Generalized Laplacian approximations in Bayesian inference

This paper presents a new Laplacian approximation to the posterior density of η = g(θ). It has a simpler analytical form than that described by Leonard et al. (1989). The approximation derived by Leonard et al. requires a conditional information matrix R_η to be positive definite for every fixed η. However, in many cases, not all R_η are positive definite. In such cases, the computations of their approximations fail, since the approximation cannot be normalized. However, the new approximation may be modified so that the corresponding conditional information matrix can be made positive definite for every fixed η. In addition, a Bayesian procedure for contingency-table model checking is provided. An example of cross-classification between the educational level of a wife and fertility-planning status of couples is used for explanation. Various Laplacian approximations are computed and compared in this example and in an example of public school expenditures in the context of Bayesian analysis of the multiparameter Fisher-Behrens problem.     

澳洲台湾移民居住地选择的初探

本文针对悉尼和布里斯本两个都市之台湾移民的分布及居住迁徙作深入研究。主要透过深入访谈的方法 ,系统性的针对台湾移民选择居住地的因子及决策过程进行探讨 ,并尽量以社会地理学“局内人”的观点 ,架构居住地改变和选择的逻辑来思考整个迁徙过程的机制。研究结果显示 ,随着时间的改变 ,作迁徙决策时所考量的因子也会改变。刚到澳洲时 ,选择居住地的因子主要会考量亲友意见 ;随着经验的累积及对周遭环境的熟悉 ,个别差异性开始凸显 ,每个人对居住地的选择会有不同的考量与分析。在迁居上 ,有向双拼式建筑或都市公寓型房子搬迁的趋势     

Inspection of an unreliable flexible manufacturing system: with repairable parts and non-negligible inspection times

The purpose of this paper is to address the problem of quality control and repair in an FMS which is described by an open queuing network. We consider two cases: first, all detected defective parts are directed to a special repair facility; second, a defective part is repaired within the machine group where it is detected. Using numerical analyses, we provide some managerial insights regarding the role, position, and distribution of the inspection effort in an FMS, and draw some inferences regarding the design of such FMS when both quality and quantity issues in the FMS are considered.     

POLITICAL ECONOMY AND THE SOCIAL MARGINAL COST OF PUBLIC FUNDS: THE CASE OF THE MELTZER‐RICHARD ECONOMY

In previous studies on the social marginal cost of public funds (SMCF), the existing tax system has been assumed to be either arbitrary or optimal. This note explores another possibility: the existing tax system itself represents a political equilibrium. Our exploration proceeds in Meltzer and Richard’s (1981) political economy of redistributive taxation. An interesting feature of our finding is that the degree of income inequality as measured by the ratio of mean to median income can play an important role in estimating the SMCF and judging whether the level of redistribution is excessive or inadequate. (JEL D61, D72, H21)     

The Taxonomy, Model and Message Strategies of Social Behavior

In an era of rising social awareness, both academics and practitioners have been concerned about the effectiveness of pro‐social consumer influence strategies. The main assumption here is that for social marketing to succeed one must first understand the factors underlying pro‐social consumer behavior. Firstly, drawing on two dimensions (i.e. the welfare receiver and restitution intention) the authors first identify four types of social behavior (altruism, compensation, reciprocity, and egoism). Next, the model describes social behavior as a result of preceding social behavior motivation and actual social behavior intention. Norms and economic evaluation have an impact on social behavior motivation, which in turn influences social behavior intention, eventually leading to actual social behavior. Actual control factors, such as the availability of resources and opportunities, decide whether social behavior intention can really translate into actual social behavior. Finally, authors propose message strategies (incorporating message appeal, message frame and central/peripheral processing) for each type of social behavior.     

OPTIMAL ORDERING IN A DUAL‐SUPPLIER SYSTEM WITH DEMAND FORECAST UPDATES

We study how an updated demand forecast affects a manufacturer's choice in ordering raw materials. With demand forecast updates, we develop a model where raw materials are ordered from two suppliers—one fast but expensive and the other cheap but slow—and further provide an explicit solution to the resulting dynamic optimization problem. Under some mild conditions, we demonstrate that the cost function is convex and twice‐differentiable with respect to order quantity. With this model, we are able to evaluate the benefit of demand information updating which leads to the identification of directions for further improvement. We further demonstrate that the model applies to multiple‐period problems provided that some demand regularity conditions are satisfied. Data collected from a manufacturer support the structure and conclusion of the model. Although the model is described in the context of in‐bound logistics, it can be applied to production and out‐bound logistics decisions as well.     

CAPABILITY MEASURES FOR m-DEPENDENT STATIONARY PROCESSES

Process capability indices, providing numerical measures on process potential and process performance, have received substantial research attention. Most research assumes that the process is normally distributed and the process data are independent. In real-world applications such as chemical, soft drinks, or tobacco/cigaratte manufacturing processes, process data are often auto-correlated. In this paper, we consider the capability indices Cp, Cpk, Cpm, Cpmk for strictly m-dependent stationary processes. We investigate the statistical properties of their natural estimators. We derive the asymptotic distributions, and establish confidence intervals so that capability testing can be performed.     

Integration of disciplines for applied scheduling: a workshop report

The purposes of this paper are, first, to introduce several concepts and definitions related to Theory of Constraints design and management of unbalanced lines and, second, to illustrate the concepts of productive and protective capacity and inventory in a constrained line. Drum-buffer-rope is the Theory-of-Constraints based scheduling mechanism used to manage throughput at constraint work stations and flow at non-constraint work stations. A small simulation model is given to illustrate the importance of protective capacity and protective inventory at non-constraint stations. The line consists of several stations with the centre station being the constraint station. The capacity of (and inventory at) non-constraint stations is varied during the simulation. Line output increases as inventory at non-constraint stations increases. This result is contrary to traditional teaching about line design which says that line output is a function solely of the capacity of the slowest station.     

都会区公共财的提供:多层级治理模式

本文以台北都会区的大众捷运系统为例,就大都会区的地方治理模式与公共财或服务的提供问题进行深入分析.文章认为,大都会区的公共财或服务,有的适合以第一种多层级治理来提供,有的则适合以第二种多层级治理来提供,特别是具有外溢效果与规模经济的公共财或服务.     

INTEGRATION IN MANUFACTURING: AN INFORMATION THEORETIC PERSPECTIVE

Integration is a buzzword in manufacturing strategies for global competitiveness. However, some fundamental questions have yet to be answered scientifically; namely, what is integration, why integrate, and what should be integrated? How do existing integration models approach the problems of integration and to what extent are they successful? A theory-based model of information requirements for integrated manufacturing is needed to answer these questions properly. Such a model can unify hitherto narrowly defined and domainoriented approaches. We suggest a paradigm of parallel formulation and use it to formulate the information requirements for integration, including data and knowledge classes, decision spaces, and logical interactions.