Fertility Decline in Czechoslovakia During the Last Two Centuries

The decline of fertility in Czechoslovakia on the territory of the Czech Socialist Republic began with a rise in the age at marriage; the decline of marital fertility began only after 1860. On the territory of the Slovak Socialist Republic marital fertility began to decline after 1900 without previous significant changes in the age at marriage. The differences between the demographic behaviour in the two parts of Czechoslovakia have persisted, although they are now gradually disappearing. There are other significant regional differences in the fertility decline caused by the overall process of economic and social development. The end of the demographic transition in the Czech Socialist Republic came during the 1930's and in the Slovak Socialist Republic during the 1960's.     

Immobility in Moldova: Beyond the migration paradigm

This paper explores the motivations and barriers behind the decision of economically disadvantaged Moldovans to refrain from migrating for better economic prospects. Drawing on 30 qualitative interviews with voluntary stayers, it uncovers a range of individual-level characteristics that impede migration aspirations. These findings highlight the heightened sensitivity of lower-wage stayers to their perceived social status abroad, their limited adaptability to new cultures and environments and their lower willpower to endure the challenges of long-term gains. Moreover, this paper sheds light on their contentment with modest material gains and their aversion to migration risks. At the structural level, it emphasizes how social inequalities act as barriers for specific social groups, particularly the economically disadvantaged. These empirical insights challenge prevailing assumptions about the dominance of economic costs and network abroad in migration decision-making, offering a fresh perspective on the social factors and costs shaping stayers' choices.     

Crime Victimization in Latin America and Intentions to Migrate to the United States

Among the challenges faced by Latin America at the onset of the 21st century is the increase in crime and violence that began in the mid-1980s, and which, to one degree or another, has afflicted most countries in the region. In this study we explore the potential implications of the upsurge in crime on migration by testing the hypothesis that crime victimization in Latin America increases the probability that people have given serious thought to the prospect of migrating with their families to the United States. Using Latinobarometro public opinion surveys of approximately 49,000 respondents residing in 17 countries in 2002, 2003, and 2004, the results of a Hierarchical Generalized Linear Model found that, net of individual and country-level control variables, the probability of seriously considering family migration to the United States was around 30 percent higher among respondents who reported that they or a member of their family was a victim of a crime sometime during the year prior to the survey. Evidence that victimization promotes the propensity to emigrate is a finding that contributes to an understanding of the transnational consequences of the increase in crime in Latin America, and adds a new variable to the inventory of factors that encourage people to migrate to the United States.     

Bayesian,classical and hybrid methods of inference when one parameter value is special

This paper considers the problem of making statistical inferences about a parameter when a narrow interval centred at a given value of the parameter is considered special, which is interpreted as meaning that there is a substantial degree of prior belief that the true value of the parameter lies in this interval. A clear justification of the practical importance of this problem is provided. The main difficulty with the standard Bayesian solution to this problem is discussed and, as a result, a pseudo-Bayesian solution is put forward based on determining lower limits for the posterior probability of the parameter lying in the special interval by means of a sensitivity analysis. Since it is not assumed that prior beliefs necessarily need to be expressed in terms of prior probabilities, nor that post-data probabilities must be Bayesian posterior probabilities, hybrid methods of inference are also proposed that are based on specific ways of measuring and interpreting the classical concept of significance. The various methods that are outlined are compared and contrasted at both a foundational level, and from a practical viewpoint by applying them to real data from meta-analyses that appeared in a well-known medical article.     

The footwear factory's assembly sector: opposing organizational structure and quality from the ergonomic work analysis

Data from 2006 indicated that Brazilian footwear leather industry was composed of approximately 9,488 formally registered establishments, considering the leather industry, footwear and leather goods. It was responsible for 211,582 people employed. However, in spite of having many employees, this kind of organization found several problems when analyzed from the ergonomics view. With this premise, then, in order to identify bottlenecks and other engineering problems that could cause discomfort and motivation lack among workers, leading directly to the loss of the product quality, the assembly sector of women's shoes factory was characterized.     

