A new long-term survival model with dispersion induced by discrete frailty

Lifetime Data Analysis - Frailty models are generally used to model heterogeneity between the individuals. The distribution of the frailty variable is often assumed to be continuous. However, there...     

Die politisierte Sozialstruktur als mittelfristig stabile Basis einer deutschen Normalwahl

A normal vote is a hypothetical election result following exclusively from predispositions of voters towards political parties which result from long-term or middle-term influences. The influence of short-term factors like attractive candidates or issues from the recent campaign have to be eliminated within the abstract model. As an operationalization for German Bundestag elections for this purpose the average vote intentions of population groups are used which are part of the politicized German social structures such as catholics, especially when they attend church frequently, or employees (Arbeitnehmer) and union members who have formed enduring coalitions with a political party. This operationalization is compared with a model originally developed for the United States. According to this model, the long-term factor is measured by party identification. All Bundestag elections of the Kohl era are analyzed, for which the Politbarometer surveys of the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, Mannheim, immediately before the Bundestag elections are used as a data basis. The vote intentions which can be derived from the politicized social structure are shown to be a stabile basis for a German normal vote so that it makes sense to compute normal vote results from 1983 to 1998.     

朝鲜洪大容《乾净会友录》与清代文人

燕行录是研究前近代中韩关系的重要史料,其中18世纪朝鲜文人洪大容所著《乾净笔谭》的价值尤为贵重。洪大容于1765年随朝鲜使节团来到北京,与数名中国文人进行笔谈,回国后将这一经历写成《乾净衕会友录》,两年之后改编为《乾净笔谭》,主要内容均为笔谈记录。前后两个版本之间进行的删改修订,反映出当时两国文人在不同的大环境下有着政治、学术、女性观等认知上的差异。     

A Bayesian approach for zero-modified Skellam model with Hamiltonian MCMC

Statistical Methods & Applications - In this paper is presented the zero-modified poisson difference and present possible applications of them in the analysis of paired count data. The...     

Challenges of implementing restorative justice for intimate partner violence: An Islamic perspective

ABSTRACT

Intimate partner violence (IPV) is currently recognized as a critical public health concern and a human rights issue. Not surprisingly, Muslims – a religiously and socio-culturally diverse faith-based populace – are not an exception. To address this complex area of criminal justice and social policy, some scholars advocate implementing restorative justice (RJ) approaches. While RJ approaches have been traditionally used in Islamic cultures for conflict resolutions, to date, few studies have investigated how RJ operates in dealing with IPV in Muslim countries and communities. This article explores how RJ approaches towards IPV operate in some Muslim countries/communities, and offers insights into developing culturally and religiously appropriate ways of implementing RJ in IPV situations among Muslims. Given the prevalence of IPV among Muslims, the question is particularly important and timely. Taking exclusively limited examples of RJ approaches that have been used to mediate IPV cases in Muslim countries and communities, this paper found one significant challenge in the RJ approaches among Muslims: community acceptance of IPV. To reduce IPV in Muslim society, it is necessary to develop treatment models and techniques that meet cultural and religious needs. This paper found that since RJ is not alien to Islamic teachings, RJ approaches can be implemented effectively in dealing with IPV among Muslims by ensuring justice and equity of the abused woman. The findings of this paper will assist policymakers, practitioners, and service providers in providing religiously and culturally appropriate care when addressing IPV issues among Muslims.     

UNDERSTANDING THE COSTS OF CONSUMER DURABLE ADJUSTMENTS

This article examines whether adjustment frictions help account for the patterns of household consumption expenditures observed in the Consumer Expenditure Survey, namely, that the variance of log durable expenditure is four times larger than that of log nondurable expenditure for annual data and this gap substantially widens for quarterly data. Estimating a structural model of household consumption with nondurable and durable goods with the simulated method of moments, I find that the fixed costs associated with durable adjustments are important in matching the cross‐sectional moments. Using the estimated model, I also examine the response of nondurable and durable expenditures to income shocks. (JEL D12, D91, E21)     

康定市吉居藏语所属问题

本文针对分布在四川甘孜州康定市吉居乡的藏族语言进行分析。吉居话的语言所属在以往研究里没有共识,有属于扎巴语的意见和属于康巴藏语的意见。通过与藏文的对比,可见该语言为一个属于康巴藏语崩波岗方言群的土话,并非木雅语或扎巴语。基于与吉居话周边土话的比较,我们提出吉居话属于崩波岗方言群雅砻江组的假设性结论。本文的分析方法亦能作为识别康巴藏语中方言所属的参考。     

A general long-term aging model with different underlying activation mechanisms: Modeling,Bayesian estimation,and case influence diagnostics

In this paper we propose a general cure rate aging model. Our approach enables different underlying activation mechanisms which lead to the event of interest. The number of competing causes of the event of interest is assumed to follow a logarithmic distribution. The model is parameterized in terms of the cured fraction which is then linked to covariates. We explore the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to develop a Bayesian analysis for the proposed model. Moreover, some discussions on the model selection to compare the fitted models are given, as well as case deletion influence diagnostics are developed for the joint posterior distribution based on the ψ-divergence, which has several divergence measures as particular cases, such as the Kullback–Leibler (K-L), J-distance, L₁ norm, and χ²-square divergence measures. Simulation studies are performed and experimental results are illustrated based on a real malignant melanoma data.     

论法的效力——以拉德布鲁赫的哲学效力论为中心

个人的良心,在许多情况下,与牺牲自己对法的确信相比,更不容易违反实在法,但也可能有良心拒绝服从的“邪恶的法”。——拉德布鲁赫一、问题的所在在拉德布鲁赫法哲学的方法论中,急待解决的重大问题之一是“法的效力”(Rechtsgeltung)问题。这一问题位于其主要著作《法哲学》的第十章。拉德布鲁赫在这一问题中尝试了“规范的”法理念的现实化,即认为法的理想与现实、约束性与实效性,在同时有效这一点上,才能够相互结合。因此,拉德布鲁赫把按照耶利内克(G.Jellinek,1851-1911)的公式所提示的对“法的效力”的疑问,作为“事实上的规范性”加…