; trust and credibility. The study was conducted in two parts. In the first part, six hypotheses regarding the perceptions and determinants of trust and credibility were tested against survey data. The hypotheses were supported by the data. The most important hypothesis was that perceptions of trust and credibility are dependent on three factors: perceptions of knowledge and expertise; perceptions of openness and honesty; and perceptions of concern and care. In the second part, models were constructed with perceptions of trust and credibility as the dependent variable. The goal was to examine the data for findings with direct policy implications. One such finding was that defying a negative stereotype is key to improving perceptions of trust and credibility.     

Retrofitting Drucker: Knowledge work under cognitive capitalism

This article uses Peter Drucker's work vector-like, to carry the thesis of cognitive capitalism into the management field. Drucker's prophetic insights into the knowledge society are juxtaposed with recent, Italian autonomist Marxist-inspired analyses of capitalism's cognitive phase. If the capacity to create knowledge – or what autonomists call the ‘general intellect’ – is becoming the key productive force, arguably there is a need for a full-blown social form of knowledge management. Our reading of Drucker thus retrieves the one worthwhile thing from the rubble of normative knowledge management. It is the idea of society-level knowledge management premised on a universal and unconditional guaranteed basic income (GBI; or social wage). Basic income represents not just a social investment in knowledge, which Drucker himself called for, but also compensation for biolabour's augmented social productivity. With Drucker as the steppingstone, we conclude, the autonomist tradition merits greater attention from critical management and organisational scholars interested in factoring class and gender back into the knowledge management equation.     

Use of Experiential Learning,Reflective Writing,and Metacognition to Develop Cultural Humility Among Undergraduate Students

This study discusses the use of experiential learning, reflective writing, and metacognition to develop cultural humility among undergraduate students enrolled in a social and economic justice course. Students participated in an activity that challenged them to learn about people who may have different social identities and experiences from their own such as attending a service in a religion different from their own. Then students wrote a reflective essay in which they used the margin of the paper as a safe space to write anything that came to mind during the writing process. A thematic analysis of students’ comments suggests that students used the space to examine their emotions, seek understanding of self and others, and recognize their privilege.     

The Protective Circle: Queer Fathers and Counselors

This article provides a review of the literature addressing the unique needs and experiences of queer fathers. Despite the growing number of queer fathers and families, and increasing scholarship on this topic, there is a major dearth in the counseling scholarship and practice related to queer families, or more specifically and especially, queer fatherhood. Thus, this article uses the concept of a “protective circle” to assist professional counselors to understand their vital role within a queer father and familial system. By understanding the experiences and needs of queer fathers, counselors can better conceptualize and assist this underserved and often silenced community.     

Interactive profit-planning systems and market turbulence: A dynamic capabilities perspective

This article describes, theorizes and empirically investigates the concept of interactive profit-planning systems (PPS) through the lens of the dynamic capabilities logic. With this conceptualization: interactive PPS capabilities comprise budgeting, forecasting and results-reporting routines, in which top and middle managers interact to create knowledge for sensing, seizing, and business model reconfiguring (to manage strategic business change). Survey data from 331 Australian firms is analyzed employing partial least squares structural equation modeling. The data provides support for two hypotheses: (1) greater market turbulence strengthens the positive effect of interactive PPS capabilities on business unit performance; and (2) greater market turbulence strengthens the positive effect of flexibility values (of organizational culture) on interactive PPS capabilities. Our findings show that interactive PPS capabilities function according to the salient tenets of the dynamic capabilities logic, and clarify the beneficial roles of formal cybernetic control systems and the intertwined involvement of top and middle managers in using dynamic capabilities.     

Automating and evaluating reversible jump MCMC proposal distributions

The reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler (Green in Biometrika 82:711–732, 1995) has become an invaluable device for Bayesian practitioners. However, the primary difficulty with the sampler lies with the efficient construction of transitions between competing models of possibly differing dimensionality and interpretation. We propose the use of a marginal density estimator to construct between-model proposal distributions. This provides both a step towards black-box simulation for reversible jump samplers, and a tool to examine the utility of common between-model mapping strategies. We compare the performance of our approach to well established alternatives in both time series and mixture model examples.     

SOME TESTS OF BINOMIAL PROBABILITY ASSESSMENTS

A replication of the Alpert-Raiffa probability assessment experiment is used to motivate the development of several tests for evaluating assessors. The tests permit an evaluation of an assessor's accuracy in estimating target quantities and in estimating his own uncertainty as well. Assumption of normal subjective distributions permits the determination of subjective variances. Data from trial assessments are employed to test models which assert that assessed quantities are equal to subjectively assessed error variances. Several tests of the latter type are compared using data from individual, as well as pooled, assessors.     

The hypothesized effects of ability in the turnover process

Findings from studies that have investigated the relationship between task-relevant ability and turnover have been inconsistent. A process model is presented that suggests that ability may be related to turnover through the individual's perception of both the ease and desirability of movement. The potential effect of ability on the turnover process and its practical and theoretical implications are discussed.