Beyond tail median and conditional tail expectation: Extreme risk estimation using tail Lp-optimization

The conditional tail expectation (CTE) is an indicator of tail behavior that takes into account both the frequency and magnitude of a tail event. However, the asymptotic normality of its empirical estimator requires that the underlying distribution possess a finite variance; this can be a strong restriction in actuarial and financial applications. A valuable alternative is the median shortfall (MS), although it only gives information about the frequency of a tail event. We construct a class of tail L^p-medians encompassing the MS and CTE. For p in (1,2), a tail L^p-median depends on both the frequency and magnitude of tail events, and its empirical estimator is, within the range of the data, asymptotically normal under a condition weaker than a finite variance. We extrapolate this estimator and another technique to extreme levels using the heavy-tailed framework. The estimators are showcased on a simulation study and on real fire insurance data.     

Toddlers Help Anonymously

Young children are extremely motivated to help others, but it is not clear whether they do so in anonymous situations without social recognition. In two studies, we found that 18‐month‐old toddlers provided help equally in situations where an adult recipient was present and in situations where an adult recipient was not present. We included several control conditions to rule out that toddlers were simply unaware of their anonymity or were merely motivated to restore the physical order of things. Together, these findings suggest that early in ontogeny children are motivated to help others in need regardless of whether they can immediately be recognized for their prosocial intentions.     

Adult Sexual Outcomes of Child Sexual Abuse Vary According to Relationship Status

This study tested a moderation model in which the association between child sexual abuse severity and negative sexual outcomes (i.e., sexual avoidance and compulsivity) differed as a function of relationships status (i.e., single, cohabiting, and married individuals). A sample of 1,033 adults completed self‐report questionnaires online, and 21.5% reported childhood sexual abuse. Path analyses indicated that child sexual abuse severity was associated with higher sexual compulsivity in single individuals, both higher sexual avoidance and compulsivity in cohabiting individuals, and higher sexual avoidance in married individuals. The moderation model was invariant across men and women. These results suggest that the time course of negative sexual outcomes associated with child sexual abuse may follow distinct patterns of expression according to relationship status.     

Emotional Transactions in the Paris Subway: Combining Naturalistic Videotaping,Objective Facial Coding and Sequential Analysis in the Study of Nonverbal Emotional Behavior

We report on what, to our knowledge, represents the first study of nonverbal emotional behavior in crowded public places combining naturalistic videotaping of situated activity, objective coding of facial movement, and sequential analysis of behavior. In the first part of the study we argue that passengers do not lose emotional sensitivity to physical contact as density (passengers per square meter) increases, which indicates that physical contact is experienced as a territorial intrusion regardless of crowdedness. In the second part of the study, we suggest that passengers resolve the emotions due to intrusive physical contacts through two interactional strategies involving facial movements usually interpreted as “expressions of emotions.” Since proxemic violations seem to represent a pervasive emotion elicitor, the protocol can be extended to other means of transportation and replicated in other locations. We conclude that the methodology provides an effective tool for theory-building in the study of nonverbal emotional behavior.     

Reporting Errors in Siblings’ Survival Histories and Their Impact on Adult Mortality Estimates: Results From a Record Linkage Study in Senegal

Estimates of adult mortality in countries with limited vital registration (e.g., sub-Saharan Africa) are often derived from information about the survival of a respondent’s siblings. We evaluated the completeness and accuracy of such data through a record linkage study conducted in Bandafassi, located in southeastern Senegal. We linked at the individual level retrospective siblings’ survival histories (SSH) reported by female respondents (n = 268) to prospective mortality data and genealogies collected through a health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS). Respondents often reported inaccurate lists of siblings. Additions to these lists were uncommon, but omissions were frequent: respondents omitted 3.8 % of their live sisters, 9.1 % of their deceased sisters, and 16.6 % of their sisters who had migrated out of the DSS area. Respondents underestimated the age at death of the siblings they reported during the interview, particularly among siblings who had died at older ages (≥45 years). Restricting SSH data to person-years and events having occurred during a recent reference period reduced list errors but not age and date errors. Overall, SSH data led to a 20 % underestimate of ₄₅ q ₁₅ relative to HDSS data. Our study suggests new quality improvement strategies for SSH data and demonstrates the potential use of HDSS data for the validation of “unconventional” demographic techniques.     

