Deep Uncertainties in Sea-Level Rise and Storm Surge Projections: Implications for Coastal Flood Risk Management

Sea levels are rising in many areas around the world, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructures. Strategies for managing these flood risks present decision challenges that require a combination of geophysical, economic, and infrastructure models. Previous studies have broken important new ground on the considerable tensions between the costs of upgrading infrastructure and the damages that could result from extreme flood events. However, many risk-based adaptation strategies remain silent on certain potentially important uncertainties, as well as the tradeoffs between competing objectives. Here, we implement and improve on a classic decision-analytical model (Van Dantzig 1956) to: (i) capture tradeoffs across conflicting stakeholder objectives, (ii) demonstrate the consequences of structural uncertainties in the sea-level rise and storm surge models, and (iii) identify the parametric uncertainties that most strongly influence each objective using global sensitivity analysis. We find that the flood adaptation model produces potentially myopic solutions when formulated using traditional mean-centric decision theory. Moving from a single-objective problem formulation to one with multiobjective tradeoffs dramatically expands the decision space, and highlights the need for compromise solutions to address stakeholder preferences. We find deep structural uncertainties that have large effects on the model outcome, with the storm surge parameters accounting for the greatest impacts. Global sensitivity analysis effectively identifies important parameter interactions that local methods overlook, and that could have critical implications for flood adaptation strategies.     

Some chance for consensus: voting methods for which consensus is an equilibrium

We introduce the following basic voting method: voters submit both a “consensus” and a “fall-back” ballot. If all “consensus” ballots name the same option, it wins; otherwise, a randomly drawn “fall-back” ballot decides. If there is one potential consensus option that everyone prefers to the benchmark lottery which picks the favorite of a randomly drawn voter, then naming that option on all “consensus” ballots builds a very strong form of correlated equilibrium. Unlike common consensus procedures, ours is not biased toward the status quo and removes incentives to block consensus. Variants of the method allow for large groups, partial consensus, and choosing from several potential consensus options.     

Transformational leadership and optimal functioning at work: On the mediating role of employees' perceived job characteristics and motivation

This study aimed to deepen our understanding of the motivational mechanisms involved in the relationship between transformational leadership (TFL) and employee functioning. Drawing on the TFL literature, the job demands–resources model and self-determination theory, we propose an integrative model that relates TFL to employee psychological health (burnout and psychological distress), attitudes (occupational commitment and turnover intention) and performance (professional efficacy, self-reported individual and objective organizational performance) through two explanatory mechanisms: perceived job characteristics (job demands and resources) and employee motivation (autonomous and controlled). This research was conducted in two occupational settings (nurses and school principals), using a distinct variable operationalization for each. Results of both studies provide support for the hypothesized model, suggesting that TFL relates to optimal job functioning (psychological health, job attitudes and performance) by contributing to favourable perceptions of job characteristics (more resources and less demands) and high-quality work motivation (more autonomous motivation and less controlled motivation) in employees. Theoretical contributions and managerial implications as well as directions for future research are presented.     

On the psychological and motivational processes linking job characteristics to employee functioning: Insights from self-determination theory

The aim of this study was to provide insight into the differential relationships between job characteristics (job demands and resources) and employee functioning by examining the psychological and motivational processes involved. Drawing on self-determination theory, we tested a model in which job demands are positively related to negative manifestations of employee functioning (psychological distress and psychosomatic complaints) through psychological need frustration and low-quality work motivation (controlled motivation), whereas job resources are positively related to positive manifestations of employee functioning (work engagement and job performance) through need satisfaction and high-quality work motivation (autonomous motivation). Data were collected from 699 Canadian nurses. Structural equation modelling (SEM) results support the proposed model: psychological needs and work motivation partially mediated the relationship between job characteristics and employee functioning. Specifically, job demands negatively predicted employee functioning (high distress and psychosomatic complaints, low engagement and performance) through need frustration and controlled motivation. In contrast, while positively predicting need satisfaction and negatively predicting need frustration, job resources fostered optimal work motivation (more autonomous and less controlled motivation) and employee functioning. The implications for self-determination theory (SDT) and research on occupational health and stress are discussed.     

