Construction of repeated measurements designs strongly balanced for residual effects

Abstract

Repeated Measurements Designs have been widely used in agriculture, animal husbandry, education, biology, botany and engineering. Balanced or strongly balanced repeated measurements designs are useful to balance out the residual effects. In this article, some new generators and construction procedures are proposed to obtain circular strongly balanced repeated measurements designs in periods of (a) equal sizes, (b) two different sizes, and (c) three different sizes.     

Progressive Variance Control Charts for Monitoring Process Dispersion

In a process, the deviation from location or scale parameters affects the quality of the process and waste resources. So it is essential to monitor such processes for possible changes due to any assignable causes. Control charts are the most famous tool used to meet this intention. It is useless to monitor process location until the assurance that process dispersion is in-control. This study proposes some new two-sided memory control charts named as progressive variance (PV) control charts which are based on sample variance to monitor changes in process dispersion assuming normality of quality characteristic to be monitored. Simulation studies are made, and an example is discussed to evaluate the performance of the proposed charts. The comparison of the proposed chart is made with exponentially weighted moving average- and cumulative sum-type charts for process dispersion. The study shows that performance of the proposed charts are uniformly better than its competitors for detecting positive shifts while for detecting negative shift in the variance their performance is better for small shifts and reasonably good for moderated shifts.     

Risk analysis of fast spreading species in a Kashmir Himalayan National Park (Dachigam) for better monitoring and management

Huge economic costs and ecological impacts of invasive alien species (IAS) in the protected areas (PAs) worldwide make their timely prediction and potential risk assessment of central importance for effective management. While the preborder weed risk assessment framework has been extensively evaluated and implemented, the postborder species risk assessment framework has not been subjected to the same degree of scrutiny. Here we used a rather more realistic modified version of the Australian Weed Risk framework (AWRM) for Dachigam National Park (DNP) in Kashmir Himalaya against 84 plant species, including 55 alien species and 29 fast spreading native species, for risk analysis. We found two very high-risk species, three high-risk species, 10 medium-risk species, 29 low-risk species, and 40 negligible-risk species in the DNP. The containment scores accordingly ranged from 14.4 to 293.5 comprising of 27 species that can be contained with very high feasibility, 23 species with high feasibility, 14 species with medium feasibility, and 12 species which cannot be contained easily thereby having low feasibility of containment (FOC) score. However, eight species which have a negligible FOC score are difficult to contain within their infestation sites. Our results demonstrate the merit of the AWRM with a caution that the necessary region-specific modifications may help in its better implementation. Overall, these results provide quite a promising tool in the hands of protected area managers to timely and effectively deal with the problem of plant invasions.     

Can Benefits and Work Incentives Counseling be a Path to Future Economic Self-Sufficiency for Individuals with Disabilities?

In this paper, I estimate the relationship between benefit counseling and work incentive services and various labor market outcomes in the case of Supplemental Security Income /Social Security Disability Insurance beneficiaries who from 2003 to 2009 participated in the Vocational Rehabilitation programs in New York State. Using the propensity score matching approach, I find that counseling services can increase the probability of successful case closure by 5.2 percentage points. At the same time, these services can increase the earnings and working hours of beneficiaries by $42 and 3.3 h per week, respectively. Moreover, there is a $0.59 per hour increase in the wage rate for service recipients. From these results I conclude that providing benefit counseling and work incentive services helps beneficiaries who have strong employment goals achieve financial independence.     

Does inflation bias stabilize real growth? Evidence from Pakistan

The motive of a typical discretionary central banker to accommodate excess inflation (inflation bias) is either to stabilize real growth or to spur it beyond natural rate. To what extent inflation bias helps to materialize this intention warrants empirical investigation. A more direct empirical probe into this issue, however, requires observable inflation bias indicators, which we model through desirable and threshold inflation rates as well as their respective society’s preferences. While examining the effects of inflation bias for a typical case of the discretionary monetary policy strategy of Pakistan, we found that contrary to the desired boost/stabilization in real growth, the policy (via. inflation bias) produced counterproductive results. Inflation bias was not merely ineffective in inducing real growth but significantly destabilized it. Moreover, the results, which are robust to different inflation bias indicators and subsample analysis, indicate that the higher the inflation bias, the higher is the intensity (magnitude) of its destabilizing effect and vice versa. This suggests that a policy that would minimize/constrain inflation bias would be a better choice as it would not only help achieve low and stable inflation but also a sustainable real economic growth.     

Non-binary neighbor balance circular designs for v=2n and λ=2

Neighbor balance designs were first introduced by Rees (1967) in circular blocks for the use in serological research. Subsequently several researchers have defined the neighbor designs in different ways. In this paper, neighbor balance circular designs for (k≤v) block size are constructed for even number of treatments i.e. v=2n. No such series of designs is known in literature. Two theorems are developed for circular designs. Theorem 1 gives the non-binary circular blocks, whereas Theorem 2 generates binary circular blocks when n≤4 and non-binary blocks for n>4. In suggested designs no treatment is ever a neighbor of itself. Blocks are constructed in such a way that each treatment is a right and left neighbor of every other treatment for a fixed number of times say λ. Sizes of initial circular blocks are not same. One main guiding principle for such designs is to ensure economy in material use.     

Probabilistic Modeling of Flood Hazard and its Risk Assessment for Eastern Region of India

This article models flood occurrence probabilistically and its risk assessment. It incorporates atmospheric parameters to forecast rainfall in an area. This measure of precipitation, together with river and ground parameters, serve as parameters in the model to predict runoff and subsequently inundation depth of an area. The inundation depth acts as a guide for predicting flood proneness and associated hazard. The vulnerability owing to flood has been analyzed as social vulnerability $(V_S)$, vulnerability to property $(V_P)$, and vulnerability to the location in terms of awareness $(V_A)$. The associated risk has been estimated for each area. The distribution of risk values can be used to classify every area into one of the six risk zones—namely, very low risk, low risk, moderately low risk, medium risk, high risk, and very high risk. The prioritization regarding preparedness, evacuation planning, or distribution of relief items should be guided by the range on the risk scale within which the area under study falls. The flood risk assessment model framework has been tested on a real‐life case study. The flood risk indices for each of the municipalities in the area under study have been calculated. The risk indices and hence the flood risk zone under which a municipality is expected to lie would alter every day. The appropriate authorities can then plan ahead in terms of preparedness to combat the impending flood situation in the most critical and vulnerable areas.     

Television and the Internet

The article considers the consumption of television and the Internet in Russia. The concepts of relative constancy and the theory of utility and demand of the media are the theoretical basis of the analysis. The empirical basis is drawn from the results of a study of communicative behavior of Russia's urban population. The article proposes a typology of the consumption of television and the Internet in terms of the duration of media consumption, and discusses the factors that determine the characteristics of the current state of affairs and prospects for the consumption of television and the Internet in the future.     

Do we follow others when we should outside the lab? Evidence from the AP top 25

We use data from the Associated Press college American football poll to analyze two types of ex-post optimality of social learning in a non-lab setting. The poll is a weekly subjective ranking of the top 25 teams, voted on by over 60 sports journalists. Voters potentially can learn from their peers by observing the aggregate ranks before updating their individual ranks. Our results indicate that, while voters do learn from their peers to some extent, the informativeness of peer ranks appears to be under-valued.