Reduced Risk-Taking After Prior Losses in Pathological Gamblers Under Treatment and Healthy Control Group but not in Problem Gamblers

A group of pathological gamblers and a group of problem gamblers (i.e., gamblers at risk of becoming pathological) were compared to healthy controls on their risk-taking propensity after prior losses. Each participant played both the Balloon Analogue Risk Taking task (BART) and a modified version of the same task, where individuals face five repeated predetermined early losses at the onset of the game. No significant difference in risk-taking was found between groups on the standard BART task, while significant differences emerged when comparing behaviors in the two tasks: both pathological gamblers and controls reduced their risk-taking tendency after prior losses in the modified BART compared to the standard BART, whereas problem gamblers showed no reduction in risk-taking after prior losses. We interpret these results as a sign of a reduced sensitivity to negative feedback in problem gamblers which might contribute to explain their loss-chasing tendency.     

Perceptions and expectations of price changes and inflation: A review and conceptual framework

Drawing on relevant literature from a diverse range of academic disciplines we present a conceptual framework intended to further our understanding of perceptions and expectations of price changes and inflation. Based on this framework, we provide a detailed review of the literature and an analysis of open issues in current research. The review is primarily concerned with individuals’ perceptions and expectations of price changes and inflation, which can influence individuals’ economic behaviour (e.g. spending and saving decisions). The main insight from the review is that while consumers may have a limited ability to store and recall specific prices, and even succumb to a number of biases in the way in which they form perceptions and expectations of global price changes, they do seem to have some feel for, and ability to judge and forecast, inflation. How they achieve this, however, is still an open question, although plausible explanations have been proposed. While much important research has been undertaken and significant progress made in our understanding of the psychology of inflation, there remain many unanswered questions and interesting avenues for future research, which are discussed in the final part of the paper.     

Risk evaluation of investment projects

A survey is given of techniques for evaluation of risk in individual capital investment projects. The paper identifies the four types of relationships affecting project uncertainty: (1) Accounting-type relationships defining cash flow; (2) Statistical relationships among variables in a given time period; (3) Autocorrelation relationships among cash flows over time; and (4) Uncertainty about project life. Two types of decisions also can affect project profitability and uncertainty: (1) Strategy decisions; and (2) Abandonment decisions. Four types of models for risk evaluation are identified: (1) Certainty model; (2) Hillier model; (3) Monte Carlo model; and (4) Decision Tree model. These four types of models are compared and evaluated in terms of how easily they can incorporate the relationships and decisions mentioned above. Computational issues are also discussed. Suggestions are made for further research.     

Cross-National Variation in Individual Life Satisfaction: Effects of National Wealth, Human Development, and Environmental Conditions

This study adds to the literature on subjective well-being and life satisfaction by exploring variation in individual life satisfaction across countries. Understanding whether and how individual life satisfaction varies across countries is important because if the goal of development is to increase well-being, we must identify the causes of well-being in different national and regional contexts. Using hierarchical linear modeling techniques, I test the hypothesis that individual well-being does vary across countries, and that national wealth, human development and environmental conditions explain this variation. I also test whether the effects of individual characteristics on life satisfaction (including age, marital status, education, income, employment status, and sex) vary across countries, and which country level characteristics explain these variations. Using individual level data from the World Values Survey, I find that there is significant variation in life satisfaction across countries. There is also significant variation in the slopes of individual predictors of life satisfaction across countries and regions. Regional differences in the effects of individual characteristics on life satisfaction explain most of the between country variation in life satisfaction. This indicates that universal development indicators may not adequately reflect differences in life satisfaction across countries, and that development measurements should better reflect regional differences.

From communism to market: business models and governance in heritage conservation in Poland

The paper focuses on the effect of business model and governance changes on conservation and access outcomes in three heritage sites in Poland: Ksiaz Castle, the Shrine of Our Lady of Grace Abbey and the Jelenia Gora Valley historic palaces. It argues that the interplay between business model and governance led by relevant political, administrative and economic changes has an impact on which historic buildings are conserved for future generations, in what form, and with which functions. Findings from the case studies allow us to design three ideal business models for the management of heritage sites. The paper also explores implications for management research regarding business model and public sector change.

     

The Relation Between Probability and Evidence Judgment: An Extension of Support Theory

We propose a theory that relates perceived evidence to numerical probability judgment. The most successful prior account of this relation is Support Theory, advanced in Tversky and Koehler (1994). Support Theory, however, implies additive probability estimates for binary partitions. In contrast, superadditivity has been documented in Macchi, Osherson, and Krantz (1999), and both sub- and superadditivity appear in the experiments reported here. Nonadditivity suggests asymmetry in the processing of focal and nonfocal hypotheses, even within binary partitions. We extend Support Theory by revising its basic equation to allow such asymmetry, and compare the two equations' ability to predict numerical assessments of probability from scaled estimates of evidence for and against a given proposition. Both between- and within-subject experimental designs are employed for this purpose. We find that the revised equation is more accurate than the original Support Theory equation. The implications of asymmetric processing on qualitative assessments of chance are also briefly discussed.