A.I. Solzhenitsyn Selected Bibliography December 1962 - October 1970

Critics have noted similarities between Nikolai Gogol'’s three early horror stories (Vecher nakanune Ivana Kupala [St. John’s Eve], Strashnaia mest' [A Terrible Vengeance] Vii) and the works of his famous German predecessor Ludwig Tieck. There also exists some speculation concerning the relationship between his Ukrainian tales and the works of E.T.A. Hoffmann. However, a detailed comparison between the two authors focused only on Gogol'’s “St. Petersburg” stories. His early tales have been ignored because they were presumed to depend mostly on folklore. This article argues that there are intertextual connections between Gogol'’s St. John’s Eve and A Terrible Vengeance, and Hoffmann’s Der Sandmann [The Sandman] and Ignaz Denner. The paper contends that Gogol' was recapitulating, consciously or unconsciously, Hoffmann’s oeuvre in his works both in terms of plot detail and on a deeper psychological level.     

Stock screening with use of multiple criteria decision making and optimization

A new method for the stock ranking based on the multiple criterion decision making and optimization is proposed. Two general criteria are used in the analysis. The first of them is based on the financial indices and may be treated as the criterion of firm's “health” or its financial performance. The second one is the two-criteria performance of firm based on the stock prices. It represents the firm's market success. The method rests on the selection of the stocks with a great correlation of the firm's financial performance and its market success. The local criteria are built in the form of the membership function of corresponding fuzzy subsets. Two different strategies for stock ranking and three most popular methods for local criteria aggregation are compared. As the example the values of financial rations and prices from database comprising the data of 162 firms from subsector of the biotechnology of US economy were used. It is shown that the proposed method makes it possible to select a small group of “good” stocks characterized by a great coincidence of firm's financial performance and its market success. The method rejects from the consideration all the “unsafe” firms, i.e., such ones that their market success is based rather on the public relations, rumors and other rather unreliable information. The method is addressed to those who prefer to select for a portfolio only the firms which demonstrate the closeness of their overall financial performance in the past year and success in the Stock Exchange in the following year.     

Why resilient workers perform better: The roles of job satisfaction and work engagement

Previous studies have confirmed correlations between resilience and job performance, but surprisingly little is known about the nature of this relationship. This study sheds light on the roles of two important positive dimensions of work-related well-being: job satisfaction and work engagement. Data were collected from 360 Czech workers in helping professions using an online survey. Levels of resilience and perceived job performance were indeed positively associated. Using structural equation modeling, the best-fitting model showed partial mediation by work engagement; conversely, job satisfaction was not found to be a mediator of this relationship. Additionally, the finding that job performance is related more strongly to work engagement than to job satisfaction contributes to the debate about the concurrent validity of job attitudes.     

Reliability analysis of man–machine systems using fuzzy cognitive mapping with genetic tuning

This article offers a method for analyzing the reliability of a man–machine system (MMS) and ranking of influencing factors based on a fuzzy cognitive map (FCM). The ranking of influencing factors is analogous to the ranking of system elements the probabilistic theory of reliability. To approximate the dependence of “influencing factors—reliability,” the relationship of variable increments is used, which ensures the sensitivity of the reliability level to variations in the levels of influencing factors. The novelty of the method lies in the fact that the expert values of the weights of the FCM graph edges (arcs) are adjusted based on the results of observations using a genetic algorithm. The algorithm's chromosomes are generated from the intervals of acceptable values of edge weights, and the selection criterion is the sum of squares of deviations of the reliability simulation results from observations. The method is illustrated by the example of a multifactor analysis of the reliability of the “driver–car–road” system. It is shown that the FCM adjustment reduces the discrepancy between the reliability forecast and observations almost in half. Possible applications of the method can be complex systems with vaguely defined structures whose reliability depends very much on interrelated factors measured expertly.