Climate change and population migration in Brazil’s Northeast: scenarios for 2025–2050

This research contributes to an understanding of the relationship between climate change, economic impacts and migration. We model the long-term relationship (up to 45 years of projection) between demographic dynamics—particularly migration—driven by changes in the performance of the economy due to climate changes in the Northeast region of Brazil. The region is of particular relevance to the study of climate change impacts given its large human population (28% of Brazil’s population) and high levels of impoverishment, having an extensive semi-dry area which will be severely impacted by growing temperatures. Ultimately, the integrated model generates state- and municipal-level migration scenarios based on climate change impacts on the primary economic sectors and their articulations with other sectors. Results suggest that the predicted climate changes will impact severely the agriculture sector in the region, acting as a potential migration push factor to other regions in the country. Finally, we discuss how the increased vulnerability of some groups, particularly migrants, can be factored into Brazilian public policy and planning.     

Causality and interdependence analysis in linear econometric models with an application to fertility

This paper is an applied analysis of the causal structure of linear multi-equational econometric models. Its aim is to identify the kind of relationships linking the endogenous variables of the model, distinguishing between causal links and feedback loops. The investigation is first carried out within a deterministic framework and then moves on to show how the results may change inside a more realistic stochastic context. The causal analysis is then specifically applied to a linear simultaneous equation model explaining fertility rates. The analysis is carried out by means of a specific RATS programming code designed to show the specific nature of the relationships within the model.     

The Resistible Rise of Sarah Palin: Continuity and Paradox in the American Right Wing1

Sarah Palin clearly holds a powerful appeal for a right‐wing constituency although even her most fervent followers may doubt that she is electable. This article examines the basis of her appeal. We argue that it can be summed up as an appeal to American authenticity, which consists of several elements: the valorization of small town ordinary life takes second place to faith and religious commitment; an equal faith in American exceptionality implies that Americans should never be apologetic about their country and never waver in their belief in its special greatness; the final elements are a foundational libertarian creed and a peculiar brand of right‐wing populism. However, for all her affinities with classical right‐wing sentiment, Sarah Palin, we argue, brings something new to the mix: a genuinely maverick right‐wing feminism. That is why in the end, we call the Palin phenomenon a paradoxical one.     

Measuring and Analysing Community Action for Health: An Indicator-Based Typology and Its Application to the Case of Barcelona

Social welfare systems face major challenges, particularly in a context of social transformation, austerity and growing inequalities. This process is highly visible in the health sector. In this context, many voices ask for public sector reforms and community action for health as a relevant practice. However, analyses and evaluations of this kind of practices are still limited, particularly beyond the cases of single community health actions or interventions. We still need to identify key indicators for measuring and characterising what community action for health consists of, as well as to what degree this kind of intervention has been developed across a city. Based on a research about 49 neighborhoods in Barcelona, this paper creates an index to measure and characterize community action for health, using different indicators: citizen engagement programs in community health, organizational transformation of the health and social protection systems, stable participatory structures with specific teams, and urban health policies. We apply the index to the case of Barcelona and build a map of community action for health in the city using 4 categories: strong community health development (one neighbourhood), middle (9 neighborhoods), emergent (25 neighborhoods) and without specific community health promotion (14 neighbourhoods). We find that community action for health is extensive within the city of Barcelona, have great potential as a response to the need for change in the relationship between the public (health) sector and the citizenry, but is still implemented unequally across the urban territory in terms of types and methods.     

Book reviews

Sociocybernetics: Complexity, Dynamics and Emergence in Social Science Kybernetes, Vol. 26, No. 6/7 F. Geyer (Ed.) MCB University Press, Bradford, ISSN 0368–492X

Foundations of Futures Studies Wendell Bell New Brunswick, London, Transaction Publishers, 1997     

SPORTING EVENTS,EMOTIONAL CUES,AND CRIME: SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EVIDENCE FROM BRAZILIAN SOCCER GAMES

Utilizing a novel data set of police reports that provides granular street‐ and vehicle‐level information on vehicle thefts and robberies in the city of São Paulo, Brazil, we explore the impact of soccer games and their outcomes on crime and study its spatial heterogeneity. Estimates from a regression discontinuity design suggest that crime increases immediately after home games in streets that are within a tight radius from the stadiums. The effect is driven by vehicle thefts with popular car models being more likely to be targeted and is particularly salient after upset losses and derby games.(JEL D91, R12, Z2)