Dynamic Reflections of Crimes,Quasi Democracy and Misery Index in Pakistan

Massive increase in crimes has coexisted with rising inflation and high unemployment for the last couple of decades especially during democratic governments in Pakistan. In this paper, we explore the relationship between crime rate, misery index and democracy in Pakistan from 1975 to 2013. Granger causality test proposed the unidirectional causality running from misery index to crime rate in Pakistan. Estimating the crime function via Pasaran’s conditional error correction model, we found the significant long run equilibrium relationship between Okun’s misery index and crime rate which implies that rising inflation and unemployment rate are the major driving forces towards increasing crime rates in Pakistan. Finally, empirical evidence from Okun’s misery index suggested that people are three times more miserable in quasi democratic periods than that of dictatorship. The Barrow’s misery index model verifies that people are twice worsening in quasi democratic periods. Likewise, reported crimes are nearly twice during quasi democracy than quasi dictatorship. The crime model provided the evidence that people during quasi democratic governments are more likely tending towards crime as compared to quasi dictatorship during the study period in Pakistan. This implicitly advocates the fact that half hearted efforts and ill structured apparatus of democracy can augment the tendency of crime and misery rather than solution of such concerns of the economy.     

Exploring the Predictors of Organizational Preparedness for Natural Disasters

There is an extensive body of research on the determinants of disaster preparedness at the individual and household levels. The same cannot be said for the organizational level. Hence, the purpose of this study is to shed light on the predictors of organizational preparedness for natural disasters. Since leaders of organizations have an incentive to overstate their level of preparedness and because surveys of organizational leaders suffer from selection bias and low response rates, we take the novel approach of interviewing employees about the organizations that employ them. Using an online survey, we collected information from a national sample of 2,008 U.S. employees and estimated the predictors of preparedness at the organizational level. We find, among other results, that organization size (facility level) is a consistent predictor of preparedness at the organizational level. We conclude with policy recommendations and outline an agenda for future research on organizational preparedness for natural disasters.     

Comparing the Explanatory and Predictive Power of Intention-Based Theories of Personal Monetary Donation to Charitable Organizations

The theory of reasoned action (TRA) and the theory of planned behavior (TPB) have been found to have predictive capability in a wide range of personal behaviors. The aim of the study is twofold: firstly, to assess the applicability of the TRA, the TPB, and a newly developed revised version of the TPB in the context of individuals’ monetary donations to charitable organizations; and secondly, to compare the explanatory and predictive power of these three theoretical models. Data relating to intention to give monetary donation, attitudes toward helping others and toward charitable giving, social norms, moral responsibility, and perceived behavioral control were collected in the first phase of the study by means of a self-completion mail questionnaire distributed to 432 residents of Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. In the second phase, 1 month later, telephone interviews were conducted with 221 of the first-phase respondents who had agreed to take part in a follow-up survey of their actual monetary-donating behavior. The findings show that the revised TPB is the best of the three models for predicting individuals’ intention to donate and their future monetary-donation behavior, mainly because moral responsibility is included in the theoretical framework. It thus offers superior explanatory and predictive power.     

Poverty assessment as a multidimensional socio-economic concept: the case of the Rawalpindi region in Pakistan

The definition on poverty has progressed into a multidimensional concept focusing more on socio-economic dimensions than being a mere measure of financial deprivation. Corresponding to this advancement, this study investigated the incidence of multidimensional poverty (MDP) in the Rawalpindi region of Pakistan, taking into account three dimensions, i.e. education, health and housing. Findings revealed an inconsistent declining trend of MDP over time. This inconsistency was mainly attributed to observed fluctuations in deprivation levels of education, health and housing in the region. Over time, education deprivation showed a significant net increase. Notably, the magnitude of MDP in rural areas was higher than in urban areas.     

