决策的3大依据公司的先例、相关规定和行事规则

并非每一项决策都能轻易做出。举棋不定时，领导者不妨参考以下3个标准。     

当谈判陷入僵局 试试“暂置策略”

在进行谈判的过程中，你经常会遇到各种僵局、困境或者是死胡同。以下是我对这三种情况的定义：     

Statistical approaches for conducting network meta-analysis in drug development

We introduce health technology assessment and evidence synthesis briefly, and then concentrate on the statistical approaches used for conducting network meta-analysis (NMA) in the development and approval of new health technologies. NMA is an extension of standard meta-analysis where indirect as well as direct information is combined and can be seen as similar to the analysis of incomplete-block designs. We illustrate it with an example involving three treatments, using fixed-effects and random-effects models, and using frequentist and Bayesian approaches. As most statisticians in the pharmaceutical industry are familiar with SAS? software for analyzing clinical trials, we provide example code for each of the methods we illustrate. One issue that has been overlooked in the literature is the choice of constraints applied to random effects, and we show how this affects the estimates and standard errors and propose a symmetric set of constraints that is equivalent to most current practice. Finally, we discuss the role of statisticians in planning and carrying out NMAs and the strategy for dealing with important issues such as heterogeneity.     

当谈判陷入僵局

试试"暂置策略"在进行谈判的过程中,你经常会遇到各种僵局、困境或者是死胡同。以下是我对这三种情况的定义:●所谓僵局,就是指谈判双方就某一个问题产生巨大分歧,而且这种分歧已经影响到谈判的进展了;●所谓困境,就是指双方仍然在进行谈判,但却似乎无法取得任何进展了;     

谈判，白脸配黑脸

白脸－黑脸策略是最有名的谈判策略之一。查尔斯·狄更斯在他的小说《远大前程》里面曾经对这种策略进行过精彩的描述。在故事一开始，我们年轻的主人公皮普正在一处坟地干活，突然，一个样子可怕的大块头冲了出来。这家伙是一个在逃犯，腿上还带着脚镣。他让皮普去村子里带些食物和工具回来，这样他就可以把脚镣取下来。这时嫌疑犯陷入了一个两难的局面。一方面他想让皮普害怕他，因为只有这样，我们的主人公才会听他的吩咐；而另一方面，他又不能让皮普过于害怕他，因为如果这样的话，孩子很可能会跑到村子里报警。     

简洁有效的钳子策略

钳子策略是一种非常有效的谈判策略，它的神奇效果一定会让你大吃一惊。这种策略应用起来非常简单，你只要告诉对方：“你必须做得更好”就可以了。     

美国科学的衰落

近些年,人们常常谈论说美国学生不愿学习科学和数学了。这种趋势导致人们对我国二十一世纪在科学和工业上的竞争能力进行了种种可怕的预测。虽然我不完全同意“专家们”的预测,但是很明显,美国的科学教育和科技人材的储备在过去的二十年中大大地滑坡了。所幸的是,那些视美国为科研的机会之国的移民支撑着我们,他们也对美国学生形成了必要的竞争,在学术和研究方面日益取代美国学生。也许,事情本该如此,也许不该如此。     

Practical usage of O'Brien's OLS and GLS statistics in clinical trials

Multivariate techniques of O'Brien's OLS and GLS statistics are discussed in the context of their application in clinical trials. We introduce the concept of an operational effect size and illustrate its use to evaluate power. An extension describing how to handle covariates and missing data is developed in the context of Mixed models. This extension allowing adjustment for covariates is easily programmed in any statistical package including SAS. Monte Carlo simulation is used for a number of different sample sizes to compare the actual size and power of the tests based on O'Brien's OLS and GLS statistics.     

简洁有效的钳子策略

无论对方是报价还是还价,你只需要说“对不起,你必须调整一下价格”。     

退却中的全球化——金融危机的地缘政治后果

美国经济模式的声望正在衰落。为了让全球化重上轨道，奥巴马总统必须清楚地阐明开放市场和自由贸易的各种好处。