A Bayesian model for estimating the malaria transition probabilities considering individuals lost to follow-up

It is known that patients may cease participating in a longitudinal study and become lost to follow-up. The objective of this article is to present a Bayesian model to estimate the malaria transition probabilities considering individuals lost to follow-up. We consider a homogeneous population, and it is assumed that the considered period of time is small enough to avoid two or more transitions from one state of health to another. The proposed model is based on a Gibbs sampling algorithm that uses information of lost to follow-up at the end of the longitudinal study. To simulate the unknown number of individuals with positive and negative states of malaria at the end of the study and lost to follow-up, two latent variables were introduced in the model. We used a real data set and a simulated data to illustrate the application of the methodology. The proposed model showed a good fit to these data sets, and the algorithm did not show problems of convergence or lack of identifiability. We conclude that the proposed model is a good alternative to estimate probabilities of transitions from one state of health to the other in studies with low adherence to follow-up.     

Optimizing the Quantity/Quality Trade-Off in Connectome Inference

We demonstrate a meaningful prospective power analysis for an (admittedly idealized) illustrative connectome inference task. Modeling neurons as vertices and synapses as edges in a simple random graph model, we optimize the trade-off between the number of (putative) edges identified and the accuracy of the edge identification procedure. We conclude that explicit analysis of the quantity/quality trade-off is imperative for optimal neuroscientific experimental design. In particular, identifying edges faster/more cheaply, but with more error, can yield superior inferential performance.