CAN THE PRESIDENT REALLY AFFECT ECONOMIC GROWTH? PRESIDENTIAL EFFORT AND THE POLITICAL BUSINESS CYCLE

Presidential elections are often seen as referendums on the health of the economy; however, little evidence exists on the president's ability to influence gross domestic product (GDP). This study examines the effect of the incentive to be reelected and the resulting increase in presidential effort on GDP growth. Growth is found to rise in reelection years for first‐term presidents after 1932 and to fall in election years before 1932, when reelection was uncommon, and for second‐term presidents generally. This effect is largest for high‐quality presidents—who probably have the highest return to effort—and is spread across multiple sectors of the economy. (JEL D78, D72, E32, J24)     

Population constraints on pooled surveys in demographic hazard modeling

In non-experimental research, data on the same population process may be collected simultaneously by more than one instrument. For example, in the present application, two sample surveys and a population birth registration system all collect observations on first births by age and year, while the two surveys additionally collect information on women’s education. To make maximum use of the three data sources, the survey data are pooled and the population data introduced as constraints in a logistic regression equation. Reductions in standard errors about the age and birth-cohort parameters of the regression equation in the order of three-quarters are obtained by introducing the population data as constraints. A halving of the standard errors about the education parameters is achieved by pooling observations from the larger survey dataset with those from the smaller survey. The percentage reduction in the standard errors through imposing population constraints is independent of the total survey sample size.     

Triangular empathy: “The other” in psychotherapy with individuals

This paper seeks to explore triangular dimensions in individual psychotherapy. In addition to serving as the dyadic object of transference projection and/or as selfobject for a person in psychotherapy, the therapist may be called upon to help the patient work on relationships with certain early, important people or their representations and on the interplay between such relationships and the therapeutic one, that is, in a triangular configuration. Because patients' attempts to introduce others into individual psychotherapy are sometimes experienced by therapists as resistant rather than as integral to the therapeutic process, I propose an empathic reconsideration of such patient efforts to get us to help with the complicated dimensions of human relatedness.     

Distribution of exotic monk parakeets across an urban landscape

Monk parakeets (Myiopsitta monachus) are the most abundant and widely distributed of the naturalized parrots in the United States. Their presence is simultaneously encouraged by some humans (through use of bird feeders) and discouraged by others (through removal of their nests) and, as a result, they show an interesting spatial distribution across urban areas. We used an online public survey and field surveys to examine the influence of human activities and land use on the distribution of this exotic species around Chicago, IL (USA). These efforts resulted in detection of 249 nesting structures and approximately 778 birds across the region. A CART analysis successfully separated nesting sites from random sites and correctly classified 90?% of the nesting sites. The most important factor in the model was land use, with nests typically found in areas with less than 84?% residential zoning. We found nests on a wide variety of substrates including trees, cell phone towers, and stadium lights. Spatial point pattern analysis indicated that nests in trees and nests in built substrates were significantly dissociated with each other at all scales. Nests on built substrates were closer to railroads and highways or in areas with lower human population density, suggesting either a difference in substrate availability or human tolerance between these settings. While humans may have a positive effect on distribution of monk parakeets at large spatial scales, at the scale of this study we see a potentially negative effect of too many humans on the distribution of monk parakeet nests.     

Demand for gambling: development and assessment of a gambling purchase task

Self-report purchase tasks are a novel approach examining the reinforcing value of addictive behaviour relative to increasing monetary costs required to access the addictive behaviour (i.e. demand). These measures reveal a positive relationship between the indices of demand and addiction problem severity and can elucidate factors associated with motivation for substance use. Gambling is an addictive behaviour that has not been examined using this paradigm. This study seeks to adapt and examine the purchase task for gambling behaviour. A gambling purchase task was devised that asked individuals how often per month they would gamble at various cover charges. Participants were 73 adults from the community with either gambling disorder (n = 28) or alcohol use disorder (n = 24) or were a healthy control (n = 21). Both the alcohol and gambling purchase tasks were administered. Results demonstrate discriminant validity of the gambling purchase task, as individuals with gambling disorder have significantly greater demand for accessing gambling than other groups. The alcohol purchase task also evidenced discriminant validity in that individuals with alcohol use disorder have significantly greater demand for alcohol than other groups. These findings support the use of the gambling purchase task to assess the demand for gambling.     

The sociological landscape of youth confinement

This article examines key sociological questions that are raised by the confinement of children and young people. Globally, there are approximately one million children held in confinement, and there is an emerging body of qualitative sociological research in this area. This article examines the role that social constructions of childhood innocence and evil play in shaping the processes of protection and removal, and how these constructions play a role in mediating state strategies of punishment and rehabilitation. The article also draws from an emerging body of qualitative sociological research to examine the role of youth confinement institutions in socializing vulnerable young people.     

A theory of unanimous jury voting with an ambiguous likelihood

Theory and Decision - We examine collective decision-making in a jury voting game under the unanimity rule when voters have ambiguous beliefs. Unlike in existing studies (Ellis in Theoretical...