Quantifying the Hurricane Catastrophe Risk to Offshore Wind Power

The U.S. Department of Energy has estimated that over 50 GW of offshore wind power will be required for the United States to generate 20% of its electricity from wind. Developers are actively planning offshore wind farms along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf coasts and several leases have been signed for offshore sites. These planned projects are in areas that are sometimes struck by hurricanes. We present a method to estimate the catastrophe risk to offshore wind power using simulated hurricanes. Using this method, we estimate the fraction of offshore wind power simultaneously offline and the cumulative damage in a region. In Texas, the most vulnerable region we studied, 10% of offshore wind power could be offline simultaneously because of hurricane damage with a 100‐year return period and 6% could be destroyed in any 10‐year period. We also estimate the risks to single wind farms in four representative locations; we find the risks are significant but lower than those estimated in previously published results. Much of the hurricane risk to offshore wind turbines can be mitigated by designing turbines for higher maximum wind speeds, ensuring that turbine nacelles can turn quickly to track the wind direction even when grid power is lost, and building in areas with lower risk.     

A Solar-Centric Approach to Improving Estimates of Exposure Processes for Coronal Mass Ejections

We present a solar-centric approach to estimating the probability of extreme coronal mass ejections (CME) using the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph Experiment (LASCO) CME Catalog observations updated through May 2018 and an updated list of near-Earth interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICME). We examine robust statistical approaches to the estimation of extreme events. We then assume a variety of time-independent distributions fitting, and then comparing, the different probability distributions to the relevant regions of the cumulative distributions of the observed CME speeds. Using these results, we then obtain the probability that the velocity of a CME exceeds a particular threshold by extrapolation. We conclude that about 1.72% of the CMEs recorded with SOHO LASCO arrive at the Earth over the time both data sets overlap (November 1996 to September 2017). Then, assuming that 1.72% of all CMEs pass the Earth, we can obtain a first-order estimate of the probability of an extreme space weather event on Earth. To estimate the probability over the next decade of a CME, we fit a Poisson distribution to the complementary cumulative distribution function. We inferred a decadal probability of between 0.01 and 0.09 for an event of at least the size of the large 2012 event, and a probability between 0.0002 and 0.016 for the size of the 1859 Carrington event.     

Migrant employment and the recession--the case of the Irish in Britain

"The past decade has witnessed a substantial contraction in the size of the Irishborn community in Britain. This paper uses shift share analysis to assess the extent to which job losses amongst the Irish in Britain over the years 1971-1977 may have induced return migration to Ireland. The article concludes that such 'push' factors are likely to have been relatively weak in comparison to the 'pull' of an Irish economy considerably more buoyant than that of Britain."     

Rethinking integration in mixed methods research using data from different eras: lessons from a project about teenage vocational behaviour

Mixed methods research requires integration of qualitative and quantitative data. However, there is debate about how to define integration and what is required for integration to occur. This paper describes a mixed methods research project which revisits datasets from different eras, which were originally instigated for different purposes and had different theoretical frameworks. Using selected results about the relationship between teenagers’ vocational aspirations and adult occupations we show how the research topic and question integrated the projects within a constructivist theoretical position. We argue that reanalysing and comparing historical datasets can provide new insights into a topic even with minimal integration of the data. We recommend a broad definition of integration and reflexive research practice to encourage innovation and diversity in mixed methods research, particularly with regard to reanalysis of datasets from different eras.     

Letter to the Editor

Abstract

Re: article “Moving to a hostel: The perceptions of older people who move from hospital to hostel (low level) care” (Vol. 53, No. 1, pp. 9–13)     

Planning for natural disasters in a stochastic world

We examine the risks and management of natural disasters. A benefit-cost framework focuses attention on (1) designing control structures, such as dams and levees, and mitigation policies, such as construction standards, to protect lives and property against small and medium, rather than large sized natural disasters; and (2) warning and evacuation to save lives for large natural disasters. Providing information rather than command solutions generally enhances social benefits, if people understand the risks and bear the expected costs. Requiring actuarially fair insurance simultaneously provides information and has individuals bear the expected costs.     

Disaster impact and recovery: what children and young people can tell us

Christchurch's earthquakes revealed children's vulnerability to disaster but also their ability to respond and play an active role in recovery. We argue that children's voices need to be heard and given priority in the recovery process because the disaster impacts on them and their families in ways that are not recognised or well understood. We report the findings of a study undertaken with 94 Christchurch children. Its aim was to give voice to children's experiences of post-earthquake Christchurch and in doing so contribute to post-disaster recovery. The experiences of these Christchurch children offer other children, parents, government and agencies valuable insights into how to manage the recovery process in ways that best meet children's needs. In the post-disaster recovery period, decision-makers need to recognise children as authentic actors in the recovery process and should commit to hearing children's voices throughout the rebuilding. Children and young people's resilience and positive commitment to Christchurch are assets that should be capitalised on in the longer-term recovery process.     

Consent requires a relationship: rethinking group consent and its timing in ethnographic research

ABSTRACT

Activist groups in ethnographic research re-negotiated our Ethics Committee’s expected order of securing consent before data collection, demonstrating the importance of researchers taking time to build relationships first. Although the Ethics Committee expected us to obtain group consent, the literature provides little guidance on how to do this. We developed a Memorandum of Understanding to summarize what forms of participant observation each group agreed to and how we would reciprocate. In this article, we (re)conceptualize consent, using analogies to consent in social contract theory and sexual relations to offer a critical perspective on what constitutes consent. We argue that taking time to build relationships before expecting research participants to consent and replacing informed consent with a negotiated agreement is a more ethical approach. We advocate for Ethics Committees to expand the meaning of ‘informed consent’ and review its timing, especially for ethnographic research with groups.     

Trends and Prospects in Africa

In Africa, modernisation and family change are two key factorsimpinging on the traditional participatory role of the ageingin the community. The article examines survey evidence of theactual level of involvement of Ghana's elders in social participation,and briefly considers what might be done to encourage theircontinued participation.     

Urbanization, caring for elderly people and the changing African family: The challenge to social policy

An inquiry into the role of social welfare in the development process in Africa must start by determining the position of the family in the face of all the social changes that are taking place. The role of the traditional African family may be broadly subdivided into its social role, its economic role and its role as an agent for the transmission and renewal of sociocultural values. Intraditional African societies, there is a complex interaction between the members of the family and the community. Social organization centres on the kinship group and the age group. The economic, political and sociocultural values of present-day Africa, with its sprawling urban centres and industrial zones, differ increasingly from its traditional values. In Africa, the concept of development has been greatly influenced by the colonial experience and Western modernization theory which posited that economic development and growth, mainly through industrialization, would automatically raise the living standards and meet the social needs of the population. Social welfare was viewed as a non-productive activity and therefore accorded a low priority in national development planning and resource allocation. In such a context, the scope of social policy is limited and cannot deal with the critical problems of mass poverty and deprivation afflicting the majority of African peoples, especially in rural areas. The family is disintegrating and social change has brought in its wake a host of new social problems which remedial social welfare services are not adequate to meet. Using Ghana as an example, this paper will critically examine these key issues and make recommendations for effective social policies and programmes that must be incorporated centrally into national development plans.