你能判断出正确的“信号”吗？

变化总是有先兆的——即使在最为变化无常的情境中也是如此我们每个人每天都会根据对未来的判断做出不计其数的决定, 其中某些的决定会比其他决定更为冒险。投资者们购买股价即将急剧上涨的公司的股票;分析家们撰写报告预测行业趋势:顾问们为客户提出决定成败的建议。     

权力概念:理论的发展

尽管在当代社会学中,人们使用权力术语时,都伴随着概念和术语的大量混乱,但在概念化过程中,有两个主要的传统可以一下子区分开来。第一,权力可以被看作为行动者A(他可以是一个个人,也可以是一个集体)把意志加诸行动者B,甚至与B 的抵抗相对抗,因此B 被A 所支配。第二权力可以被概念化为集体所能利用、并被用于他们利益的一种资源,权力使他们达到自己的目的;在这一观点中,权力被概念化为一种集体的工具。第一种说法,尽管甚为古老了,但大部分源出马克     

贫困的政治根源——专制制度的经济逻辑

贫困直接导致恐怖主义的论断其实很肤浅。更令人信服的结论是:物质水平的不断提高,对社会和个人权力预期的不断增强,刺激了政治极权主义和暴力行为。但不可否认,大多数滋生恐怖主义的国家在人均收入上往往处于低水平,“贫困和不公正”会激起人们对财富和强权的怨恨,因此恐怖主义会赢得赞赏和支持。可以肯定的是,如果不去解决不良政府的问题,缓解贫困的所有努力都将付之东流。     

摆脱错觉

尽管众多学者、记者、退休军官、政客以及专家为美国重塑中东的宏伟目标出谋划策，但在中东地区民族宿怨、社会宗教问题以及激进叛乱的冲击之下，该目标的实现依然遥遥无期。这些精英人士显然遗忘了西方最著名的战略思想家卡尔·冯·克劳塞维茨（Carl von Clausewitz）曾经说过的话：“作战就是部署和实施搏斗。     

西藏塑像研究与保护中的宗教和伦理问题

前言研究和保护西藏塑像涉及许多复杂的问题，部分原因是由于这些作品的制作并非完全出于美学的目的，作品在严肃的西藏宗教活动中发挥着各种功能。对于密宗塑像来说，多种功能甚至是共同的。密宗塑像是用来传授秘密教义的，密咒本续文献中有载。就是这些塑像向学者和保护者们提出了最复杂的问题和伦理的窘境。在西方现存的收藏品中，这些塑像难以被忽视。不管怎样，有一些明确的步骤使保护专家可以从事对西藏佛教塑像的研究，并且保证伦理的选择被充分地考虑了。西藏宗教活动中偶像塑像的作用1．佛教塑像佛教涉及怜悯的发展和对无的认识及…     

Using Geographic Information Systems to Reconceptualize Spatial Relationships and Ecological Context

In this article, the author demonstrates how geographic information system (GIS) software can be used to reconceptualize spatial relationships and ecological context and address the modifiable areal unit problem. In order to do this, the author uses GIS to (1) test an important category of spatial hypotheses (spatial proximity hypotheses), (2) overcome methodological problems that arise when data sets are not spatially comparable, and (3) measure ecological context. The author introduces a set of GIS variable construction techniques that are designed to accomplish these tasks, illustrates these techniques empirically by using them to test spatial proximity hypotheses drawn from the literature on environmental inequality, and demonstrates that results obtained using these techniques are methodologically superior to and substantively different from results obtained using traditional techniques. Finally, the author demonstrates that these techniques are the product of an alternative conceptualization of physical space that allows sociologists to develop new ways to think about and measure spatial relationships, ecological context, and place-based social inequality and that gives them the ability to reconceptualize spatially based methodological problems that have confronted them for years.     

历史上的大流感

自古以来，瘟疫就经常给人类带来巨大的灾难。流感便是其中主要的一种。流感一般分为三种，即甲型、乙型和丙型。甲型流感也就是目前向人类发起新挑战的禽流感。让我们翻开人类疾病的历史，看看历史上的流感是怎样的。     

现代国际贸易理论中的国内和国际规模收益

在二战后的国际贸易中,工业化国家之间的制造业产品的交易量巨大,这种产业内贸易现象的出现,在一定程度上对传统的赫克歇尔-俄林-萨缪尔逊贸易模型产生了冲击和质疑。经济学家从多个角度寻求对这种现象的理论解释,并开始注意产品差别化及其对规模经济的影响,但是,这些研究对贸易理论的影响很小,并且解释现实的能力也很弱。因此,把差别化的生产资料作为研究的重点,在国际收益的框架下,建立模型以推出国际规模收益,并且运用这一模型得出了国际规模收益、传统的国内规模收益和要素禀赋论之间的关系。     

The impact of Chilean migration on employment in Patagonia

This paper discusses the employment situation of Chilean migrant workers, their impact on labor markets in Patagonia, Argentina, and the government's past and projected responses to this phenomenon. In 1980, Chilean inhabitants of patagonia comprised 11% of the area's population. Chilean migration to patagonia was closely linked to economic activities that began to flourish in the 20th century, such as livestock raising, fruit and vegetable cultivation, and mining for coal and petroleum. No Chilean migrants work in a wide range of sectors. In Patagonia's southern provinces availability and ability to withstand rigorous climate conditions are the main factors which account for the prevalence of Chilean manpower. Chilean migrants do not in general displace local manpower. Legislation and the permeability of the border ensure that most workers enter the country as tourists. Clandestine migration is not an issue. Illegal migrants have provoked negative reactions for several reasons: 1) they comprise a marginal population without formal citizenship; 2) being employed as clandestine workers, they pay no social security, nor do their employers; 3) being illegal, they are obliged to accept lower wages and inferior working conditions which creates unfair competition within labor markets; and 4) as a result of these conditions, xenophobic and endophobic attitudes in relations with Argentine nationalists are reinforced. The government has attempted to solve these problems through various measures. Beginning in 1934, most foreigners entered Argentina with a tourist visa, becoming illegal when they stayed beyond authorized limits. Several measures over the years provided amnesty to illegal migrants. Currently, the law promotes immigration, monitors the admission of foreigners to the country and stipulates their rights and obligations. The law lists 115 articles on immigration promotion and on regulation of the movements of foreigners. Because of the present economic crisis in Argentina, authorities are investigating the effect of Chilean manpower on Argentine labor markets.     

Training with o (observing) and T (treatment) teams in live supervision: reflections in the looking glass*

Working with a treatment and observing team at the same time, behind the oneway mirror, offers a variety of ways to: (a) generate multiple realities; (b) work with two different models of family therapy simultaneously; and (c) provide feedback on the teams' own roles, rules and group process. The process that 6 trainees and two supervisors used with T and O teams to examine their own coevolution as a therapeutic system using the Milan model of family therapy and Ericksonian hypnotherapy is described. The article concludes with a discussion of the advantages and pitfalls of this type of dual supervision.