Stochastic Forecasting of Labor Supply and Population: An Integrated Model

This paper presents a stochastic model to forecast the German population and labor supply until 2060. Within a cohort-component approach, our population forecast applies principal components analysis to birth, mortality, emigration, and immigration rates, which allows for the reduction of dimensionality and accounts for correlation of the rates. Labor force participation rates are estimated by means of an econometric time series approach. All time series are forecast by stochastic simulation using the bootstrap method. As our model also distinguishes between German and foreign nationals, different developments in fertility, migration, and labor participation could be predicted. The results show that even rising birth rates and high levels of immigration cannot break the basic demographic trend in the long run. An important finding from an endogenous modeling of emigration rates is that high net migration in the long run will be difficult to achieve. Our stochastic perspective suggests therefore a high probability of substantially decreasing the labor supply in Germany.     

(Sub) Optimality and (non) optimal satisficing in risky decision experiments

We implement a risky choice experiment based on one-dimensional choice variables and risk neutrality induced via binary lottery incentives. Each participant confronts many parameter constellations with varying optimal payoffs. We assess (sub)optimality, as well as (non)optimal satisficing by eliciting aspirations in addition to choices. Treatments differ in the probability that a binary random event, which are payoff—but not optimal choice—relevant is experimentally induced and whether participants choose portfolios directly or via satisficing, i.e., by forming aspirations and checking for satisficing before making their choice. By incentivizing aspiration formation, we can test satisficing, and in cases of satisficing, determine whether it is optimal.     

Codependent VAR models and the pseudo-structural form

This paper investigates whether codependence restrictions can be uniquely imposed on VAR models via the so-called pseudo-structural form used in the literature. Codependence of order q is given if a linear combination of autocorrelated variables eliminates the serial correlation after q lags. Importantly, maximum likelihood estimation and likelihood ratio testing are only possible if the codependence restrictions can be uniquely imposed. Applying the pseudo-structural form, our study reveals that this is not generally the case, but that unique imposition is guaranteed in several important special cases.     

Burnout among mental health professionals: special considerations for the marriage and family therapist

Burnout is a syndrome consisting of physical and emotional exhaustion resulting from negative self-concept, negative job attitudes, and loss of concern for clients. This research study explores potential predictors and prevalence of burnout among marriage and family therapists (MFTs). It evaluates the Maslach Burnout Inventory (MBI) to establish its applicability to MFTs. Our sample of 116 Clinical Members of the American Association for Marriage and Family Therapy responded to a mailed questionnaire including demographic information and the MBI. Overall, our sample reported low-to-moderate ranges of burnout. Differences were noted in degrees of burnout across job settings. Predictors of clinician burnout include hours worked per week and job setting. Factor analysis indicates that the MBI is an appropriate assessment tool for measuring burnout among MFTs. Implications for clinical practice are discussed.     

Five-year all-cause mortality rates across five categories of substantiated elder abuse occurring in the community

ABSTRACT

Elder abuse increases the likelihood of early mortality, but little is known regarding which types of abuse may be resulting in the greatest mortality risk. This study included N = 1,670 cases of substantiated elder abuse and estimated the 5-year all-cause mortality for five types of elder abuse (caregiver neglect, physical abuse, emotional abuse, financial exploitation, and polyvictimization). Statistically significant differences in 5-year mortality risks were found between abuse types and across gender. Caregiver neglect and financial exploitation had the lowest survival rates, underscoring the value of considering the long-term consequences associated with different forms of abuse. Likewise, mortality differences between genders and abuse types indicate the need to consider this interaction in elder abuse case investigations and responses. Further mortality studies are needed in this population to better understand these patterns and implications for public health and clinical management of community-dwelling elder abuse victims.     

Gender-related Effect of Cultural Participation in Psychological Well-being: Indications from the Well-being Project in the Municipality of Milan

Gender differences have been observed in the way males and females process cognitive stimuli coming from exposure to works of art and participation in leisure activities. For this reason, we designed a project to assess this issue, with a cross-sectional study in Milan, on a sample of the population consisting in 1,000 inhabitants. Our objective was to assess how cultural participation affects subjective well-being, measured with the Psychological General Well-being Scale, which gives a global index of psychological well-being ranging from 0 (lowest level of well-being) to 110 (highest level of well-being). The survey was conducted with the assistance of Doxa, an Italian pollster company, through telephone interviews, according to the Computer Aided Telephone Interview system. A significant statistical difference in variable distribution between the two genders was found for civil status (more males resulted as being single and more women widowed), income (higher income in males), cultural participation (higher in males) and psychological well-being (higher in males). As expected, state of health has the maximum impact on the level of psychological well-being. The increase in the number of concomitant diseases is in fact linearly associated with a progressive increase in psychological distress with average scores of around 60 (very low level of well-being), in the presence of 5 or more concomitant diseases, in both males and females. The impact profile of nine major determinants on subjective well-being resulted to be clearly different in the two genders. Health status dominates in both, but its impact is higher in females than in males. The obtained results remained substantially unchanged also when the two gender groups were matched according to civil status and income level distribution. Leisure activities play an important role in females (second place after health status), while in males they result as being less important (fourth place after health status, civil status and occupation). Education is quite important for females (third place), while it is given the least importance in males. This different profile probably reflects different social and environmental influences on the two genders. The social and psychological implications of these findings are discussed.     

Inference from PseudoLikelihoods with Plug‐In Estimates

Effective implementation of likelihood inference in models for high‐dimensional data often requires a simplified treatment of nuisance parameters, with these having to be replaced by handy estimates. In addition, the likelihood function may have been simplified by means of a partial specification of the model, as is the case when composite likelihood is used. In such circumstances tests and confidence regions for the parameter of interest may be constructed using Wald type and score type statistics, defined so as to account for nuisance parameter estimation or partial specification of the likelihood. In this paper a general analytical expression for the required asymptotic covariance matrices is derived, and suggestions for obtaining Monte Carlo approximations are presented. The same matrices are involved in a rescaling adjustment of the log likelihood ratio type statistic that we propose. This adjustment restores the usual chi‐squared asymptotic distribution, which is generally invalid after the simplifications considered. The practical implication is that, for a wide variety of likelihoods and nuisance parameter estimates, confidence regions for the parameters of interest are readily computable from the rescaled log likelihood ratio type statistic as well as from the Wald type and score type statistics. Two examples, a measurement error model with full likelihood and a spatial correlation model with pairwise likelihood, illustrate and compare the procedures. Wald type and score type statistics may give rise to confidence regions with unsatisfactory shape in small and moderate samples. In addition to having satisfactory shape, regions based on the rescaled log likelihood ratio type statistic show empirical coverage in reasonable agreement with nominal confidence levels.