On the derivation of a full life table from mortality data recorded in five-year age groups

Mortality data are often gathered using 5-year age groups rather than individual years of life. Furthermore, it is common practice to use a large open-ended interval (such as 85 and over) for mortality data at the older ages. These limitations of the data pose problems for the actuary or demographer who wishes to compile a full and accurate life table using individual years of life. The author devises formulae which handle these problems. He also devises methods for handling mortality during the 1st year of life and for dealing with other technical problems which arise in the compilation of the full life table from grouped data.     

Engaging with Comparative Risk Appraisals: Public Views on Policy Priorities for Environmental Risk Governance

Communicating the rationale for allocating resources to manage policy priorities and their risks is challenging. Here, we demonstrate that environmental risks have diverse attributes and locales in their effects that may drive disproportionate responses among citizens. When 2,065 survey participants deployed summary information and their own understanding to assess 12 policy‐level environmental risks singularly, their assessment differed from a prior expert assessment. However, participants provided rankings similar to those of experts when these same 12 risks were considered as a group, allowing comparison between the different risks. Following this, when individuals were shown the prior expert assessment of this portfolio, they expressed a moderate level of confidence with the combined expert analysis. These are important findings for the comprehension of policy risks that may be subject to augmentation by climate change, their representation alongside other threats within national risk assessments, and interpretations of agency for public risk management by citizens and others.     

Forensic Evaluation of Deaf Individuals: Challenges and Strategies

ABSTRACT

Forensic evaluation of deaf individuals presents unique challenges due to many examinees’ fund of information deficits, potential for language deprivation, and examiners’ frequent lack of creativity regarding communication methods. This article describes challenges most frequently encountered in competency to stand trial and criminal responsibility evaluations and offers strategies for overcoming them. The value of employing multiple communication methods, especially the use of illustrations, is emphasized. Suggestions also are offered regarding preparing evaluation reports and effectively communicating “key deaf fundamentals” to legal personnel. Encouragement is offered for qualified, sign-fluent professionals to engage in forensic work.     

Assessing the devolution revolution: How accurate are state-level estimates from the current population survey

The devolution of many social policy responsibilities from the Federal government to states has prompted increased interest in state-level measures of need. One data source that could be used to provide more state-level information on a variety of topics is the Current Population Survey (CPS). During the past ten years the CPS has been used to produce state-level estimates on a variety of measures. However, there has been little systematic evaluation of these data. This paper provides measures of accuracy for several state-level estimates derived from the CPS. These include standard errors for single-year estimates, three-year averages, and five-year averages of the March CPS measures; standard errors for three-year averages of 12-month CPS files; and comparison of CPS-based estimates to data from the Decennial Census. The paper also examines the relative accuracy of CPS estimates based on states' size. The information in this study will help analysts better understand the tradeoffs between timeliness and accuracy to be considered when using state-level estimates derived from the CPS.     

Who volunteers?

Summary The 1990 NHS and Community Care Act outlined an extended rolefor volunteers and voluntary organizations in the provisionof services for disabled adults and older people. In broad terms,the Act assumed an untapped pool of volunteers, ready to contributeat little additional cost to the provision of care. More recentpolicy developments, including Millennium Volunteers (ScottishOffice 1997) have made similar assumptions. For organizationswhich involve volunteers, the expectations of their increaseduse in service provision present considerable challenges, notleast in attracting new recruits and retaining existing volunteers.The research presented in this paper builds on previous workto explore the current practice and organization of volunteeringand to examine critically how far the reality matches the politicalrhetoric about the role of volunteers in the mixed economy ofcare. The paper begins with a critical review of recent policyand practice in volunteering to set the context which providedour key questions. The research methodology is briefly describedand the findings from a survey of 117 active volunteers workingwith adults with learning difficulties, mental health problemsand physical disabilities, and with older people in the Northof Scotland are presented. The research examines the demographyand personality profiles of the volunteers. It examines theirperceptions of volunteering as these relate to motivation, recruitment,selection, training, support, rewards and reasons for leaving.Finally, it examines volunteers' perceptions of the organizationof volunteering. The results are reviewed in relation to thepolicy assumptions about volunteering in the mixed economy ofcare.     

Book reviews

Theory and Society -     

A Content Analysis of Violence in American War Movies

In a content analysis of movie violence, we randomly selected twelve top-grossing American war films from four decades (1970 to 2002). We coded for implements of violence, length of violence, gore, and violence directed at noncombatants. We hypothesized that recently released war movies would be more violent than those released earlier. We found that films released since 1990 did contain more violence compared to others. Further, the intensity of gore increased in recently released movies.     

Characterizing Environmental Harm: Developments in an Approach to Strategic Risk Assessment and Risk Management

Environmental policymakers and regulators are often in the position of having to prioritize their actions across a diverse range of environmental pressures to secure environmental protection and improvements. Information on environmental issues to inform this type of strategic analysis can be disparate; it may be too voluminous or even absent. Data on a range of issues are rarely presented in a common format that allows easy analysis and comparison. Nevertheless, judgments are required on the significance of various environmental pressures and on the inherent uncertainties to inform strategic assessments such as “state of the environment” reports. How can decisionmakers go about this type of strategic and comparative risk analysis? In an attempt to provide practical tools for the analysis of environmental risks at a strategic level, the Environment Agency of England and Wales has conducted a program of developmental research on strategic risk assessment since 1996. The tools developed under this program use the concept of “environmental harm” as a common metric, viewed from technical, social, and economic perspectives, to analyze impacts from a range of environmental pressures. Critical to an informed debate on the relative importance of these perspectives is an understanding and analysis of the various characteristics of harm (spatial and temporal extent, reversibility, latency, etc.) and of the social response to actual or potential environmental harm from a range of hazards. Recent developments in our approach, described herein, allow a presentation of the analysis in a structured fashion so as to better inform risk‐management decisions.     

Examination of variable errors of measurement in a survey-based social indicator

The sample survey, involving the use of specially developed questionnaires and instruments, is an important source of data regarding individual experiences and social-psychological characteristics for use in social indicator research. Variable errors of measurement are often given only cursory attention in presentations of survey sampling and social indicator theory and in the analysis of such data. These errors may, however, result in reduced precision of estimates and may affect statistical inferences drawn from the data. Some procedures for assessing the extent of variable measurement error are described and examples of their use in evaluating a survey instrument and data collected are discussed.     

On the decomposition of changes in expectation of life and differentials in life expectancy

The projection of mortality rates requires inter alia close examination of the mortality experience of a population over a long period of time and will usually also involve the analysis of mortality trends by cause of death. In two of the more important recent contributions, techniques were devised for explaining change in life expectancy in terms of mortality changes in particular age groups and by different causes of death. The approaches adopted by the authors differ, and the purpose of this article is to reconcile the two and tie the results in with those obtained by earlier writers. A new method for explaining the change in a life expectancy differential in terms of the observed changes in the mortality differentials and the observed change in overall mortality level is also described.