Risk Analysis: Celebrating the Accomplishments and Embracing Ongoing Challenges

As part of the celebration of the 40th anniversary of the Society for Risk Analysis and Risk Analysis: An International Journal, this essay reviews the 10 most important accomplishments of risk analysis from 1980 to 2010, outlines major accomplishments in three major categories from 2011 to 2019, discusses how editors circulate authors’ accomplishments, and proposes 10 major risk-related challenges for 2020–2030. Authors conclude that the next decade will severely test the field of risk analysis.     

The PALS parenting support programme: lessons learned from the evaluation of processes and outcomes

Although there has recently been a rise in parenting support programmes within the UK, only a minority of these programmes have benefited from evaluation of either outcomes or processes. This paper describes the development of the PALS programme (Parents Altogether Lending Support), reporting both on its effectiveness in improving parents' interactions with their children and on the lessons that were learned about embedding such a programme within the local community. Over the 18‐month period of the programme, a total of 17 courses were run, with 75 parents and carers (primarily mothers) participating in the programme overall. Evaluation results indicated that participants enjoyed the course and found it beneficial, particularly in terms of altering their own actions in specific ways that were able to promote better behaviour on the part of their children. Participants also valued the opportunity to share their experiences with other parents. The key lesson identified in regard to the development of parenting programmes concerned the need for the community to feel a sense of ownership for the initiative. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Farm Crisis and Mental Health: A Longitudinal Study of the 1980s1

Abstract This paper examines rural/urban differences and trends in mental health during the farm crisis of the 1980s in a large panel sample from a midwestern state. A community research perspective, which attributes differences to life styles, culture, and community context, is contrasted with an economic stress perspective, which focuses on individual differences in economic circumstances as determinants of rural-urban differences in mental health. Survey samples from 1981, 1986, and 1989 are used to examine differences among seven categories of community type. Multiple regression analysis of the trend and panel data provide support for both the individual economic distress and community context models.     

Local dependence estimation using semiparametric archimedean copulas

The authors define a new semiparametric Archimedean copula family which has a flexible dependence structure. The generator of the family is a local interpolation of existing generators. It has locally‐defined dependence parameters. The authors present a penalized constrained least‐squares method to estimate and smooth these parameters. They illustrate the flexibility of their dependence model in a bi‐variate survival example.     

Prehistoric landscapes of the sonoran desert Hohokam

The Hohokam of southern Arizona are noted for greater duration of settlement than other major agricultural traditions in the archaeological record of the southwestern United States, including the Anasazi and Mogollon. The 40,000 square mile area inhabited by the Hohokam is marked by low elevation desert basins, but encompasses a range of topographic and climatic variability that shaped opportunities for prehistoric farming technologies. Irrigation from rivers was frequently associated with the longterm persistence of individual sites, while floodwater farming along ephemeral drainages was more often correlated with continuous occupation of hydrologically favored zones. Renewal of fields by waterborne nutrients and efficient practices in the use of natural resources countered the limited mobility options afforded by the Hohokam environment.In spite of a restrictive agricultural setting and an essentially static suite of productive technologies over many centuries, relationships among population, settlement, and landuse were redefined in evolving social and economic configurations. An example from the Tucson Basin illustrates differentiated patterns of settlement and agriculture arising in conjunction with increased levels of population and territorial integration in the late prehistoric period. Community organization among interrelated settlements incorporated a diversity of topographic zones and agricultural technologies in this high-risk context for prehistoric cultivators.     

Assimilation vs. multiculturalism: Views from a community in France

A recent American survey of attitudes toward societal multiculturalism vs. assimilation has found surprisingly widespread support for maintaining heritage cultures not only among immigrant minority groups but also among most subsamples of majority host groups, black and white. Working-class whites are the one exception. This pilot study explores the same attitude domain in a contrasting European setting. Randomly selected samples of middle- and working-class families (a mother, father, and teenage son or daughter) from a small city in France were interviewed. As a group, they were neutral to slightly favorable to immigrants maintaining heritage cultures and languages rather than losing them through assimilation. On measures of attitudes toward specific immigrant groups, there were marked intergroup dyfferunces with Maghrebian Arabs rated leist favorably and Southeast Asians, the model immigrants, most favorably. Comparisons of subgroups of respondents who varied in terms of (a) political left-right orientation, (b) social class standing, (c) degree of religiosity, and (d) generational level provide the base for a more general discussion of cultural assimilation and multiculturalism.     

The corporate energy policy: A management planning perspective

The energy problems facing the world have been receiving increasing attention in the press and in business journals. This article examines the attitudes of 224 U.S. business executives toward the energy crisis and examines the role of a corporate energy policy in minimizing the economic impact of future energy price increases and/or shortages. A plan for a corporate energy policy is proposed.