CAN THE PRESIDENT REALLY AFFECT ECONOMIC GROWTH? PRESIDENTIAL EFFORT AND THE POLITICAL BUSINESS CYCLE

Presidential elections are often seen as referendums on the health of the economy; however, little evidence exists on the president's ability to influence gross domestic product (GDP). This study examines the effect of the incentive to be reelected and the resulting increase in presidential effort on GDP growth. Growth is found to rise in reelection years for first‐term presidents after 1932 and to fall in election years before 1932, when reelection was uncommon, and for second‐term presidents generally. This effect is largest for high‐quality presidents—who probably have the highest return to effort—and is spread across multiple sectors of the economy. (JEL D78, D72, E32, J24)     

Population constraints on pooled surveys in demographic hazard modeling

In non-experimental research, data on the same population process may be collected simultaneously by more than one instrument. For example, in the present application, two sample surveys and a population birth registration system all collect observations on first births by age and year, while the two surveys additionally collect information on women’s education. To make maximum use of the three data sources, the survey data are pooled and the population data introduced as constraints in a logistic regression equation. Reductions in standard errors about the age and birth-cohort parameters of the regression equation in the order of three-quarters are obtained by introducing the population data as constraints. A halving of the standard errors about the education parameters is achieved by pooling observations from the larger survey dataset with those from the smaller survey. The percentage reduction in the standard errors through imposing population constraints is independent of the total survey sample size.     

Cowboys and Indians

This experimental, layered, mixed‐genre narrative folds my biographical experiences into a critical reading of a cultural performance involving cowboys and Indians in a small Montana town in summer 2000. Informed by critical race theory and poststructuralism, this narrative attempts to deconstruct racial stereotypes associated with Native Americans and their presence in America's movies and popular culture.     

Beyond ‘developmentalism’: A relational and embodied approach to young children's development

This article begins by discussing ‘developmentalism’, one of the key debates that has characterised the current theoretical impasse in the development of childhood studies. I use Norbert Elias's concept of the relation between love and learning as a foundation to develop the way in which young children's development is a non-linear, temporal and embodied process. I argue that we need to develop a relational approach that moves beyond some of the binary divisions between ‘nature’ and ‘biology’, drawing on concepts from particular theoretical traditions that have been under-utilised, particularly the relational school of psychoanalysis and the work of Maurice Merleau-Ponty.