TAX-RATE UNCERTAINTY, FACTOR SUPPLIES, AND WELFARE

Uncertainty about prospective changes in tax rates may increase factor supplies, and hence the tax base, permitting a reduction in tax rates that could result in a net increase in welfare. Under empirically relevant assumptions about attitudes towards risk we find that when an individual exclusively saves or works, the tax base rises in response to greater tax-rate uncertainty, so that welfare could indeed increase. However, when an individual both saves and works, the supply of the randomly taxed factor declines with increased uncertainty, implying that tax revenue and welfare decrease when the nonrandom tax rate is sufficiently low.     

Banks,Insurance Companies,and Discrimination1

This article examines some of the reasons why banks and insurance companies have been accused of discrimination, and shows that this is by and large a false accusation. Economic analysis demonstrates that racial discrimination is not a profit‐maximizing strategy. Actually, unwise public policies are actually precluding many consumers from the market.     

Optimal Incentive Contracting with Ex Ante and Ex Post Moral Hazards: Theory and Evidence

Predictions concerning structure and performance for managerial incentive contracts designed to prevent accidents are developed and tested. The model predicts a step-function penalty with more costly, more reliable audits used for higher loss reports to control ex post exaggeration of the loss. In addition, the penalty induces nonreporting that is imperfectly controlled through random audits. An empirical contract implemented to control workers' compensation medical losses provides evidence consistent with these predictions. The contract reduces both accident frequency and total losses, but increases reported loss severity as managers evade approximately 40% of the accident penalty by underreporting small losses.     

TAX RATES AND LABOR SUPPLY IN FISCAL EQUILIBRIUM

A central tenet of supply-side economics is that a balanced-budget reduction in the marginal tax rate on wage income increases aggregate labor supply. In contrast, the orthodox Keynesian analysis concludes that the relationship between tax rates and the economy-wide supply of labor is theoretically ambiguous. Our analysis of a general model reveals that these two propositions are associated, respectively, with the special assumptions of "compensated independence" and "ordinary independence" between leisure and public spending.     

PRICE LEVEL UNCERTAINTY, SAVING, AND LABOR SUPPLY

This paper derives the implications, for individual saving and labor supply, of increased uncertainty about the future price level. The framework for the analysis is a two-period model in which saving and labor supply are alternative sources of both present disutility and future income. The individual is assumed to make simultaneously his saving and labor supply decisions prior to the resolution of the uncertainty about the future price level. We find that, under theoretically plausible and empirically relevant assumptions about attitudes toward risk, an increase in future price level uncertainty increases individual saving and labor supply. These results imply that, for the economy as a whole, increased uncertainty about the future price level increases output and employment, while decreasing the real rate of interest, the present price level, and economic welfare.