Probabilistic Insurance

Probabilistic insurance is an insurance policy involving a small probability that the consumer will not be reimbursed. Survey data suggest that people dislike probabilistic insurance and demand more than a 20% reduction in the premium to compensate for a 1% default risk. While these preferences are intuitively appealing they are difficult to reconcile with expected utility theory. Under highly plausible assumptions about the utility function, willingness to pay for probabilistic insurance should be very close to willingness to pay for standard insurance less the default risk. However, the reluctance to buy probabilistic insurance is predicted by the weighting function of prospect theory. This finding highlights the potential role of the weighting function to explain insurance.     

STICKY WAGES AND IMPLICIT CONTRACTS: A TRANSACTIONAL APPROACH

Sticky wages have been explained in the recent implicit contracts literature as a risk shifting device. Risk averse employees purchase insurance via an implicit contract from risk neutral firms. This paper offers an alternative explanation of the phenomenon. Various alternative organizational forms for labor markets are analyzed from a transactions cost viewpoint. Observed labor market institutions (including sticky wages) are seen as ways to economize on transactions costs. In fact, it is argued that sticky wages would be observed even if workers were risk neutral. Thus the emphasis on risk shifting in the implicit contracts literature seems misplaced.
A fall (in price) arising from temporary distress will be attended probably with no correspondent fall in the rate of wages: for the fall in price, and the distress, will be understood to be temporary, and the rate of wages, we know, is not so variable as the price of goods.