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1.
CAN THE PRESIDENT REALLY AFFECT ECONOMIC GROWTH? PRESIDENTIAL EFFORT AND THE POLITICAL BUSINESS CYCLE
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Presidential elections are often seen as referendums on the health of the economy; however, little evidence exists on the president's ability to influence gross domestic product (GDP). This study examines the effect of the incentive to be reelected and the resulting increase in presidential effort on GDP growth. Growth is found to rise in reelection years for first‐term presidents after 1932 and to fall in election years before 1932, when reelection was uncommon, and for second‐term presidents generally. This effect is largest for high‐quality presidents—who probably have the highest return to effort—and is spread across multiple sectors of the economy. (JEL D78, D72, E32, J24) 相似文献
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Michael S. Rendall Ryan Admiraal Alessandra DeRose Paola DiGiulio Mark S. Handcock Filomena Racioppi 《Statistical Methods and Applications》2008,17(4):519-539
In non-experimental research, data on the same population process may be collected simultaneously by more than one instrument.
For example, in the present application, two sample surveys and a population birth registration system all collect observations
on first births by age and year, while the two surveys additionally collect information on women’s education. To make maximum
use of the three data sources, the survey data are pooled and the population data introduced as constraints in a logistic
regression equation. Reductions in standard errors about the age and birth-cohort parameters of the regression equation in
the order of three-quarters are obtained by introducing the population data as constraints. A halving of the standard errors
about the education parameters is achieved by pooling observations from the larger survey dataset with those from the smaller
survey. The percentage reduction in the standard errors through imposing population constraints is independent of the total
survey sample size. 相似文献
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On the basis of discussion and analysis during and following an ATSDR science panel on the bioavailability of mercury in soils, it is apparent that the default assumption of 100% relative bioavailability for mercury-contaminated soils is excessively conservative. However, current knowledge does not allow the development of default assumptions or guidelines for determining relative bioavailability of mercury in soils. Until such default assumptions or guidelines can be developed, site-specific assays of bioavailability, preferably using either animal bioassays or validated in vitro techniques, may provide the best approach for estimating soil-mercury bioavailability. 相似文献
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Theory and Decision - We examine collective decision-making in a jury voting game under the unanimity rule when voters have ambiguous beliefs. Unlike in existing studies (Ellis in Theoretical... 相似文献
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Eschmann Rob Gryder Ryan W. Connaught Gerri Zhao Xiang Jeon Sae-Mi Gonzales Ernest 《Clinical Social Work Journal》2022,50(3):242-255
Clinical Social Work Journal - Experiences with more subtle racism – which have been called microaggressions – have a host of negative effects on health, mental health, educational... 相似文献