热河蒙古族的历史变迁

蒙古族是热河地区主要民族之一。本文揭示了元、明、清时期该地区的蒙古族与其他民族间军事争战,造成经济萧条,民不聊生。在和平时期各民族间互助合作,促进了该地区的经济发展,社会进步     

Learning from a lot: Empirical Bayes for high‐dimensional model‐based prediction

Empirical Bayes is a versatile approach to “learn from a lot” in two ways: first, from a large number of variables and, second, from a potentially large amount of prior information, for example, stored in public repositories. We review applications of a variety of empirical Bayes methods to several well‐known model‐based prediction methods, including penalized regression, linear discriminant analysis, and Bayesian models with sparse or dense priors. We discuss “formal” empirical Bayes methods that maximize the marginal likelihood but also more informal approaches based on other data summaries. We contrast empirical Bayes to cross‐validation and full Bayes and discuss hybrid approaches. To study the relation between the quality of an empirical Bayes estimator and p, the number of variables, we consider a simple empirical Bayes estimator in a linear model setting. We argue that empirical Bayes is particularly useful when the prior contains multiple parameters, which model a priori information on variables termed “co‐data”. In particular, we present two novel examples that allow for co‐data: first, a Bayesian spike‐and‐slab setting that facilitates inclusion of multiple co‐data sources and types and, second, a hybrid empirical Bayes–full Bayes ridge regression approach for estimation of the posterior predictive interval.     

Wiki-worthy: collective judgment of candidate notability

The use of socio-technical data to predict elections is a growing research area. We argue that election prediction research suffers from under-specified theoretical models that do not properly distinguish between ‘poll-like’ and ‘prediction market-like’ mechanisms understand findings. More specifically, we argue that, in systems with strong norms and reputational feedback mechanisms, individuals have market-like incentives to bias content creation toward candidates they expect will win. We provide evidence for the merits of this approach using the creation of Wikipedia pages for candidates in the 2010 US and UK national legislative elections. We find that Wikipedia editors are more likely to create Wikipedia pages for challengers who have a better chance of defeating their incumbent opponent and that the timing of these page creations coincides with periods when collective expectations for the candidate's success are relatively high.     

天堂寨假日旅游市场调查分析

在实地考察与调查并拥有大量第一手资料的基础上,从旅游客源构成、旅游者行为特征及经济特征、旅游评价、旅游市场空间结构等方面,对天堂寨假日旅游市场进行了具体分析,并探讨了天堂寨旅游市场开发的对策与策略。     

高等院校贫困生现状与资助体系

高校学生资助工作是我国高等教育事业的重要组成部分,做好对高校家庭经济困难学生的资助工作对我国教育事业改革和发展具有重要意义.我国高等教育的快速发展,为高校学生资助工作提出了保障经费投入基础上进一步提高资助质量的新要求.为满足这一新的要求,高校需要从筹款途径创新和学生资助政策变革两个方面进行突破:将以市场为导向的多元化筹款方略与尊重受助学生主体地位的多样化资助机制结合在一起,形成高校学生资助工作的可持续化发展模式.     

Emerging Practice in Responsible Supply Chain Management: Closed‐Pipe Supply Chain of Conflict‐Free Minerals from the Democratic Republic of Congo

Minerals originated from eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) are blamed for financing violent conflict in the area over the past decade and have been called conflict minerals. They vividly demonstrate a key human rights issue facing responsible supply chain management. The conflict minerals issue has led to a significant shift in responsible supply chain management in two ways: extending producer responsibility to respect human rights in the total supply chain through establishing traceability and transparency; and developing legally binding supply chain responsibility. This article examines an emerging effort to source conflict‐free minerals using closed‐pipe supply chain in the DRC as a new strategy to respond to the above paradigm shift. By exploring whether this new strategy can contribute to conflict prevention in the DRC, this article argues that the closed‐pipe supply chain allows building long‐term relationship with various stakeholders and has the potential to transform socio‐economic structures in the producing communities, thereby leading to peacebuilding in the long run.     

论《离骚》与《史记》内在精神的一致性

《离骚》与《史记》的内在精神具有高度的一致性,主要表现在两个方面:一是强烈的抒情特征,一是尚“奇”的审美追求。形成这种内在精神一致性的原因,一方面是司马迁与屈原都具有“发愤著书”这一共同的创作动因,另一方面是司马迁深受楚文化及以《离骚》为代表的“楚辞”影响的结果。     

论配偶间同居义务的效力

配偶间的同居义务是配偶权的核心内容之一,关于是否确认夫妻间的同居义务,同居义务是否将导致婚内强奸的泛滥,一直困扰着理论和实务界。本文以同居义务的性质和行使的分析为基础,从同居义务的法律效力着眼,探讨了其对夫妻间侵权行为的阻却违法性效力,以及违法同居义务的法律后果等问题,指出了配偶间同居义务的特殊性,并运用利益衡量的方法就同居义务与性自由进行价值权衡,从而论证了配偶将同居义务的特殊性和正当性。