Moderate Deviations for Bayes Posteriors

Let ( X_k ) k be a sequence of i.i.d. random variables taking values in a set , and consider the problem of estimating the law of X₁ in a Bayesian framework. We prove, under mild conditions on the prior, that the sequence of posterior distributions satisfies a moderate deviation principle.     

THE ANSWERING MACHINE POSES MANY QUESTIONS FOR TELEPHONE SURVEY RESEARCHERS

The proliferation of the telephone answering machine raisesa number of questions about the continued efficiency of thetelephone as a data-gathering mechanism. The most critical ofthese is what effect the use of these machines might have onestablishing contact with potential respondents. If individualsroutinely use these machines to screen calls, then their accessibilityto telephone survey researchers will be restricted. A secondquestion is the degree to which respondents who own answeringmachines and are reachable are likely to participate in a survey.A third question is the extent to which the incidence of theanswering machine as a response disposition might vary by thetime of calling and the respondent's place of residence. Thefindings of this study, based on a nationwide survey, pointto a significant proportion of answering machine owners beingreachable and willing to participate. Furthermore, the answeringmachine appears to be in use more on weekends than on weekdayevenings and in more urbanized areas than in areas with fewerinhabitants.     

Race and gender as bases of class fractions and their effects on earnings

Maints auteurs ont affirmé que la race et le sexe repreésentent des bases de fractions de classe en ce sens que leur construction sociale permet à des segments d'une classe de se constituer à partir de caractéristiques liées à la race et au sexe. Cependant, les études ernpiriques antérieures tendent à considérer seulernent la race et le sexe comme des facteurs de fractionnernent au sein de la classe ouvrière seulement. À l'aide des données du recensement de 1986, cette communication analyse lea effets interactifs de la race et du sexe sur le revenu considéré comme facteur de fractionnement des classes. Les recherches de l'auteur indiquent que les effets produits par le groupement par race et par sexe sont inégaux en ce qui trait au revenu, les hommes gagnant davantage que les femmes tout en étant davantage ‘fractionnés’ par le revenu que les femmes. Lorsqu'on fait abstraction des différences de revenu entre classes, la race et le sexe demeurent des facteurs explicatifs importants du niveau de revenu, bien que leurs effets soient plus marqués chez les cadres, les professionnels et les ouvriers. L'écart entre les sexes est plus prononcé, mais la race demeure importante comme facteur de fractionnement au niveau des revenus des homrnes, měme après correction pour tenir cornpte d'autres variables. L'auteur affirme que l'assimilation des relations de sexe et de race aux relations entre classes est insatisfaisante et qu'il existe de sérieuses considérations théoriques pour considérer que les causes des inégalités entre les sexes et les races se trouvent non seulement à l'intérieur du domaine de la production, mais également à l'extérieur de celui-ci. The literature has argued that race and gender are bases of class fractions in that their social construction enables segments of a class to be constituted on racialized and gender-linked characteristics. However, previous empirical works tend to consider race or gender as fractionalizing the working class only. Using the 1986 Census data, this paper analyses the interactive effects of race and gender on earnings as grounds of fractionalizing classes. The findings indicate that race and gender groupings produce unequal effects on earnings: males have an income advantage over females, but race fractionalizes the earnings of men to a greater extent than for women. When inter-class differences in earnings are removed, race and gender remain important in explaining earnings, although their effects are stronger among the managerial, the professsional, and the working class. The gender gap is more pronounced, but race remains important in fractionalizing the earnings of men even after controlling for other variables. The paper argues that it is insufficient to subsume gender and race relations under class relations, and that there are compelling theoretical grounds to consider gender and race inequality as having roots both within and outside the sphere of production.     

Social Capital, Resource Mobilization and Origins of the Civil Rights Movement

Abstract  This article critiques the contradictory claims of Robert Putnam and Aldon Morris in relation to the American civil rights movement. Putnam identifies the South as the American region most lacking in social capital, and argues more generally that the 1960s marked a watershed beyond which social capital in the United States declined in all regions. Morris identifies the indigenous resources of southern African American communities as fundamental to the civil rights movement's emergence in the late 1950s and sees the social networks and cultural assets of the African American church in particular as central to the movement. The article disputes Putnam's negative judgment of the South by highlighting the role played by various types of social capital in the movement's launch. It also challenges Morris's over-emphasis on the ability of charismatic, black church leadership to deliver mass support and re-affirms the role played by female lay figures, such as beauticians.     

