对关于统计推断性质的十四个难以理解和有待澄清的问题的思考（下）

十四、概率上限和概率下限在理论和实际中有什么作用?　　由于具体的或认识上的概率的上、下限产生于不同的环境,短语概率“上限”和概率“下限”可以从不同的角度来解释。在格罗宁根,从20世纪70年代中期以来,就有一种对后验概率构造置信区间的传统[126,4]。在罗吉斯蒂回归中,即使对比例风险回归模型,也可得到类似的结果,见[70,17]。标准误和置信限加深了评估中涉及的统计不确定性的印象。除了这些统计不确定性外,还存在系统误差引起的不确定性:参数模型在某种程度上总是错误的。因此将精力集中在这些统计不确定性上多少是一种误导。然而在…     

对关于统计推断性质的十四个难以理解和有待澄清的问题的思考（中）

四、是否应该把非参数和半参数表示法强加进似然方法的框架中?　　但尼尔·贝努利[21]曾预言似然方法拥有渐进有效、对于大多数参数问题行之有效的可计算性等优点。如果参数的数目与观测值的数目成比例地增长,这些优点就会逊色不少。结果的不一致性和识别问题(属于变量误差模型     

Four criteria to evaluate providers' service-delivery response to new contraceptive introduction

This article presents an evaluation framework developed to assess the first-level effects of introducing the Standard Days Method (SDM) in Peru Ministry of Health clinics. Four questions are asked: 1) To what extent do providers routinely achieve SDM service delivery standards? 2) Is the time invested in SDM delivery consistent with program norms? 3) How does SDM delivery compare with delivery of established methods? and 4) How does SDM introduction affect delivery of established methods? A study at 62 clinics demonstrated the framework's usefulness. The Standard Days Method introduction had positive overall effects on the quality of care but provider training needed adjustments.     

A simple two-stage design for quantitative responses with application to a study in diabetic neuropathic pain

Two-stage designs offer substantial advantages for early phase II studies. The interim analysis following the first stage allows the study to be stopped for futility, or more positively, it might lead to early progression to the trials needed for late phase II and phase III. If the study is to continue to its second stage, then there is an opportunity for a revision of the total sample size. Two-stage designs have been implemented widely in oncology studies in which there is a single treatment arm and patient responses are binary. In this paper the case of two-arm comparative studies in which responses are quantitative is considered. This setting is common in therapeutic areas other than oncology. It will be assumed that observations are normally distributed, but that there is some doubt concerning their standard deviation, motivating the need for sample size review. The work reported has been motivated by a study in diabetic neuropathic pain, and the development of the design for that trial is described in detail.     

Activism among older women in Quebec, Canada: changing the world after age 65

The aim of this article is to examine senior women's involvement experience in Quebec, Canada. Study results are based on a qualitative methodology, and shed light on family history and continuity in the involvement trajectory, diversity in terms of group type and involvement practices, and gender differences in involvement. The meaning that older women attribute to their involvement is also addressed, including attitudes toward feminism. The discussion highlights the extent to which older women's involvement has been marked by their life trajectories, above and beyond their age. In sum, their involvement in the private and public spheres is quite impressive.     

Mothers, daughters and midlife (self)-discoveries: Gender and aging in the Amanda Cross' Kate Fansler series

In the same way that many aspects of gender cannot be understood aside from their relationship to race, class, culture, nationality and/or sexuality, the interactions between gender and aging constitute an interesting field for academic research, without which we cannot gain full insight into the complex and multi-faceted nature of gender studies. Although the American writer and Columbia professor Carolyn Gold Heilbrun (1926-2003) is more widely known for her best-selling mystery novels, published under the pseudonym of Amanda Cross, she also authored remarkable pieces of non-fiction in which she asserted her long-standing commitment to feminism, while she also challenged established notions on women and aging and advocated for a reassessment of those negative views. To my mind, the Kate Fansler novels became an instrument to reach a massive audience of female readers who might not have read her non-fiction, but who were perhaps finding it difficult to reach fulfillment as women under patriarchy, especially upon reaching middle age. Taking her essays in feminism and literary criticism as a basis and her later fiction as substantiation to my argument, this paper will try to reveal the ways in which Heilbrun's seemingly more superficial and much more commercial mystery novels as Amanda Cross were used a catalyst that informed her feminist principles while vindicating the need to rethink about issues concerning literary representations of mature women and cultural stereotypes about motherhood.     

Specialisation and training for fire-fighters driving heavy rescue vehicles: consequences for the development of operators?

This work was undertaken in France at the request of a local fire and rescue school in order to conduct an analysis of driving two types of heavy rescue vehicle with a view to improving training. This study took place in a context of specialisation: the drivers of these vehicles will henceforth only perform this type of task. Consequently, specific training has been designed in advance. Our study concerns the improvement of this training, taking account of the particularities of driving these vehicles in emergency situations typical to the profession of fire-fighters. The results stress first that driving of rescue vehicles in emergency situations is a multidimensional collective activity. Driving strategies identified share certain common objectives: "optimising trajectories", warn other road users, anticipate their behaviour and leave room for manoeuvre to counter and react to any unexpected behaviour. They include risks management for the potential victims of the incident and the risk of accidents during the journey. These initial results help identify certain recommendations for the training courses dealing with driving vehicles in emergency situations. They also provide a warning concerning the possible consequences of driver specialisation.     

Invisible computer for collaborative design: evaluation of a multimodal sketch-based environment

In the areas of design, especially in architectural design, collaboration has become an important challenge. The specialization of skills increase, work teams are more and more extensive and the geographic distance between them increases too. The economic and ecological stakes related to remote collaboration are an evidence. This context involves the need to support most efficiently possible remote working meetings. We present the Distributed Collaborative Digital Studio (DSDC), a tool designed to recreate, in distant situations, the context of copresence meetings. This shared environment is created in the "invisible computer" approach [11]. The idea is that the tool should disappear from user's consciousness. Indeed, creative design activities require some fluidity in their process. Therefore, any involuntary interruption created by the system can potentially brake creativity. In this perspective, we investigate specifically the "invisibility" of our environment. To do this, we propose a framework for the operationalization of the concept and a methodology to test the system invisibility. This methodology was applied through a case study consisting of a corpus of 12 hours of remote collaborative design sessions with the DSDC. We highlight the learning effects while using our system, conclude on its effectiveness and discuss our methodology.     

Issues concerning scientific production of including people with disabilities at work

This article presents the results of a survey carried out on leading periodicals in the areas of Ergonomics, Physiotherapy and Occupational Therapy, the aim of which was to identify scientific publications on the inclusion at work of people with disabilities. The survey of articles published on this topic in the following journals was conducted in December 2010: Applied Ergonomics, Ergonomics, the International Journal of Industrial Ergonomics, Disability and Rehabilitation, and the Journal of Occupational Rehabilitation. The survey covered issues published between 2000 and 2010 and was conducted electronically using the CAPES Periodicals Portal. To collect the articles, it was necessary to check the articles published in each of the issues of each volume of these periodicals. This is how the articles on the topic in question were found. There were 27 articles on the topic of inclusion at work of people with disabilities, of which 13 were published in the Journal of Occupational Rehabilitation and 12 in Disability and Rehabilitation. Thus, it is clear that the issue in question is still a subject that is seldom dealt with in these publications and it is noted that only two articles were published in Ergonomics journals in this period, thus confirming the paucity of scientific publications on this subject.