The next forty years in public health

In this article an attempt is made to assess the major health problems of the second half of the twentieth century in developed countries, the methods appropriate to these problems, and the pattern of medical services necessary to deal with them. From an examination of mortality and morbidity trends it is suggested that the most important problems are likely to be the mortality, malformation and disability established before birth, mental illness, and the disease and disability associated with ageing. Reasons are given for doubting whether control of breeding, the method which has contributed greatly to the improvement of plants and other animals, can be expected to be effective in the case of man, and hence reliance must continue to be placed on modifications of the environment to which achievement hitherto has been entirely due. The methods likely to be significant are: an extension of measures already in use for control ofthe physical environment; discovery and application of knowledge concerning the social environment; and elaboration of more effective methods of preventing and treating disease in the individual. Profound changes will be needed in the pattern of services through which medical knowledge is applied, the most important being unification ofthe major classes ofhospitals - acute, mental and chronic; association ofthe preventive personal health services with curative services (rather than with environmental services); and the strengthening of domiciliary medical care, particularly through a new and more intimate relationship between general practitioner and hospital services.     

Misclassification of current status data

We describe a simple method for nonparametric estimation of a distribution function based on current status data where observations of current status information are subject to misclassification. Nonparametric maximum likelihood techniques lead to use of a straightforward set of adjustments to the familiar pool-adjacent-violators estimator used when misclassification is assumed absent. The methods consider alternative misclassification models and are extended to regression models for the underlying survival time. The ideas are motivated by and applied to an example on human papilloma virus (HPV) infection status of a sample of women examined in San Francisco.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE PREDICTIVE ABILITY OF ADAPTIVE FORECASTING,RE-ESTIMATION,AND RE-IDENTIFICATION USING BOX-JENKINS TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS ON QUARTERLY EARNINGS DATA

This paper assesses the predictive ability of the Box-Jenkins methodology when utilized in an on-going setting. Three procedures are utilized to update the original forecasts generated from the Box-Jenkins models: adaptive forecasting, re-estimation, and re-identification. The results indicate that constant monitoring of the structure and parameters of the time-series models are necessary through time. It appears that adaptive forecasting techniques are insufficient to update BJ time-series models when used in conjunction with quarterly earnings data. Re-estimation is recommended as each new observation becomes available. Re-identification procedures are recommended on a less frequent basis.     

Playing with materiality: an agential-realist reading of SethBling's Super Mario World code-injection

ABSTRACT

This article takes inspiration from Youtuber and software developer ‘SethBling’ and his 2016 ‘code-injection’ (Bling, 2016), in which, using only a standard Super Nintendo Entertainment System controller and in-depth knowledge of the console, he ‘injected’ and executed the code of popular mobile game Flappy Bird (Nguyen, 2013) into a running instance of Super Mario World (Miyamoto, 1990), effectively transforming one game into another through play. Drawing from this I propose a performative understanding of videogames (and software in general) to reinvigorate discussions of software's materiality. Though it is possible to contrast Wendy Chun's (2008a) suggestion that one can view software as ‘vaporous’ against Friedrich Kittler's (1995) assertion that ‘there is no software’, I propose a more holistic approach. Academics and users alike should attempt to see software as living a double-life: as simultaneously solid as it is (metaphorically) gaseous. It then becomes possible to embrace software(s) as performative examples of the entangled ‘phenomena’, suggested by Barad (2007), that produce everyday reality through quantum activity. I explore SethBling's code-injection suggesting that actions clearly reveal software's double existence as both tangible ‘thing’, locatable on magnetic memory, and as a vaporous non-entity. Accepting these propositions together, software can be understood as continuously re-emerging through shared activities. Following Barad, I conclude that this quality is not unique to software, but software – and videogames above all – are a useful tool for understanding a vision of reality that favours activity over materiality as the basis of our existence.     

Was heißt kommunikative Kompetenz im Spannungsfeld von Ost nach West?

What does communicative competence mean concerning the tension between East and West Germans? Although East and West Germany have been formaly reunified and ten years have passed the existence of different cultures cannot be denied. Trompenaars dimensions offer the possibility to make an intercultural comparison of the two cultures. I have chosen firm-cultures, individualism versus collectivism and specific versus diffuse culture. I also compare my experience as a West German lawyer in an East German administration with the results. The awareness and identification of these differences are important for more genuine recognition and acceptance of East and West Germans.     

Evidence for the use of an algorithm in resolving inconsistent and missing Indigenous status in administrative data collections

Measures of the gap in living standards, life expectancy, education, health and employment between Indigenous and non‐Indigenous Australians are primarily derived from administrative data sources. However, Indigenous identification in these data sources is affected by administrative practices, missing data, inconsistency, and error. As these factors have changed over time, assessing whether the gap between Indigenous and non‐Indigenous Australians has changed over time, based on data unadjusted for these sources of error can potentially lead to misguided conclusions. Combining administrative data on the same individuals collected from different sources provides a method by which a more consistent derived Indigenous status can be applied across all records for an individual within a linked data environment. We used the Western Australian Data Linkage system to produce derived Indigenous statuses for individuals using a range of algorithms. We found that these algorithms reduced the amount of missing data and improved within‐individual consistency. Based on these findings, we recommend our Multi‐Stage Median algorithm be used as the standard indicator of Indigenous status for any reporting based on administrative datasets when multiple datasets are available for linkage, and that algorithmic approaches also be considered for improving the quality of other demographic variables from administrative data sources.     

Empathy to action: Child and adolescent out‐group attitudes and prosocial behaviors in a setting of intergroup conflict

The paper explored how to promote constructive intergroup relations among children and young people in a context of protracted conflict. Across two studies, the Empathy–Attitudes–Action model was examined in middle childhood and adolescence. More specifically, we tested the relations among dispositional empathy, out‐group attitudes, and prosocial behaviors for youth born after the peace agreement in Northern Ireland. In one correlational (Study 1: N = 132; 6–11 years old: M = 8.42 years, SD = 1.23) and one longitudinal design (Study 2: N = 466; 14–15 years old), bootstrapped mediation analyses revealed that empathy was associated with more positive attitudes toward the conflict‐related out‐group, which in turn, was related to higher out‐group prosocial behaviors, both self‐report and concrete actions. Given that out‐group prosocial acts in a setting of intergroup conflict may serve as the antecedents for peacebuilding among children and adolescents, this study has intervention implications.     

Immigrant students and their teachers – exploring various constellations of acculturation orientations and their impact on school adjustment

ABSTRACT

The present study examined what impact various constellations of acculturation orientations of immigrant students and their teachers have on the students’ school adjustment. For this purpose, the study analysed the acculturation orientations of 1106 5th graders and their class teachers in Switzerland. Using multiple regression analysis, we found that immigrant students were more satisfied at school if their teachers had similar attitudes about cultural assimilation and cultural diversity and could, thus, be said to have congruent acculturation orientations. With respect to students’ academic self-concept, immigrant students with a minority orientation whose teachers value cultural diversity including the heritage culture of their students showed a lower academic self-concept despite matching acculturation orientations. We interpret this result as a dilemma of teachers between the endeavour to develop culturally sensitive attitudes and behaviours and the risk to create stereotype threat and its negative effects through addressing cultural differences. Furthermore, a mismatch between the students’ (bi-)national identification at school and the teacher’s perception of the student as an immigrant or a native-born student could be shown to have adverse effects on the academic self-concept in the group of students with older teachers (50+ years).