Bias Correction in the Dynamic Panel Data Model with a Nonscalar Disturbance Covariance Matrix

Approximation formulae are developed for the bias of ordinary and generalized Least Squares Dummy Variable (LSDV) estimators in dynamic panel data models. Results from Kiviet [Kiviet, J. F. (1995), on bias, inconsistency, and efficiency of various estimators in dynamic panel data models, J. Econometrics68:53-78; Kiviet, J. F. (1999), Expectations of expansions for estimators in a dynamic panel data model: some results for weakly exogenous regressors, In: Hsiao, C., Lahiri, K., Lee, L-F., Pesaran, M. H., eds., Analysis of Panels and Limited Dependent Variables, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, pp. 199-225] are extended to higher-order dynamic panel data models with general covariance structure. The focus is on estimation of both short- and long-run coefficients. The results show that proper modelling of the disturbance covariance structure is indispensable. The bias approximations are used to construct bias corrected estimators which are then applied to quarterly data from 14 European Union countries. Money demand functions for M1, M2 and M3 are estimated for the EU area as a whole for the period 1991: I-1995: IV. Significant spillovers between countries are found reflecting the dependence of domestic money demand on foreign developments. The empirical results show that in general plausible long-run effects are obtained by the bias corrected estimators. Moreover, finite sample bias, although of moderate magnitude, is present underlining the importance of more refined estimation techniques. Also the efficiency gains by exploiting the heteroscedasticity and cross-correlation patterns between countries are sometimes considerable.     

Demographic transition theory

Demography is a science short on theory, rich in quantification. Nevertheless, demography has produced one of the best documented generalizations in the social sciences: the demographic transition. What is the demographic transition? Stripped to its essentials it is the theory that societies progress from a pre-modern regime of high fertility and high mortality to a post-modern regime of low fertility and low mortality. The cause of the transition has been sought in the reduction of the death rate by controlling epidemic and contagious diseases. Then, with modernization, children become more costly. Cultural changes weaken the importance of children. The increasing empowerment of women to make their own reproductive decisions leads to smaller families. Thus there is a change in values, emphasizing the quality of children rather than their quantity. In short, the fertility transition is becoming universal phenomenon, in which every country may be placed on a continuum of progress in the transition.     

Unjust Freedom: The Ethics of Client Self-Determination in Runaway Youth Shelters

Client self-determination has been called the most confounding and professionally debilitating concept of all the intellectual principles under-girding social work (Rothman, 1989). Identifying the appropriate parameters of client self-determination is a particularly acute problem for social workers employed by runaway and homeless youth shelters where minors are making adult decisions free from parental guidance. We examine the ethical dimensions of practice with minor clients in runaway shelters by arguing that a conflict exists between the liberty-based principle of self-determination and the justice-based notion of client competency. We analyze the conflict by using minimal distributive justice as the organizing principle of social work practice. We conclude that client self-determination in runaway shelters should be restricted and that presuming client competence violates the basic value tenets of the profession.     

The Impact of Macro- and Micro-Economic Uncertainty on Family Formation in The Netherlands

In this paper, we study the impact of macro- and micro-economic uncertainty on family formation between 1970 and 2000 in The Netherlands. Using data of the Family Survey Dutch Population, we analysed the monthly hazard rates of experiencing the transition into first union, first marriage and parenthood after the start of the relationship of 365 male and 364 female partners by applying piecewise-constant exponential models. The results show that macro-economic uncertainties, i.e. high unemployment rates, lead to postponement of the first union and marriage, but not of the first child. In addition, we found that this relationship is not interpreted by individual-level employment insecurity, i.e. temporary employment or unemployment, which does not seem to prevent people from making long-term family commitments. Although hypothesized, we did not find that the negative effects of macro- and micro-level insecurities on family formation reinforce each other or that they vary between individuals with different educational qualifications.     

The Impact of Macro-Economic Circumstances and Social Protection Expenditure on Economic Deprivation in 25 European Countries, 2007–2011

In this study, we investigate to what extent macro-economic circumstances and social protection expenditure affect economic deprivation. We use three items from round five of the European Social Survey (2010–2011) to construct our latent outcome variable, which we label economic deprivation in the 3 years before 2010–2011. The results of our linear multilevel regression analyses indicate that in countries that perform worse economically, individual experiences of economic deprivation are more prevalent: the stronger the rise in the unemployment rate and the lower a country’s wealth, the more economic deprivation individuals experience. We also find that in countries with high levels of social protection, people experience less economic deprivation as compared to countries with low levels of social protection. In turn, adverse economic conditions in a country temper these positive outcomes of social welfare arrangements. Finally, our study reveals that the strength of the relationship between a low income and economic deprivation strongly varies according to the economic circumstances in a country and the generosity of the welfare state.     