正算法与倒算法林价差额的森林环境价值分析

该文运用劳动价值论分析了森林环境资源 ,认为森林资源的使用价值既包括实物资源的使用价值 ,又包括环境资源的使用价值。这两种使用价值具有生产的整体性和消费的顺序可分离性的特点 ,因而成为森林资源培育过程中的一般人类劳动所创造价值的共同载体。正算法林价是根据森林资源培育过程中所有物化劳动转移价值和活劳动消耗的累积来计算价值量的 ,因此 ,正算法林价既包括森林实物资源价值 ,也包括森林环境资源价值 ;而倒算法林价仅为立木价值。正算法与倒算法林价的差额的主体部分是森林环境资源价值。     

Using research questionnaires with young people in schools: the influence of the social context

Whilst there is an extensive literature on the use of self-completion questionnaires as a research tool, very little attention has been paid to the influence of the social context in determining the ways in which questionnaires are used in practice. This paper describes our experiences of working with 27 English, mixed sex, state schools to carry out a questionnaire survey with 4754 students aged 13–14 years. The survey was part of a randomized controlled trial of peer led sex education. Using data from the questionnaires and from researcher fieldnotes, we highlight ways in which aspects of the social context affected the administration of the questionnaire, students' participation in the survey and the quality of the data collected.     

Targeting occupations with varying reputations to increase tax revenue

If the government's goal is to raise tax revenue in a cost-effective manner, which (if any) occupation categories could be targeted with a higher probability of an audit to yield increased revenue? Looking beyond mere opportunity to evade (e.g., self-employment) and starting from the premise that taxpayers in certain occupations evade more than others, the issue is whether these taxpayers respond to a change in the audit rate. Theory suggests that compliance increases in response to higher audit rates; the occupations with the higher evaders could therefore be targeted. This theory is tested by drawing a connection between occupation, reputation, and tax compliance. We assume that taxpayers in occupations with high need for reputation respond to a lower extent to increased tax audits than taxpayers whose achievement does not depend on reputation. The results support the effectiveness of raising tax revenue by targeting specific occupations, non-managers, with a higher probability of an audit.     

世界家具消费、生产、贸易状况及发展趋势分析

家具生产是世界经济的重要组成部分 ,近年来世界家具需求不断增长 ,尤其家具国际贸易的增长速度惊人。目前欧美等发达国家占据了世界家具消费、生产和贸易的主体 ,但发展中国家的份额正逐渐上升 ,世界家具生产正在发生结构性变化。该文认为 ,世界家具业呈现六大发展趋势 ,并针对中国家具业存在的问题 ,提出了中国家具业发展的对策和建议。     

Properties of two tests for outliers in multivariate data

Mardia's multivariate kurtosis and the generalized distance have desirable properties as multivariate outlier tests. However, extensive critical values have not been published heretofore. A published approximation formula for critical values of the kurtosis is shown to inadequately control the type I error rate, with observed error rates often differing from their intended values by a factor of two or more. Critical values derived from simulations for both tests for up to 25 dimensions and 500 observations are presented. The power curves of both tests are discussed. The generalized distance is the more powerful test when exactly one outlier is present and the contaminant is substantially mean-shifted. However, as the number of outliers increases, the kurtosis becomes the more powerful test. The two tests are compared with respect to power and vulnerability to masking. Recommendations for the use of these tests and interpretation of results are given.     

COHORT DIFFERENCES IN THE TRANSITION TO MOTHERHOOD:

Although research has found that educational attainment is a major predictor of age at first childbirth, this association may not be consistent across cohorts. In this article, we examine the adult transitions of four cohorts of married white women (N = 306), born between 1907 and 1933, including in our life course model not only education but also employment before marriage. As hypothesized, employment before marriage is the best predictor of the age at first childbirth among women entering adulthood prior to the end of World War II. In contrast, women in the early postwar years were moderately more likely to postpone childbearing due to educational pursuits.