Die Bedeutung der Zinsschranke

The German Corporate Tax Reform Act of 2008 requires an adjustment of classic valuation concepts because it limits interest deduction from taxable income depending on the operating performance of the company. By using time- and state-contingent discount rates in a risk-neutral valuation with predetermined debt levels, a theoretically sound valuation result is obtained. However, a modified APV-concept which assumes deterministic debt over the planning horizon and constant leverage in the terminal value phase also yields consistent valuation results when two types of tax shields with different levels of risk are distinguished.     

缺少的分享——喜马拉雅东部(中国云南西北部)作为“整体社会事实”的分享的仪式语言

中华人民共和国成立以前,云南西北部怒江、独龙江流域居住的独龙族、怒族等邻近族群之间存在着一种共通的"议式语言".这种仪式语言通过宗教祭祀活动以及分享杀牲后的肉食过程体现出来.在这一地域社会中,各种社会、政治和经济关系都依赖于这种仪式语言展开.虽然目前这种分享的仪式日渐式微,但分享的意识依然体现着族群内部的"社会结合"方式.通过独龙族仪式语言的个案分析,旨在与利奇关于克钦社会的"仪式语言"研究进行对话.     

Evidence that Two‐Year‐Old Children are Sensitive to Information Presented in Arguments

Preschoolers are more likely to endorse testimony supported by strong arguments than by weak, circular ones. Two‐year‐olds exchange arguments with others, but no experiment has demonstrated that they are sensitive to information presented as argument. In the first phase of this study, 2‐year‐olds were shown ambiguous pictures—for instance a bird–fish hybrid—and asked what they thought the picture represented. An informant then contradicted them, providing either a strong argument, a circular argument, or no argument, and the children were asked what they now thought the hybrid was. The second phase was identical to the first, with new hybrids, except that the informant never provided any argument for her position. Finally, in the third phase, the informant left the room and the children were asked again to tell what the hybrids from the first two phases were. On the whole, there was an effect of the amount of information provided in the argument so that children were more likely to endorse labels provided by the informant who had supported her answer with a strong argument in the first phase. Moreover, they generalized the trust granted to informants who provided strong arguments. These results constitute the first experimental demonstration that 2‐year‐olds possess some argument evaluation skills.     

Individual Uncertainty About Longevity

This article presents an assessment of individual uncertainty about longevity. A survey performed on 3,331 French people enables us to record several survival probabilities per individual. On this basis, we compute subjective life expectancies (SLE) and subjective uncertainty regarding longevity (SUL), the standard deviation of each individual’s subjective distribution of her or his own longevity. It is large and equal to more than 10 years for men and women. Its magnitude is comparable to the variability of longevity observed in life tables for individuals under 60, but it is smaller for those older than 60, which suggests use of private information by older respondents. Our econometric analysis confirms that individuals use private information—mainly their parents’ survival and longevity—to adjust their level of uncertainty. Finally, we find that SUL has a sizable impact, in addition to SLE, on risky behaviors: more uncertainty on longevity significantly decreases the probability of unhealthy lifestyles. Given that individual uncertainty about longevity affects prevention behavior, retirement decisions, and demand for long-term care insurance, these results have important implications for public policy concerning health care and retirement.     

Life Course Changes in Smoking by Gender and Education: A Cohort Comparison Across France and the United States

Widening of educational disparities and a narrowing female advantage in mortality stem in good part from disparities in smoking. The changes in smoking and mortality disparities across cohorts and countries have been explained by an epidemic model of cigarette use but are also related to life course changes. To better describe and understand changing disparities over the life course, we compare age patterns of smoking in three cohorts and two nations (France and the US) using smoking history measures from the 2010 French health barometer (N = 20,940) and the 2010 US National Health Interview Survey Sample Adult File (N = 20,444). The results demonstrate statistically significant widening of gender and educational differences from adolescence to early and middle adulthood, thus accentuating the disparities already emerging during adolescence. In addition, the widening disparities over the life course have been changing across cohorts: age differences in educational disparities have grown in recent cohorts (especially in France), while age differences in gender disparities have narrowed. The findings highlight the multiple sources of inequality in smoking and health in high-income nations.