Direct and Indirect Causal Effects via Potential Outcomes*

Abstract. The use of the concept of ‘direct’ versus ‘indirect’ causal effects is common, not only in statistics but also in many areas of social and economic sciences. The related terms of ‘biomarkers’ and ‘surrogates’ are common in pharmacological and biomedical sciences. Sometimes this concept is represented by graphical displays of various kinds. The view here is that there is a great deal of imprecise discussion surrounding this topic and, moreover, that the most straightforward way to clarify the situation is by using potential outcomes to define causal effects. In particular, I suggest that the use of principal stratification is key to understanding the meaning of direct and indirect causal effects. A current study of anthrax vaccine will be used to illustrate ideas.     

Trade-Offs Between Formal Home Health Care and Informal Family CareGiving

Using 1994 National Long Term Care Survey data, we estimated logistic regressions of formal and informal home health care use and hours. Home health care use and intensity were differentially impacted by chronic conditions, are higher for Medicaid enrollees and rural or small town residents, but lower for HMO enrollees. Decreases in the probability of home health care use increased informal instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) support four hours and decreased informal activities of daily living (ADL) support eight hours weekly. IADL caregiving substituted for formal care, but ADL caregiving declined with reductions in formal care. Public policy reducing formal home health care access may reduce informal ADL caregiving and increase informal IADL caregiving, producing net declines in support.     

Learning how to learn: the key to CQI

All CQI/TQM efforts share a common purpose: to learn something that can correct past mistakes and/or to create better futures. Because learning is a dynamic circular process, the information about a problem or an opportunity will be limited unless four perceptions of the truth--each valid, and each incomplete--are accepted. These four types of learning styles or ways of perceiving are: abstract conceptualizers, active experimenters, concrete experiencers, and reflective observers. Unless all the stages of the learning process have been fully completed, unless all the strokes work in harmony, we cannot be confident that a CQI effort has added its full value. A CQI team's interpersonal process, the tools by which individually limited truths are forged into a consensual holistic truth, must ensure that the group's effort goes "around in circles."     

Thank God you're here: the coming generation and their role in future‐proofing Australia from the challenges of population ageing

Like much of the industrialised world, Australia's population is ageing, the implications of which are twofold: increasing demand for publicly funded services and a decline in the supply of prime working‐age people. In grappling with the challenges of a diminishing workforce, the Australian Government is currently relying on its migration programs to provide both the much‐needed labour and skills for the resource boom and also to stimulate the economy through population growth. However, there may be another, not yet fully considered solution to the upcoming demographic problem. This paper investigates how the grandchildren of the baby boomers, termed here the Thank God You're Here generation (Gen TGYH), might impact on Australia's predicted workforce shortage. This generation of workers will enter the labour force as the last of the baby boomers reach retirement age, and will not only be bigger in size than preceding generations (Y, X and Baby Boomers), but also potentially be better educated than the retiring generation. This paper will also canvas the opportunities for both Gen TGYH and employers as well as the challenges for policymakers and governments in maximising the opportunity provided by this generation in the Australian economy.     

Do cultural orientations moderate the relation between Chinese adolescents’ shyness and depressive symptoms? It depends on their academic achievement

We examined the moderating roles of individualistic and collectivistic cultural orientations and academic achievement on the relation between Chinese adolescents’ shyness and depressive symptoms. A sample of Chinese adolescents (N = 492) from an urban school participated in the study during seventh (T1) and eighth (T2) grades. Adolescents self‐reported their shyness, cultural orientations, and depressive symptoms. The school provided records of their academic achievement. Concurrently, shyness and individualism were positively whereas collectivism and academic achievement were negatively, associated with adolescents’ depressive symptoms. Longitudinally, T1 shyness (but not individualism, collectivism, or academic achievement) predicted T2 depressive symptoms after controlling for stability in depressive symptoms. Concurrent relations between shyness and depressive symptoms were moderated by adolescents’ cultural orientations. Specifically, collectivism was protective whereas individualism was harmful, for shy adolescents’ adjustment. Furthermore, collectivism and academic achievement jointly moderated the relations between shyness and depressive symptoms concurrently and longitudinally. The results suggest that cultural orientations may influence shy adolescents’ depression symptoms through individual‐level self‐evaluation, and indicate that cultural factors and academic achievement need to be considered comprehensively for understanding and improving shy Chinese adolescents’ psychological adjustment.     

