Imagined past,present and futures in Murray–Darling Basin communities

Over the past three decades, irrigation-dependent rural communities in Australia's Murray–Darling Basin have experienced profound economic, social and environmental changes, which they are attempting to accommodate through local government policy. As a contribution to participatory policy design research, in consultation with local governments we carried out focus groups to explore diversity of individuals’ imagined past and present in two rural communities. This was followed by group development of a diverse range of future scenarios and agreement to three likely scenarios. The research identified presence or absence of three underlying themes – irrigation, innovation and inflow of people – that plausibly drive change in these rural communities. These themes are likely to be common to many rural communities that have depended on irrigated agriculture. They provide an example of participatory policy-making, as distinct from the historically employed top-down policy development that has occurred in the Murray–Darling Basin. Because of the diversity of perceptions of past, present and futures, and the ultimate adoption of business-as-usual within the final local government plans, the research emphasises the need to put effort into community deliberations to build cohesion and share ownership of the process for delivering locally nuanced community policy.     

Assessing the prediction accuracy of cure in the Cox proportional hazards cure model: an application to breast cancer data

A cure rate model is a survival model incorporating the cure rate with the assumption that the population contains both uncured and cured individuals. It is a powerful statistical tool for prognostic studies, especially in cancer. The cure rate is important for making treatment decisions in clinical practice. The proportional hazards (PH) cure model can predict the cure rate for each patient. This contains a logistic regression component for the cure rate and a Cox regression component to estimate the hazard for uncured patients. A measure for quantifying the predictive accuracy of the cure rate estimated by the Cox PH cure model is required, as there has been a lack of previous research in this area. We used the Cox PH cure model for the breast cancer data; however, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) could not be estimated because many patients were censored. In this study, we used imputation‐based AUCs to assess the predictive accuracy of the cure rate from the PH cure model. We examined the precision of these AUCs using simulation studies. The results demonstrated that the imputation‐based AUCs were estimable and their biases were negligibly small in many cases, although ordinary AUC could not be estimated. Additionally, we introduced the bias‐correction method of imputation‐based AUCs and found that the bias‐corrected estimate successfully compensated the overestimation in the simulation studies. We also illustrated the estimation of the imputation‐based AUCs using breast cancer data. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

论志贺直哉《赤西蛎太》的文学地位

志贺直哉强调艺术性,其作品被视为缺少时代性和现实性,但作为同时代里诞生的"古典",却保持着卓越的文学地位.志贺的作品脱离"通俗趣味",其"诗化精神"赢得芥川龙之介的尊崇.本文依据志贺的著名随笔<创作余谈>,选出志贺的一篇精品<赤西蛎太>,对其艺术性内质加以深层探究,并论述<赤西蛎太>问世后,随着文学潮流的变化,被改编成电影和歌舞伎后展示的新貌.     

SOURCES OF INFORMATION ABOUT HIV/AIDS,TRUST OF SOURCES AND PERCEIVED RISK OF INFECTION

The relationship between sources of information about AIDS/HIV, trust of the sources, how informed about AIDS people thought they were, and perceived risk to self and others were examined using three samples. One included young heterosexual students (113 females and 91 males), while the others included slightly older heterosexuals (74 females and 73 males) and homosexuals (82 males) from the general community. Homosexual men were the only group who trusted the same sources from which they received the most information (eg gay publications and AIDS organisations). Heterosexuals trusted expert sources the most, but the students received most information from magazines aimed at their peer groups and the heterosexuals in the community sample received most information from the print media. For the students, perceived personal risk was influenced most by perceived risk to male friends and people with the same sexual practices, whereas for the community samples it was influenced most by perceived risk to people with the same practices. The results suggest a strong peer influence on perceptions of personal risk of HIV infection.     

Challenges to Successful Community-based Integrated Approach to Dementia: A Qualitative Study

The aim of this study is to identify key challenges to successful community-based integrated team approach to the management of older adults with dementia. A nationwide community-based qualitative research strategy was applied. We purposively recruited 24 health-care providers and 13 family caregivers from selected 8 prefectures among 47 prefectures. Face to face interviews were conducted from May to September 2017. Qualitative content analysis was used to analyze the qualitative data. Ten themes regarding the challenges were emerged: Ignored wishes, Family caregivers’ full responsibilities, Encouragement, Practical and easy-to-understand information, Essential skills of dementia diagnosis and assessment, Gratitude by helping others, Difference between being kind and overly-kind, Legal barrier against information sharing, Coordination between volunteers and clients, and Conflict avoidance in multidisciplinary collaboration. The findings highlight the need to provide practical and easy-to-understand information for family caregivers, educate physicians in dementia diagnosis and assessment, share personal dementia care information among health-care providers, promote platforms which aim to match dementia care volunteers with older adults with dementia and their families in need of help, and raise awareness of advance care planning among both older individuals and health-care providers.     

A management policy for sika deer based on sex-specific hunting

We consider here a management policy for a sika deer (Cervus nippon) population in the eastern part of Hokkaido. Deer populations are characterized by a large intrinsic rate of population increase, no significant density effects on population growth before population crash, and a relatively simple life history. Our goals of management for the deer population are (1) to avoid irruption with severe damage to agriculture and forestry, (2) to avoid the risk of extinction of the deer population, and (3) to maintain a sustainable yield of deer. To make a robust program on the basis of uncertain information about the deer population, we consider three levels of relative population size and four levels of hunting pressures. We also take into consideration a critical level for extinction, an optimal level, and an irruption level. The hunting pressure for females is set to increase with the population size. We also recommend catching males if the population size is between the critical and optimal levels and catching females and males if the population size is larger than the optimal level. We must avoid cases of irruption or threatened population under various sets of uncertain parameter values. The simulation results suggest that management based on sex-specific hunting is effective to diminish the annual variation in hunting yield. Received: April 8, 1998 / Accepted: December 25, 1998     

Effect of design specifications in dose‐finding trials for combination therapies in oncology

Model‐based dose‐finding methods for a combination therapy involving two agents in phase I oncology trials typically include four design aspects namely, size of the patient cohort, three‐parameter dose‐toxicity model, choice of start‐up rule, and whether or not to include a restriction on dose‐level skipping. The effect of each design aspect on the operating characteristics of the dose‐finding method has not been adequately studied. However, some studies compared the performance of rival dose‐finding methods using design aspects outlined by the original studies. In this study, we featured the well‐known four design aspects and evaluated the impact of each independent effect on the operating characteristics of the dose‐finding method including these aspects. We performed simulation studies to examine the effect of these design aspects on the determination of the true maximum tolerated dose combinations as well as exposure to unacceptable toxic dose combinations. The results demonstrated that the selection rates of maximum tolerated dose combinations and UTDCs vary depending on the patient cohort size and restrictions on dose‐level skipping However, the three‐parameter dose‐toxicity models and start‐up rules did not affect these parameters. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Risk Perception and Risk Talk: The Case of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Radiation Risk

Individuals’ perceptions and their interpersonal communication about a risk event, or risk talk, can play a significant role in the formation of societal responses to the risk event. As they formulate their risk opinions and speak to others, risk information can circulate through their social networks and contribute to the construction of their risk information environment. In the present study, Japanese citizens’ risk perception and risk talk were examined in the context of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear radiation risk. We hypothesized and found that the risk information environment and risk literacy (i.e., competencies to understand and use risk information) interact to influence their risk perception and risk talk. In particular, risk literacy tends to stabilize people's risk perceptions and their risk communications. Nevertheless, there were some subtle differences between risk perception and communication, suggesting the importance of further examination of interpersonal risk communication and its role in the societal responses to risk events.