POWER APPROXIMATIONS FOR A TWO-ECHELON INVENTORY SYSTEM USING SERVICE LEVELS

We consider a two-echelon inventory system with one warehouse and several stores. The warehouse as well as the stores are controlled by periodic review (s, S) inventory policies. We study the interrelationship between the safety stocks at the warehouse and the stores. Stockouts at the warehouse will result in supply delays to the stores and cause the lead time to be stochastic. The stores may react by increasing their safety stock. However, there is a trade-off between the safety stock at the warehouse and the safety stock at the stores. We use a service level at the warehouse to quantify the effect of warehouse stockouts on the lead time to the stores. The service level at the warehouse is considered a decision variable to find the best compromise between the various safety stocks by minimizing the overall costs. Using power approximations for the (s, S) policies, we provide an iterative procedure for adjusting the lead time distribution to the stores; this can result in substantial savings, but it doesn't guarantee the overall optimality. Numerical studies are provided to test the accuracy of approximations. The effects of the different system parameters on the inventory policy give general guidelines for use of the policies.     

Governing the transnational organic cotton network from Benin

In this article, we attempt to conceptualize the historical development and the governance structure of the transnational organic cotton network from Benin. We aim to discover how the organic cotton production‐consumption network is governed locally and internationally. Existing bodies of literature on international agricultural production networks, in particular the Global Value Chains (GVC) perspective, focus on economic dimensions, but find it difficult to incorporate the sustainability dimension. We favour widening the concept of GVCs beyond economics by acknowledging and including environmental rationalities and the representatives of their interests, not as external elements, but rather as co‐governing or co‐structuring factors (or actors) of sustainable value chains. Our findings reveal that beyond the traditional producer versus buyer dualism, intermediate stakeholders, namely transnational and local environmental NGO networks, are instrumental in the construction, maintenance and transformation of the organic cotton network. It is also apparent that farmers' leaders play an important role in mediating and (re)building trust among organic farmers, though they exert insufficient vertical power in the organic cotton network to control it.     

Construction and Deconstruction of Essence in Representating Social Groups: Identity Projects, Stereotyping, and Racism

Projecting essence onto a social category means to think, talk, and act as if the category were a discrete natural kind and as if its members were all endowed with the same immutable attributes determined by the category's essence. Essentializing may happen implicitly or on purpose in representing ingroups and outgroups. We argue that essentializing is a versatile representational tool (a) that is used to create identity in groups with chosen membership in order to make the group appear as a unitary entity, (b) that outsiders often draw on a group's essentialist self-construal in their judgements about the groups, (c) that judgements about members of forced social categories are often informed by essentialist thinking that easily switches to discrimination and racism, and (d) that under certain historical and political conditions members of social categories and groups may contest their essentialized identity, such as parts of the feminist movement, or that they may attempt to reconstruct an essentialized identity, such as parts of the homosexual movement or the largely defunct European nobility. Besides explicit political and power interests, we see communication processes and language use as a tacit force driving essentialization of social categories.     

The Determinants of Expenditure on Children's Personal Social Services

¹ Peter C. Smith, Centre for Health Economics, University of York, York YO1 5DD, UK. E-mail: pcsl{at}york.ac.ukAbstract Summary This paper reports the results of a statistical study of thedeterminants of expenditure on children's social services intwenty-five local authorities in England. The study was commissionedas part of the Government's review of Standard Spending Assessmentsfor Personal Social Services. The study combined data from avariety of sources, including local authority registers, toinfer the distribution of expenditure between 1,036 small areaswith populations of about 10,000. Multilevel statistical techniqueswere used, and suggested that the principal determinants ofexpenditure are children in lone parent families, children infamilies of income support claimants, children living in flats,children with limiting long-standing illness, and populationdensity. As well as these results, the study yielded importantinsights into potential improvements for Standard Spending Assessmentmethodology.