Advisers and the Fiduciary Duty Debate

This work concerns itself with the debate taking place in the United States about the duty of care financial advisers owe investors. On one side it is argued that advisers need only concern themselves with recommendations which meet certain suitability standards. On the other side, there are those who argue the suitability standard is not strong enough to adequately protect investor interests. Instead of ensuring investment recommendations are merely suitable, financial advisers owe their investors a fiduciary duty to “act in the best interest of the customer without regard to the financial or other interests … of the investment adviser providing the advice.” (SEC, 2011). In applying a properly understood conception of what fiduciary means I argue that regulations should not be harmonized but that fiduciary duty should apply to all who provide personalized investment advice to retail customers. I will further argue that even if the regulations are harmonized as proposed, because of exemptions for broker‐dealers as envisioned in the proposal, and which currently apply to Registered Investment Advisers, the efficacy of fiduciary duty is diluted to the point of rendering its current application, much less its potential uniform imposition, irrelevant.     

空间理论视域下农民工“城市不融入”探究

现阶段,农民工作为城市化的建设者和贡献者,遭遇到无法融入城市的不公平境遇。20世纪70年代以来兴起的空间理论为解释农民工“城市不融入”问题提供了一个有力视角。基于空间理论分析,造成农民工“城市不融入”的主要原因是：制度空间设计下的户籍制度具有双重逻辑：既带来“城”和“乡”空间对立,又形成“农民”和“市民”身份排斥;地域空间中,住房的缺失与“城中村”形成,“寄生空间”与“城市空间”对立;认同空间中,“市民”的空间排斥和“农民工”的自我怀疑无法达成心理共识。要解决农民工“城市不融入”,应在制度空间、地域空间以及认同空间的基础上构建空间融入。     

In search of career satisfaction: African-American public relations practitioners, pigeonholing, and the workplace

The goals of the research were to explore African-American practitioners’ satisfaction with public relations as a career and to examine their perceptions of tokenism and pigeonholing in the workplace. Three key themes emerged from the research: career entry and social support in public relations; encounters with everyday racism; and pigeonholing in public relations. For the majority of 12 African-American practitioners interviewed, they have experienced discrimination in their careers and in public relations, yet the practitioners did not see themselves as pigeonholed in their roles or positions. The complete study can be requested from the author.     

Walking Ability is Associated with Social Communication Skills in Infants at High Risk for Autism Spectrum Disorder

Achievement of early motor milestones in infancy affords new opportunities for social interaction and communication. Research has shown that both motor and social deficits are observed in infants who later develop autism spectrum disorder (ASD). This study examined associations between motor and Social communication skills in 12‐month‐old infant siblings of children with ASD who are at heightened risk for developmental delays (N = 86) and low‐risk, typically developing infants (N = 113). Infants were classified into one of three groups based on their walking ability: walkers (walks independently), standers (stands independently), or prewalkers (does not yet stand or walk independently). Social communication and cognitive skills were assessed with two standardized assessments (Communication and Symbolic Behaviors Scales [CSBS] and Mullen Scales of Early Learning) and compared across the three walking groups. Results demonstrated that high‐risk walkers showed superior Social communication skills, but commensurate cognitive skills, compared to high‐risk prewalkers. In contrast, Social communication and cognitive skills were largely comparable for low‐risk infants, regardless of walking status. Findings suggest that for high‐risk infants, who are already vulnerable to developmental delays and ASD, independent walking may facilitate the emergence of Social communication abilities. Pivotal motor milestones may serve as useful indicators of Social communication delays and targets for intervention.