人民币到底被低估了多少?

人民币汇率是近年来国际关注的焦点.本文借助乔翰森(Johansen)协整分析框架,运用行为均衡汇率(BEER)模型和恒久均衡汇率(PEER)模型,探究了人民币实际汇率和名义汇率的均衡水平.论文认为,人民币汇率的确被低估,但幅度最高不超过15%;渐进的"两步走"改革战略是中国推进固定汇率制转向弹性浮动汇率制的最佳选择.     

Utilization and limitations of the American College Health Association's National College Health Assessment instrument: A systematic review

ABSTRACT

Objective: To analyze the literature in which researchers have utilized the National College Health Assessment (NCHA) I or the NCHA II. Participants and Methods: The authors selected peer-reviewed articles published between 2004 and July 2013 utilizing a single search term: National College Health Assessment. Articles were assessed for instrument use, limitations, and data analyses. Results: The search resulted in 72 articles for inclusion. Researchers used the instrument to either conduct a primary investigation or utilize reference group data for secondary analysis. Researchers used many data analyses, statistical tests, techniques, and methods. Limitations of the instrument were consistently mentioned by researchers. Conclusions: Results indicate limitations in the NCHA. To ensure college health professionals are gaining the best information possible regarding students on their campuses, specific improvements to the NCHA are recommended.     

A Tale of Political Trust in American Cities

This study performs a multilevel analysis of public trust inlocal government. We develop and test competing hypotheses aboutthe contextual and individual-level sources of local politicaltrust. The results show that citizens’ trust in localgovernment is shaped not only by individual-level factors butalso by city-level factors such as income inequality, ideologicalpolarization, political institutions, racial fractionalization,and size of population. Cross-level analysis further indicatesthat the effects of race on local political trust are conditionedby cities’ systems of political representation.     

Everyday Life in the Suburbs of Berlin: Consequences for the Social Participation of Aged Men and Women

Against the background of demographic change, mobility issues are becoming crucial. Especially for the elderly, daily outdoor activities are essential for participation in social life. This article addresses the question of what extent older people, especially women, are threatened by limited social participation in Berlin’s suburbia. The mobility of older women (70+) is characterized by the least number of trips, the shortest distances, and more than 50% walking trips. Besides, many older women are dissatisfied with their residential area. Given the lack of essential facilities, older women have to be considered as disadvantaged in terms of limited social participation.     

Aggregation of Oscillating Subsystems

In previous work, the analysis of the effects of aggregating simple dynamic systems has been studied by applying methods developed for thermodynamic systems in order to take account of stochastic effects. This approach is based on the Master Equation for the probability density of the contents of a vector of system levels. The goal of these studies is to determine the dynamic characteristics of systems composed of a population of sub-systems with the same dynamic structure while accounting for novel behavior that is introduced by the process of aggregating the sub-systems into the larger system.     

Third generation information systems: integrating costs and outcomes. Tools for professional development and program evaluation

The authors present specific procedures for obtaining cost per closed case and a case outcome rating for each closed case, computer generated, yielding a cost-outcome report for single cases and aggregated cases. The procedures are illustrated with field data from an alcohol and drug addiction service. Cost per closed case is seen as the new unit cost datum. Combined with case outcome information, the cost-outcome report is seen as a promising new measure of efficiency. The potential of the cost-outcome report as a new basis for professional self-development, increased treatment effectiveness, and program evaluation is discussed.     

Media labeling versus the US disability community identity: a study of shifting cultural language

This study examines disability terminology to explore how the news media frame cultural representations of the disability community. More specifically, the paper examines the impact of the Americans with Disabilities Act on journalist's language choices about disability topics. A content analysis of news stories using disability terms in The Washington Post and The New York Times during the past decade was conducted. The paper illustrates that disability community identity continues to be formed, transformed and maintained through news media presentations of disability terminology. The paper argues that the US Disability Rights Movement had some success during the 1990s in putting forth language that advances its aims, though the study also suggests that some journalists continue to use terms that perpetuate limiting, narrow stereotypes about people with disabilities.     

The origins and consequences of public trust in government: a time series analysis

The study of citizens' trust in the national government has been primarily individual-level, cross-sectional analysis. In the current research, we develop a quarterly time series measure of trust in the U.S. national government from 1980 to 1997 and conduct the first multivariate time series examination of public trust in government. We find that negative perceptions of the economy, scandals associated with Congress, and increasing public concern about crime each lead to declining public trust in government. Declining trust in government in turn leads to less positive evaluations of Congress and reduced support for government action to address a range of domestic policy concerns. These results provide new evidence of the influence of public concern about crime and the centrality of Congress in understanding public evaluations of the national government and new evidence of how declining levels of trust in government may influence elections and domestic policy making.