Decision Making Under Uncertainty—An Example for Seismic Risk Management

Decision-making techniques are used to select the "best" alternatives under multiple and often conflicting criteria. Multicriteria decision making (MCDM) necessitates to incorporate uncertainties in the decision-making process. The major thrust of this article is to extend the framework proposed by Yager^{( 1 )} for multiple decisionmakers and fuzzy utilities (payoffs). In addition, the concept of expert credibility factor is introduced. The proposed approach is demonstrated for an example of seismic risk management using a heuristic hierarchical structure. A step-by-step formulation of the proposed approach is illustrated using a hypothetical example and a three-story reinforced concrete building.     

Subsea Release of Oil from a Riser: An Ecological Risk Assessment

This study illustrates a newly developed methodology, as a part of the U.S. EPA ecological risk assessment (ERA) framework, to predict exposure concentrations in a marine environment due to underwater release of oil and gas. It combines the hydrodynamics of underwater blowout, weathering algorithms, and multimedia fate and transport to measure the exposure concentration. Naphthalene and methane are used as surrogate compounds for oil and gas, respectively. Uncertainties are accounted for in multimedia input parameters in the analysis. The 95th percentile of the exposure concentration (EC_95%) is taken as the representative exposure concentration for the risk estimation. A bootstrapping method is utilized to characterize EC_95% and associated uncertainty. The toxicity data of 19 species available in the literature are used to calculate the 5th percentile of the predicted no observed effect concentration (PNEC_5%) by employing the bootstrapping method. The risk is characterized by transforming the risk quotient (RQ), which is the ratio of EC_95% to PNEC_5%, into a cumulative risk distribution. This article describes a probabilistic basis for the ERA, which is essential from risk management and decision‐making viewpoints. Two case studies of underwater oil and gas mixture release, and oil release with no gaseous mixture are used to show the systematic implementation of the methodology, elements of ERA, and the probabilistic method in assessing and characterizing the risk.     

Distribution of Arsenic and Copper in Sediment Pore Water: An Ecological Risk Assessment Case Study for Offshore Drilling Waste Discharges

Due to the hydrophobic nature of synthetic based fluids (SBFs), drilling cuttings are not very dispersive in the water column and settle down close to the disposal site. Arsenic and copper are two important toxic heavy metals, among others, found in the drilling waste. In this article, the concentrations of heavy metals are determined using a steady state "aquivalence-based" fate model in a probabilistic mode. Monte Carlo simulations are employed to determine pore water concentrations. A hypothetical case study is used to determine the water quality impacts for two discharge options: 4% and 10% attached SBFs, which correspond to the best available technology option and the current discharge practice in the U.S. offshore. The exposure concentration ( C_E ) is a predicted environmental concentration, which is adjusted for exposure probability and bioavailable fraction of heavy metals. The response of the ecosystem  ( R_E )  is defined by developing an empirical distribution function of predicted no-effect concentration. The pollutants' pore water concentrations within the radius of 750 m are estimated and cumulative distributions of risk quotient  ( RQ = C_E / R_E )  are developed to determine the probability of RQ greater than 1.     

Water Quality Failures in Distribution Networks—Risk Analysis Using Fuzzy Logic and Evidential Reasoning

The evaluation of the risk of water quality failures in a distribution network is a challenging task given that much of the available data are highly uncertain and vague, and many of the mechanisms are not fully understood. Consequently, a systematic approach is required to handle quantitative-qualitative data as well as a means to update existing information when new knowledge and data become available. Five general pathways (mechanisms) through which a water quality failure can occur in the distribution network are identified in this article. These include contaminant intrusion, leaching and corrosion, biofilm formation and microbial regrowth, permeation, and water treatment breakthrough (including disinfection byproducts formation). The proposed methodology is demonstrated using a simplified example for water quality failures in a distribution network. This article builds upon the previous developments of aggregative risk analysis approach. Each basic risk item in a hierarchical framework is expressed by a triangular fuzzy number, which is derived from the composition of the likelihood of a failure event and the associated failure consequence . An analytic hierarchy process is used to estimate weights required for grouping noncommensurate risk sources. The evidential reasoning is proposed to incorporate newly arrived data for the updating of existing risk estimates. The exponential ordered weighted averaging operators are used for defuzzification to incorporate attitudinal dimension for risk management. It is envisaged that the proposed approach could serve as a basis to benchmark acceptable risks in water distribution networks.