OLS and IV estimation of regression models including endogenous interaction terms

We analyze a class of linear regression models including interactions of endogenous regressors and exogenous covariates. We show how to generate instrumental variables using the nonlinear functional form of the structural equation when traditional excluded instruments are unknown. We propose to use these instruments with identification robust IV inference. We furthermore show that, whenever functional form identification is not valid, the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator of the coefficient of the interaction term is consistent and standard OLS inference applies. Using our alternative empirical methods we confirm recent empirical findings on the nonlinear causal relation between financial development and economic growth.     

联合国改革努力的历史发展

联合国改革长期以来是国际社会关注的焦点,为了理解这一进程的未来走向,有必要清醒地认识它所经历的历史发展.联合国改革涉及组织结构、管理程序以及宪制安排三个方面,涵盖国际安全以及经济和社会问题两个主要领域,反映出各国在这些问题上的不同立场和观点.联合国改革努力的不同规划表明,在这些领域取得实质性突破仍然困难重重.     

On the margins of the child protection system: creating space for relational social work practice

In the UK, a threshold divides between two categories of children, child protection (CP) and child in need. Each category tends to be treated as a homogeneous entity, despite containing heterogeneous levels and forms of risk and need. CP practice, accompanied by regulation, protocols and procedures, aspires to achieve a coordinated multi‐agency response to identified concerns with available resources targeted towards this category. However, it is well known that those children assessed as falling just below the CP threshold can still have high levels of need and risk, requiring a level of social work involvement beyond the low‐resource and low‐oversight model that generally accompanies a child in need categorisation. This paper probes an approach to practice, which divides levels of risk within the child in need category enabling adequate, coordinated support and oversight to be provided for children and families with complex needs. Evidence from our study evaluating this approach suggests that a simple protocol provided a clear process within, which social workers and agency partners felt confident and safe to practice outside of the formal CP framework. The protocol prevented drift and helped to create a space within, which relational social work practice flourished.     

Understanding barriers to healthy behaviors in black college men

Objective: Due to the short life expectancy of black men, it is important to understand what impacts health behaviors in this group so that interventions and programs can be developed to improve their health behaviors which may help in increasing the life expectancy of black men. The purpose of this study was to understand what perceived barriers exist for black college men that prevent them from engaging in healthy behaviors. Participants and Methods: Thirty-five black male students at a southern Historically Black College and University participated in five focus groups and four interviews. A qualitative analysis was used to analyze data for similar themes and codes. Results: Perceived barriers to engaging in healthy behaviors appear to be influenced by image, food cost, and education. Cues to action for not engaging in healthy behaviors appear to be related to role models. Conclusions: Black college men are not adequately informed or educated about elements that can impact their health and how they can improve it. College administrators and researchers should develop interventions that include elements of increasing health knowledge and age-appropriate role models to improve health behavior change among this group.     

Lessons learned about collaborative evaluation using the Capacity for Applying Project Evaluation (CAPE) framework with school and district leaders

Schools, districts, and state-level educational organizations are experiencing a great shift in the way they do the business of education. This shift focuses on accountability, specifically through the expectation of the effective utilization of evaluative-focused efforts to guide and support decisions about educational program implementation. In as much, education leaders need specific guidance and training on how to plan, implement, and use evaluation to critically examine district and school-level initiatives. One specific effort intended to address this need is through the Capacity for Applying Project Evaluation (CAPE) framework. The CAPE framework is composed of three crucial components: a collection of evaluation resources; a professional development model; and a conceptual framework that guides the work to support evaluation planning and implementation in schools and districts. School and district teams serve as active participants in the professional development and ultimately as formative evaluators of their own school or district-level programs by working collaboratively with evaluation experts. The CAPE framework involves the school and district staff in planning and implementing their evaluation. They are the ones deciding what evaluation questions to ask, which instruments to use, what data to collect, and how and to whom results should be reported. Initially this work is done through careful scaffolding by evaluation experts, where supports are slowly pulled away as the educators gain experience and confidence in their knowledge and skills as evaluators. Since CAPE engages all stakeholders in all stages of the evaluation, the philosophical intentions of these efforts to build capacity for formative evaluation strictly aligns with the collaborative evaluation approach.